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000
FXUS62 KMHX 121930
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
330 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the area from the south this weekend and
dominates into early next week with a dry frontal passage
occurring Monday night. Ridging reestablishes itself by Tuesday
with the next potential frontal system at the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
As of 330 PM Fri...Afternoon strato cu will become more dense
this evening as a potent upr trough swings east through NC. Have
inc pops to the chc/sct range for the first part of the evening,
as dynamics are quite strong with good div aloft. Have added
thunder to the grids, as steep low/mid level lapse rates will be
in place despite the low CAPE (<400 J/KG) vals. Some small hail
(pea size) may result in the more potent/heavier showers due to
relatively cool air aloft. Gusty winds will accompany the
showers as well and may briefly gust to above 30 mph. CAA ensues
afterwards, with breezy conditions on the coast with skies
quickly clearing by midnight. Lows range from the 40s interior
to low/mid 50s beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM Fri...ENC will be under lee troughing with bluster
wrly winds cont. The atms will be quite a bit drier, and thus
humidities in the mid 20s% combined with the west winds gusting
to 25+ kt will produce an increased threat of wildfires, esp for
the Coastal Plain counties which did not receive much rain the
other night. Highs will be mainly in the low 70s, with upper 60s
on the OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM Friday...High pressure builds in from the south
and west over the weekend and settles in off the SE Coast early
next week bringing fair weather to ENC from Sat to late next
week, where our next chance of rain exists.

Sun through midweek next week...Upper trough eventually pushes
away from the Mid-Atlantic on Sun with more zonal flow
overspreading the Carolinas this weekend before upper ridging
builds across the Eastern CONUS. A weak s/w trough may track
across the Carolinas Sun night into Mon morning before ridging
establishes itself. At the surface, high pressure builds in from
the south and west on Sun before setting up in the Sargasso Sea
off the SE Coast early next week.

As a second s/w trough moves across ENC Sun night into Mon, dry
cold front approaches and outside of some elevated SW`rly winds
and additional cloud cover Sun night little in the way of
impacts will be felt from this front. Afterwards high pressure
ridging remains in place promoting dry conditions and a gradual
warming trend through Thursday. Frontal system approaches from
the west as a low lifts to our north Friday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sat/...
As of 2 PM Fri...Sct/bkn strato cu will become more bkn this
evening as a potent upr system swings through. This feature may
bring a brief pd of showers along with iso thunder. Gusty winds
to 25+ kt and small hail (pea size) are possible with the
heavier showers. Gusty winds will return after sunrise on Sat
with W winds gusting to 25+ kt though skies should be mo clear.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 3 AM Friday...Expect primarily VFR conditions through the
TAF period with a high pressure gradually building in from the
south and west through the weekend and into early next week. The
main concern will be the gusty winds on Sat with SW to W`rly
winds potentially gusting 20+ kts. Much lighter winds are then
forecast from Sun onwards.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sat/...
As of 330 PM Fri...A brief lull in the gusty winds occuring as
gusts fall below 25 kts, but as a surface trough quickly sweeps
E`wards across the region wind gusts will increase once again
tonight to 25+ kts. Have added back in the inland rivers to the
SCA suite as west winds efficient mix down the length of the
rivers. The west winds finally diminish Sat afternoon, and seas
will quickly follow suit as they are offshore winds, with SCA`s
ending all areas by 5PM.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Tuesday/...
As of 3 AM Friday...Winds finally ease Sat evening down to
10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts ending the SCA`s across our
inland waters. 4-6 ft seas north of Hatteras and 4-8 ft seas
south of Hatteras Saturday morning will gradually lower as the
winds slowly ease with widespread 3-6 ft seas found across all
waters by Sat evening. Better boating conditions remain in place
through Sun before an incoming surface trough tightens the
gradient Sun night bringing the potential for more low-end SCA
conditions before quieter weather finally returns to the marine
zones early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 3 PM Friday...The latest information from NCDOT is that
nrn section of Hwy 12 could reopen later today. Minor flooding
could linger along the soundside northern OBX north of Pea
Island through tonight and into Sat as west winds will be
sustained 20-25 kt beginning tonight.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ203.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ204.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ131-
     135>137-150-152-154-156-158-230-231.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RCF/OJC
AVIATION...TL/RCF
MARINE...TL/RCF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX