501
FXUS65 KPSR 131728
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1028 AM MST Mon May 13 2024

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will remain above normal for the week ahead with the
lower desert communities nearing or exceeding 100 degrees most
days. Dry conditions will persist with the usual late afternoon
breeziness. An exception will be the higher elevations of northern
and eastern Arizona which will see a few late day showers each
day. These showers could be supportive of some erratic, gusty
winds descending into the lower deserts each evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Midday water vapor imagery showing upper level low circulation now
into SE CO and continuing to move away from the region. Visible
imagery still indicating some residual moisture over the high
country back into central/eastern AZ with some cumulus forming.
Could be a couple showers form in these areas later today, but
isolated in coverage and no impact into the lower elevations.

Otherwise, ensembles in overall good agreement with heights
building slightly over the region into Monday, bringing with it
another day of temperatures a few degrees warmer, with highs
around 100 degrees. HeatRisk will maximize in the moderate
category at best for scattered locations and mainly across SE CA.
The weak ridging will be short lived as another upper low moves in
from off the SW CA coast. This will produce height falls again
across the SW US. Not enough moisture for showers, except for
some higher elevations once again to the north of the forecast
area. A northerly mid level flow around this low would suggest the
potential for some occasional outflow winds dropping south across
the deserts, just something to monitor for potential erratic
winds and elevated fire weather. The lower heights through the
week would suggest keeping temperatures in check somewhat, right
around that century mark. Otherwise, typical May weather this week
with dry conditions and afternoon breeziness.

Cluster analysis out to days 6 and 7 for next weekend, favoring
some type of building heights, could bring the warmest
temperatures of the season so far. However the overall consensus
is that positive height anomalies remain low so not seeing any
higher levels of HeatRisk at the moment.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1728Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No aviation weather concerns are expected through the TAF period.
Winds will favor light, diurnal tendencies with typical afternoon
breeziness gusting into the teens at times. Otherwise, mostly
clear skies will prevail through the remainder of the morning
before widely scattered high-based CU develops going into this
afternoon mainly over the high terrain to the north and east of
the Phoenix area.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major aviation weather concerns are expected through the next
24 hours. Winds at KIPL will favor a westerly component through
much of the period outside of light and variable winds expected
this afternoon. Gusts at KIPL are expected to increase this
evening with some gusts up to around 20 kts possible before
tapering off later tonight. At KBLH, winds will favor a S to SW
component with gusts to around 20 kts expected this afternoon.
Otherwise, mostly clear skies are favored for much of the TAF
period outside of passing SCT high clouds this afternoon/evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
There will be local elevated fire danger this week as a result of
some periodic gusty winds (mainly in the afternoon and early
evening hours), dry fine fuels, and low humidity levels. MinRH
levels will be around 10% across the lower deserts and in the
teens for the higher terrain areas. Overnight recoveries will poor
to fair and in the 20-50% range. Afternoon and early evening wind
gusts will be in the 20-25 mph range, with some periodic higher
gusts possible in the higher terrain in the eastern districts due
to some high based showers over the mountains.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Berislavich
AVIATION...Smith
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich