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000
FXUS63 KOAX 120428
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1128 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme fire danger will continue into early this evening. A
  Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the entire area.
  Expect at least very high fire danger again in parts of the
  area on Saturday.

- High temperatures in the 80s Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.

- There is a 50 to 80 percent chance of thunderstorms Monday
  afternoon into Tuesday area-wide, with a 15% chance of severe
  weather in portions of southeast Nebraska.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Early afternoon analysis showed large-scale mid-level troughing
over the eastern CONUS with a "primary" surface low spinning
over the Ohio River Valley. Meanwhile, a mid-level ridge was in
place over the western CONUS, leaving us in between under strong
northwest flow. Mostly sunny skies and strong mixing was
leading to extreme fire danger across the area with northwest
winds gusting 35 to around 50 mph and RH values in the upper
teens and 20s as of 2 PM. The winds should start to subside this
evening as the aforementioned low pushes farther off to the
east and a surface/mid- level ridge start to work into the area.
This will set the stage for a fairly quiet and slightly warmer
Friday, with highs back in the upper 60s to mid 70s. RH values
do look to dip into the 20s once again, but with winds largely
remaining below 15 mph, fire danger is expected to peak in the
very high category.

For Saturday, southerly winds will increase on the back side of
the departing surface ridge and ahead of an area of surface low
pressure to our west/northwest. This is expected to bring much
warmer air (highs in the 80s) and very high fire danger to the
area once again, and potentially some spotty extreme fire
danger. However, model soundings reveal winds in the mixed layer
largely between 20 and 30 mph with RH values in the mid 20s to
mid 30s. So still a day to watch from a fire weather
perspective, but maybe not quite as impactful as today.

Warm air will remain in place for Sunday and Monday as the mid-
level ridge axis passes through. NAEFS guidance suggests 850 mb
temperatures in the 97th+ percentile of climatology with mean
values ranging from 17C to 20C across the area. Mixing these
down would result in highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s,
potentially approaching record highs. Attention then turns to a
potent shortwave trough and associated surface low approaching
on Monday and bringing our next shower and storm chances.
Guidance is in slightly better agreement regarding timing and
low track, with consensus holding off on strongest forcing/storm
development until the evening and overnight hours when
instability may be a bit more meager. That said, still plenty of
members that develop storms in the afternoon/evening hours.
Also still appears to be plenty of shear and instability at
least nearby for a severe weather threat. Again, the level of
the threat may come down to exact timing, something we`ll have
to work out in the coming days.

Precip is expected to linger on the back side of the low into
Tuesday evening following its passage off to the northeast.
Strong northwest winds will also start to "cool" us down, with
highs back in the 60s and 70s for Tuesday and Wednesday, and
perhaps some 50s working back in by Thursday as another
shortwave trough and surface cold front look to slide through.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will
remain out of the northwest overnight and most of the day,
before backing to the south by around 00Z Friday evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...KG