Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
836 FXUS65 KPUB 291637 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1037 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming trend continues with parts of the plains warming into the upper 70s. - Critical fire weather conditions for portions of the area Tuesday and Wednesday. - Quick-hitting system brings a brief period of cooler air and some precipitation Wednesday evening through Thursday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1028 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024 The latest mid-level analysis indicates that southeastern Colorado is in a dry zonal flow as a trough pushes well northeast of the area across the western Great Lakes and the next trough pushes into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a broad area of high pressure extends across much of the Desert Southwest across Colorado and into the central Plains. Upstream, to the northwest, a surface low is located along the Alberta-Saskatchewan border and a frontal boundary extends southwest of the feature across Montana, Idaho, and Nevada. GOES visible satellite imagery this morning indicates that aside from passing thin cirrus extending across the central mountains to Front Range and into the Plains, skies are clear across the area. This afternoon, the area will remain in a dry, westerly mid- level flow for much of the day and then some moisture in the 500-600mb layer will begin to slide into the central Mountains and Front Range by this evening. Meanwhile, high pressure will continue to dominate the region as the frontal boundary slides southeastward as a cold front into Wyoming and northern Utah. With all of this in mind, a dry and mostly sunny day is in store for southeastern Colorado. The biggest update to the forecast was to remove wording of any lingering showers/snow showers early today. Temperatures will recover nicely today with abundant sunshine allowing for highs to range from the mid to upper 70s in the SE Plains to the upper 60s to lower 70s along the I-25 corridor to the mid 60s in the San Luis Valley. Higher terrain will see highs ranging from the 40s to 50s for most locations. /04-Woodrum/ && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 338 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Today... The major shortwave upstream is continuing to advance further eastward, with high pressure conditions building back in. There is a shortwave moving on over the northwestern CONUS that is advecting up some moisture ahead of it from the southwest and this will be moving over the northern areas of the region, providing a few snow showers for the central mountains by later in the day. Otherwise, conditions will be dry for most of the CWA, with only some mid to high level clouds due to this mid-level moisture advection. West to southwesterly snow will continue over the higher terrain. For the plains, winds will switch to more of a southeasterly flow by later in the day over the plains, which will allow for some warmer air advection and there will be some locations getting close to the 80 degree mark for the eastern plains and within the lower Arkansas River Valley. It will also be relatively warmer across the higher terrain as well, with temperatures maxing out in the 60s for the upper Arkansas River Valley and San Luis Valley, and generally in the upper 30s to low 50s for the higher elevations. Tonight... With some cloud cover around and downsloping winds, temperatures will be more modified and relatively warmer tonight, with lows dropping into the low to mid 40s across a majority of the plains, and generally in the 20s and 30s for high country. There could still be a few isolated snow showers across the northern portion of the Sawatch and Mosquito Range, otherwise, just some passing clouds. Winds will also be increasing out of the southwest, especially across the highest terrain. -Stewey && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 338 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Tuesday and Wednesday...Models still indicate that a quick-moving upper disturbance will cross the Rockies Tue in the general westerly flow aloft, with much of the effects remaining north of the forecast area. There will be some isolated shower activity across the central mts, but otherwise a dry and very warm day expected for the forecast area. Decided to go ahead and upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for the San Luis Valley for Tue, as high temps across the area are forecast to climb above seasonal norms. On Wed the flow aloft becomes more southwesterly and starts to increase as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a stronger upper system. This will translate to stronger surface winds, and combined with low humidity levels and above normal temps once again, went ahead and issued a Fire Weather Watch for those portions of the area that have receptive fuels. Precipitation chances will be on the increase by the afternoon across the central mts and the Rampart Range. Plan on high temps both days in the mid 60s to around 70F for the high valleys, and mid 70s to mid 80s for the plains. Wednesday night and Thursday...A stronger upper low pressure system crosses the Rockies on Wed, buy latest model runs are showing a slightly slower progression of this system and the associated cold front that pushes south into southeastern CO. Previous model runs were pointing to cold front passage in the afternoon, but now it looks like the front will cross the Palmer Divide in the evening. Therefore, precip chances spreading off the higher terrain and into the eastern plains now occurs Wed night through Thu, with a 10 to 15 degree drop off in temps from Wed to Thu. The central mts will likely receive about 2 to 4 inches of new snow through Thu, while the remaining peaks may see up to 2 inches of new snow. The remainder of the lower elevations will see isolated showers and thunderstorms Wed evening, then more scattered activity across the plains Thu afternoon. Look for highs in the 50s to around 60F for the high valleys, and mid 50s to mid 60s for the plains, which are well below normal. Friday through Sunday...The upper low system exits the region by early Friday morning, and Colorado will be between systems and under weak westerly flow. Plan on near normal temps Fri and Sat with isolated afternoon convection possible, then warming back up to above normal for Sunday. Moore && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1028 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024 VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals as high pressure dominates the region with mostly sunny skies. West-southwesterly winds at Alamosa will increase to 10-15kts with gusts to 20-25 kts this afternoon. Winds will be more southerly to southeasterly at KCOS and KPUB increasing to around 10kts this afternoon. Winds will decrease to around 5 kts across the terminals overnight into the morning hours on Tuesday. /04-Woodrum/ && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 7 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ224. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for COZ224-232-233-237. && $$ UPDATE...WOODRUM SHORT TERM...STEWARD LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...WOODRUM