286
FXUS65 KPUB 282035
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
235 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - One last round of showers then drying out and warming up for
   Monday

 - Mostly dry conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesday, with
   critical fire weather conditions returning to the region.

 - Active weather returns for Thursday and Friday, with
   precipitation chances increasing for most.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A trailing disturbance in northwest flow has triggered another round
of rain and snow showers across the mountains this afternoon. With
cold air aloft and instability of around a couple hundred J/kg of
CAPE, some embedded thunderstorms will be possible which will be
capable of brief localized snow bursts or small graupel. Snow levels
will waver around 9000 feet with localized accumulations of an inch
or two of snow possible across the higher peaks. Showers and
thunderstorms will drift off into the valleys and adjacent plains
late this afternoon and evening before dissipating later tonight.
Temperatures tonight will be on the cool side with a mix of 30s and
lower 40s across the plains, 20s for the mountain valleys and teens
for the higher peaks.

Monday will be dry and warmer under westerly flow aloft.  Winds will
remain relatively light and southerly as a lee side surface low
develops across southern portions of the area.  Temperatures will
rebound into the 70s across the plains with 50s and 60s for the
valleys and mountain communities and a mix of 30s and 40s for the
higher peaks. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Monday Night - Wednesday: Relatively quiet weather is expected
for the Tuesday and Wednesday timeframe over south central and
southeastern Colorado, though there will be a concern for the
return of critical fire weather conditions. Synoptically, no
significant systems are expected, as westerly flow with an
embedded short wave prevails Tuesday, and flow becomes more
southwesterly ahead of an approaching trough Wednesday. Despite
the shortwave Tuesday, and the approaching larger wave
Wednesday, no major forcing is expected, and dry conditions are
anticipated. The exception to this will be along the mountains,
and particularly the central mountains, where modest upticks in
orographic forcing will help initiate isolated light showers.
Along with that though, showers will start to increase late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the trough starts
arriving over the region. As mentioned though, fire weather will
again start to become a concern. Increasing winds with the
waves, and dry and warm air, and therefore low humidity values,
will allow for critical fire weather conditions to materialize
across the San Luis Valley both days, and expand across the
plains Wednesday. As for temperatures, and briefly alluded to,
temperatures will be warm. Mostly clear skies and downsloping
winds will help to warm the region to above seasonal
temperatures for late April to early May.

Thursday - Saturday: For the later half of the week, active weather
returns, though mostly for Thursday and Friday at this time. During
the later part of the week, the aforementioned trough will push over
the south central and southeast Colorado area. This trough will
bring a surge in forcing and a cold front to the region. These
features will increase the precipitation chances for much of the
area, but especially for the mountains and parts of the eastern
plains. Then beyond this system, flow quickly becomes westerly again
through the end of Friday and into Saturday. Given the lack of major
forcing with that flow pattern, dry conditions are anticipated to
prevail for the start of the weekend, though isolated light showers
along the mountains will still be possible. Looking at temperatures,
a cool down is expected behind the cold front with the trough, with
temperatures falling to below seasonal values Thursday. Then through
Friday and Saturday, a steady warm up is anticipated as the system
quickly exits the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

VFR cigs with VCSH/-SHRA will be possible at the TAF sites through
this evening with the greatest odds for -SHRA at KALS through 02z.
Otherwise, expect diurnally driven winds with speeds under 15 kts
and clearing skies overnight. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for COZ224.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...KT