028
FXUS63 KPAH 090630
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
130 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much more tranquil weather is forecast Thursday through early
  next week, with the next chance of showers and isolated storms
  arriving Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 130 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

The flooding and severe storm threats have ended and all watches
have been cancelled.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

This afternoon and tonight...A dangerous severe weather setup
will persist across much of the forecast area through late
tonight. Currently, scattered to numerous supercells are
developing in the open warm sector across west KY and southern
IL. Expect the warm sector supercellular convection to continue
with an associated large hail, damaging wind, and tornado risk
through late this afternoon.

Further northwest, an intense bow echo is approaching southwest
IL from the south STL metro, with a history of producing very
large hail, straight line wind damage, and attempts at
tornadogenesis. This activity will impact the Route 13 to I-64
corridors through this afternoon through early tonight.

A final and perhaps more widespread straight-line wind risk will
develop ahead of the surface cold front over southwest MO this
afternoon and race into southwest MO, southern IL, southwest IN,
and west KY through 00-06z or so. These storms will likely have
the greatest chance of producing widespread straight-line wind
damage, as the storms will take advantage of an intensifying LLJ
of 30-50 kts.

In addition to the severe risk, the concern for flash flooding
will ramp up tonight as multiple round of intense training
convection will possible. Latest CAMs shows corridors of 2-4" of
QPF through 12z Thursday, with locally higher amounts possible
over the southern KY Pennyrile. For these reasons, opted to
expand the Flood Watch to include much of southeast MO, southern
IL, and southwest IN, in addition to existing Flood Watch in
west KY.

One area that may miss out on the severe storms is the area
north of I-64. The warm front has stalled just south of this
area, and is unlikely to progress further north due to ongoing
rounds of convection. Will need to monitor trends over the next
few hours.

Thursday through Tuesday...An extended period of quiet weather
can be expected Thursday through Sunday as high pressure builds
over the region. Temperatures look to remain near to slightly
above normal, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s and overnight
low temperatures in the 50s.

Our next chance of precipitation will arrive Monday into
Tuesday next week as a surface low tracks over the region. The
path of the surface low will likely preclude organized
convection as it stands, though there will be a slight chance of
thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above
normal with high temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s and
overnight lows in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

A few showers may linger for an hour or so at KPAH, otherwise,
the precipitation is done...finally. Some MVFR or even IFR
ceilings will attempt to spread eastward across the three
northern sites from 09Z-14Z and should lift/scatter by midday.
West northwest winds will gust 20-25kt at times through the
afternoon at all sites. There is some potential for MVFR
ceilings to sag back south into the northern sites in the late
evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DRS