741
FXUS65 KPSR 090535
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1035 PM MST Wed May 8 2024

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Near seasonal temperatures continue through the end of the work
week. There will be a gradual warming trend through the weekend and
into next week, with portions of the lower deserts nearing tripple
digits as early as Sunday. Dry conditions with typical springtime
afternoon breeziness will persist.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Large scale troughing over western CONUS will continue over the next
couple of days, with the low pressure system retrograding back into
Wyoming. A shortwave trough is currently moving through Arizona,
which is leading to some slightly elevated wind gusts this
afternoon. Wind gusts of 20-25 mph are expected through the early
evening. Near normal afternoon high temperatures are expected
through Friday thanks to the low pressure system retrograding
back to the west.

The large scale upper-level trough will start to weaken this weekend
and into next week. The trough will weaken enough to allow a ridge
to build into the Pacific Northwest, however, the desert Southwest
will remain under the influence of the weakened trough. This will
allow for a gradual warming trend into next week. Portions of the
lower desert could hit triple digits as early as Sunday, however,
much of the lower deserts are currently forecasted to only max out
in the mid-to-upper 90s this weekend through the beginning of next
week. The NBM gives the Phoenix Metro a 40% chance of reaching 100
degrees on Monday and a 50% chance on Tuesday. Typical springtime
afternoon breeziness with gusts up around 20 mph is also expected to
continue into next week. A slight increase in moisture is expected
on Sunday and for the beginning of next week, however, dry
conditions are expected for our area and any rain showers or
thunderstorms should stay in the high country.

Temperature forecast confidence deteriorates by the middle to end of
next week as ensemble guidance differs on the overall pattern. Some
models show a more potent high pressure building in over the area
whereas other models show a weak low pressure system moving over
the region. For next Thursday in Phoenix, the 25th percentile for
the NBM shows a high temperature of 97 degrees, whereas the 75th
percentile shows a high temperature of 106 degrees. The seasonable
dry conditions are expected to continue through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0535Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
West winds will subside over the next couple hours and shift east
by 10-11Z. Winds will remain light through the night, with the
exception of 10-12 kts at KIWA. Winds shift back west by 16-17Z
Thursday. Westerly winds Thursday will increase up to 10-15 kts,
with gusts up to 20-25 kts, in the afternoon. SKC will prevail.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Light W-NW winds at KBLH will prevail through tonight, while light
W winds at KIPL will eventually become variable early Thursday
morning. Northerly winds are expected at both terminals during the
day Thursday. Speeds will remain light at KIPL, while northerly
gusts at KBLH will reach up to around 20 kts Thursday. SKC will
prevail.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Typical springtime breeziness with afternoon and early evening wind
gusts of 20-25 mph will persist through the weekend. These breezy
conditions combined with dry fine fuels, and low RHs will likely
create some elevated fire weather conditions. MinRHs will be in the
5-10% across the lower deserts and in the 10-15% range across the
higher terrain. Overnight recovery will be poor and in the 20-40%
range. Seasonal temperature continue through Friday before a gradual
warming trend sets in this weekend and continues into next week. Dry
conditions will also persist into next week.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Berislavich
AVIATION...Benedict
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich/Kuhlman