925
FXUS63 KOAX 111048
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
548 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are forecast
  Sunday through Thursday. Highest precipitation chances (60-80%)
  during that timeframe are Sunday night into Monday. No severe
  weather is currently anticipated.

- Seasonal daytime temperatures are expected through much of
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 420 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Another night of quiet weather; the clear skies have allowed
for unobstructed views of the aurora for those lucky enough to
have caught a glimpse. Surface analysis doesn`t show a lot of
meaningful features, but a cold front is pushing through the
Chicago and St Louis metros tied to a vigorous shortwave over
the Great Lakes.

Upper level ridging over the Northern Plains is partially
responsible for the loose surface gradient and quiet overnight
winds. An upper level low spins counter-clockwise over Las
Vegas.

.TODAY...

Surface high pressure remains in place today, leading to sunny
skies and a 5-15 mph warming westerly wind. Expect most
locations to peak near 80F this afternoon. Clouds increase
overnight as the upper level low approaches from the southwest.

.SUNDAY and MONDAY...

Likely PoPs wait until Sunday afternoon as the upper wave opens
up and pushes east as a lee cyclone develops as a clipper drags
a cold front across the Northern Plains. The surface low will
track across Kansas and will leave south-central and southeast
Nebraska cooler than the northeastern corner of the state and
western Iowa. Surface instability will be maximized at maybe
2000 J/kg along the SoDak state line where sunshine will be
maximized. The lack of shear should preclude a threat for severe
weather.

Rain and thunderstorms will continue east overnight Sunday and
over the first half of Monday. QPF ranges from nothing in
northeastern Nebraska to close to an inch along the Missouri and
Kansas state lines.

.THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...

Tuesday brings temporarily dry conditions and a return to mostly
sunny skies ahead of another upper wave that brings a chance of
rain and thunderstorms for Wednesday. 00Z deterministic models
have significant differences in solutions, but all keep the wave
positively titled which will help keep shear low. GEFS
(ensemble) keeps the chance of CAPE > 1000 J/kg at less than
10%. The NBM and Euro ensemble members concur. All this leads
me to believe that the severe weather threat for Wednesday night
is low.

This will leave Wednesday and Thursday on the lower end of the
70s. Friday and Saturday deserve better chances of hitting 80.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 546 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions through the period. Light and variable winds at
TAF issuance, becoming westerly 7-9 knots through the afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...DeWald