Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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055 FXUS64 KMOB 012019 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 319 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Thursday) Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 The main forecast concern for the near term will be the potential for dense fog overnight. Broad surface ridging extending from the western Atlantic will keep winds light for the overnight hours. The combination of light winds and clear skies will set the stage for low stratus and fog formation overnight. Hi-res ensembles indicate the high probabilities of visibilities less than 1 mile over much of the region overnight with a 40-60% chance of 1/4 mile visibility. The exception to this is the far inland areas (north of 84) where probabilities are lower. Best time for fog formation will be after midnight with best potential for 1/4 mile visibilities being in the pre-dawn hours to an hour or two after sunrise. Have included areas of fog in the forecast for the vast majority of the forecast area after midnight. We will have to closely monitor trends for the possible issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory. Any fog and low stratus that develop will dissipate by 9-10am Thursday, similar to what we saw this morning. Our attention then turns to a shortwave that will move into LA/MS from TX on Thursday afternoon. The shortwave will likely dampen out as it moves further east into the TN Valley Thursday night. The big question is if this shortwave will be strong enough to trigger an convective activity in the western parts of the forecast area. There will be a tight moisture gradient in place with precipitable waters of less than an inch holding serve in the eastern half of the area. Deep layer moisture could rebound enough in the western zones to support low end rain chances. Some of the CAM solutions indicate these areas could be affected by a decaying MCS. Will only introduce slight chances for rain at this point and will monitor trends. Lows drop into the 60s tonight with highs warming into the mid to upper 80s once again Thursday afternoon, with slightly cooler readings along the immediate coast. 34/JFB && .SHORT & LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 The overall synoptic pattern will not change much through mid next week with predominate upper troughing over the central and western states and a broad upper ridge over the eastern third of the country. This in general will keep the best rain chances well to our north and west. However, there are some uncertainties to contend with as guidance shows a series of subtle shortwaves ejecting out of southwest flow over northern Mexico and Texas that move into the lower MS Valley through this weekend. The impact of these disturbances is somewhat uncertain, but could serve to trigger at least isolated diurnal convection during the afternoon hours. One such shortwave will increase rain chances slightly on Friday afternoon over the western half of the area. By this weekend, we will have to monitor for the possibility of increasing rain chances slightly over inland locations. However, even in a `wetter` scenario, rain coverage would remain fairly isolated. What is more certain is that warm daytime temperatures will persist and gradually increase further by early next week. Next Tuesday and Wednesday could see our first widespread low 90 temps over inland locations. We are slowly saying bye to spring and hello to summer along the northern Gulf coast. 34/JFB && .MARINE... Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Patchy fog is possible overnight into early Thursday morning, primarily over the inland bays and sounds. Otherwise, no significant marine impacts are expected for the next several days. A light onshore flow will persist with little change in seas. Winds will be slightly strong in area bays with the afternoon seabreeze. 34/JFB && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob