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000
FXUS63 KMQT 190830
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
430 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hit and miss pops into the weekend, then drying out Sun-Mon. Low
RH`s and breezy.
-Next rain and snow event early next week and then drying out again
mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 429 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

GOES-16 WV imagery shows dry air entering the UP following the
passage of a cold front. Some moisture is still present to the north
and west where the RAP analyzes a stacked 1005mb low over northwest
Ontario. The moisture and broad lift from the parent trough passing
to the north, in addition to being in the vicinity of a left exit
region of a 125kt jet at 250mb will allow for some light rain and
snow showers throughout today, supported by diurnal heating and
orographic lift. With HREF mean total precip through this evening
being only a few hundredths of an inch and ensemble maximum QPF
being around a tenth of an inch, impacts should be minimal. It will
be a breezy day as cold advection behind the initial cold frontal
feature to the east will help mix down winds of 15 to 25 mph
throughout the day with higher gusts possible over the Keweenaw, but
the probability of frequent gusts of 45 mph is 10% or less, so no
Wind Advisories are planned. High temperatures today will be in the
lower to mid 40s due to the aforementioned cold advection, which the
wind will make it feel like it`s around 30 outside, more akin to a
late winter day than a spring day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb low just to the west
of James Bay in Ontario with the trough axis across the area 00z
Sat. The upper trough remains over the area through 12z Mon. Minor
shortwaves moving through the trough will kick off some rain and
snow showers tonight into Sat before drying out Sat night into SUn
night.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough in the
Tennessee River Valley, a closed low in southern Saskatchewan and a
deep trough across eastern Canada 12z Mon. The closed low in
southern Saskatchewan heads southeast into the upper Great Lakes 12z
Tue and opens into a trough. This trough then moves into the lower
Great Lakes 12z Wed while a broad ridge moves into the Rockies. The
ridge moves into the plains 12z Thu and into the upper Great Lakes
12z Fri. Temperatures go from near normal Mon to below normal for
Tue and Wed to above normal Thu and Fri. Rain and snow moves in
Mon night into Tue and then dries back out for Wed into Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 130 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the TAF sites for the
most part. However, there`s about a 60% chance that we could see
some high-end MVFR cigs over KCMX by the mid-morning hours today as
some light snow showers move into the Keweenaw. While the light snow
showers are also expected to develop across the rest of the U.P.
today, chances are higher (around 60% at this time) that low-end VFR
cigs will remain across KIWD and KSAW. Expect breezy westerly winds
today as a shortwave over northern Ontario continues cold air
advection across the area. In addition, while there is a 30 to 40%
chance of marginal LLWS begin realized over the TAF sites from time
to time before dawn this morning and again this evening (the highest
chance over KCMX), with the cold air advection helping to induce
mixing in the boundary layer, the higher wind speeds are more likely
to make it to the surface, even during the overnight hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

WSW winds increase to gales to 35 knots this morning as cold air
advection reduces over lake stability. The strongest winds are
expected along the northern shore of the Keweenaw due to funneling.
Winds veer NW and weaken to 20-30 kts tonight into Saturday and stay
20 to 30 knots into Sunday from the west before veering north. As
ridging builds in Sunday night, winds die down to 20 knots or less
and remain that way into Monday night. Winds become northeast and
increase up to 30 knots on Tuesday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Saturday for
     LSZ240.

  Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Saturday for
     LSZ241.

  Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for
     LSZ242>244.

  Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening
     for LSZ242>244-263-264.

  Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ245-
     246.

  Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Saturday for
     LSZ245-246-265>267.

  Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for LSZ247-248.

  Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 AM EDT Saturday for
     LSZ249.

  Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT
     Saturday for LSZ250-251.

Lake Michigan...
  Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...07