Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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082 FXUS63 KPAH 010440 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1140 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A trend of above normal temperatures sets in, peaking Wednesday and Thursday, with highs into the upper 80s. For most locations, that`ll be just shy of records near 90 to begin the month of May. - Daily rain chances resume Thursday. They`ll peak Friday and again late this weekend into early next week. Heavy rain will be the primary hazard from any storms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Updated Aviation discussion for the 06z TAF issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 High pressure provides clear skies and helps draw in drier dew points that bottom into the 50s overnight. As the high shifts eastward, southerly return flow quickly reverses course for dew points, returning them into the lower 60s along with our warmup. Near record highs in the upper 80s are forecast Wednesday and Thursday, and here is the record information for our climo sites both days: May1 May2 Norm-Hi Fcst-Hi Wed/Thu PAH 90/1951 90/2012 75 87/89 EVV 90/1951 91/1959 73 83/87 CGI 87/2012 89/2012 74 86/87 POF 93/1901 91/1952 74 86/87 MDH 91/1901 91/1901 73 83/87 There may be a glancing blow/low pops for warm advection showers for portions of the area late tonight-early tmrw, and again tmrw pm/evening with diurnal destabilization. Otherwise, it will largely be dry until broader/synoptic scale pops move in from the west beginning Thursday. These pops will peak Friday before diminishing early this weekend, mirroring their parent system`s lift and spreading and ultimately diminishing in similarly tracking west-to-east fashion. Heavy rain will be the primary hazard as WPC paints a marginal risk for excessive rainfall accompanying that system`s pass. A relative early weekend pops pause is quickly followed by continued daily chances Saturday night thru Monday. The parent synoptic features of these chances remain north and west of our area for their duration, so at this writing, it looks more like your routine/daily storm chances with locally heavy rain hazard vs anything widespread severe variety. There is no discernible air mass change so the warm temp regime continues with mostly 80s for highs this weekend thru early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 For the 06z TAFs, forecast confidence is high that the region will see VFR conditions with increasing upper-level cirrus cloud coverage from 06-18z, with SCT diurnal CU developing after 15z. Winds will be light from the S to SSE at 4-6 kts or less, becoming SW at AOA 7 kts after 15z. Forecast confidence decreases for the 01/18z to 02/06z period as as a frontal boundary sags southward into the region from the N and NW. This may kick off isolated -SHRA or -TSRA during the heat of the afternoon into the early evening hours, but confidence was too low to include at this time. Winds will become light and variable after 02/00z. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...DWS DISCUSSION...DH AVIATION...DWS