Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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048 FXUS63 KMPX 171924 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 224 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance of rain across far southern Minnesota late tonight into early tomorrow morning with the next chance of more widespread rain arriving early next week. - Cooler overnight temperatures may lead to frost/freeze concerns through this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 The back edge of the cloud shield associated with the surface low that brought us our 1-2" of rain yesterday is starting work into western Minnesota early this afternoon. Showers have largely come to an end with a few areas of drizzle still ongoing across western Wisconsin. This cloud cover combined with strong cold air advection on the backside of this system has kept temperatures in the 40s and low 50s area wide today, with breezy northwest winds making it feel even cooler. Even as this surface low continues to move across the Great Lakes, these near/slightly below normal temperatures are expected to continue with a weak cold front moving through early tomorrow. This front will also be the focus for some showers late tonight into early Thursday, mainly across the southern third of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Up to a quarter inch of additional rainfall is possible before we dry out through the weekend. Temperatures will be slower to warm with strong CAA and a slow moving upper low overhead through at least early Saturday. After our recent bout of temperatures in the 70s and 80s, those who did any early planting may need to take precautions as overnight lows are expected to fall near or just below freezing tomorrow night through Sunday morning. By Sunday, temperatures look to return to the upper 50s and low 60s with this slight warming trend continuing through the end of the period. After a period of dry weather, rain chances increase Monday and Tuesday. Currently, QPF amounts are on the lower end with only a few tenths to a quarter inch expected. Once this system moves out, ridging will build in and we will see temperatures back in the mid to upper 60s through much of next week with more potential rain chances on the horizon. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 A gradual improvement from IFR to MVFR/VFR will continue through this evening as a surface low over the Great Lakes continues to pull away to the east. Winds have also become west/northwesterly and are still on the breezy side. A shift to straight westerly with gusts dropping off will occur after 00z. There is a small chance for another round of showers early Thursday morning for our southernmost terminals, but confidence wasn`t high enough for KMSP and KEAU to add anything but a PROB30 for now. Winds will pick up again by the end of the period. KMSP...As mentioned above, expecting a improvement to VFR by this evening. PROB30 for some showers has been included for early tomorrow morning, but VFR conditions are expected to prevail. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind WNW 15-25G30-40 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20-25 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind W 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dye AVIATION...Dye