294
FXUS65 KPUB 020939
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
339 AM MDT Thu May 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions can be expected across the
  San Luis Valley again this afternoon into the early evening.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible across the eastern
  mtns and plains this afternoon and evening.

- Critical fire weather conditions continue for the San Luis
  Valley Friday.

- Chance for strong to severe thunderstorms across the far
  eastern plains Friday afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 330 AM MDT Thu May 2 2024

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has moderate west
to southwest flow aloft across the region, with an embedded shortwave
lifting out across the Northern Rockies and into the Northern High
Plains early this morning. Water vapor imagery also indicates more
embedded energy translating across the Pacific Northwest Coast at
this time. Regional radars are indicating a few showers across the
Pikes Peak region early this morning, as the passing wave`s associated
cold front continues to push south across the southeast Plains this
morning.

For today and tonight, moderate westerly flow continues across region
through the day today, which becomes more southwest into tonight,
as the Pacific Northwest embedded wave continues to translate into the
Northern Rockies. This morning`s cold front continues into New Mexico
with northerly low level winds becoming east to southeast through the
late morning and afternoon. There still remains the potential for some
stratus across the Palmer Dvd and the lower eastern slopes of the
southeast mountains early this morning, with mostly sunny skies expected
later this morning and into the early afternoon as drier air mixes into
the region.

As for precipitation chances, models continue to back off on coverage
of showers and storms, though with developing mid level waa, should
see isolated showers and a few possible storms developing across the
eastern mtns this afternoon, with a few showers and storms continuing
to spread east across the I-25 Corridor and out across the far southeast
plains through the evening.

Further west, breezy westerly flow aloft and afternoon mixing develops
critical fire weather conditions across the San Luis Valley once again,
with current the Red Flag Warning in place this afternoon into the early
evening still remains on track.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM MDT Thu May 2 2024

Friday...As the upper low pressure system continues to move out of
the area, a piece of energy rotating around it will cross the Rocky
Mt region on Fri, producing another day of warm temps, brisk
southerly winds across the plains, and gusty west-southwest winds
across the high valleys. Therefore, another day of critical fire
weather conditions for the San Luis Valley, and went ahead and
upgraded the watch there to a Red Flag Warning. As this shortwave
pushes east across the region, it will drop another cold front south
into eastern CO, and it is forecast to cross the Palmer Divide right
around 6 PM. This is setting up to be another scenario of southerly
winds drawing abundant moisture up into the southeastern corner of
the state ahead of this front, and model CAPE is sitting at around
1500-2000 j/kg. As the front nears, wind shear increases, with 0-6
km bulk shear increasing to 40-55 kts. So, the ingredients are there
for potential strong to severe storms, and SPC has already put the
far southeastern plains in a Marginal area for severe weather. As
further model runs come in today, this will bear watching.
Convection will likely linger across the plains until around
midnight. Look for high temps in the 60s to around 70F for the high
valleys, and mid 60s to mid 70s for the plains.

Saturday...The area will be under weaker flow aloft on Sat as
another Pacific low system starts to gather strength. Remnant
moisture from the frontal passage the previous day will likely fuel
afternoon and early evening convection, scattered over the higher
terrain and isolated across the plains. Plan on slightly cooler
temps with highs for most locations in the 60s.

Sunday and Monday...Ensembles indicate that the most likely track of
the next incoming system will be pushing into the Great Basin on
Sunday, then ejecting to the northeast across northern UT, WY and MT
Sunday night through Monday. this system looks like it will be
wrapped up tightly with a tight pressure gradient, producing strong
southerly winds across the forecast area on Sunday, then strong west
winds on Monday. Sunday will be warmer than Monday, but borderline
humidity levels means a day without any fire weather concerns for
the most part. However, high fire danger returns for Monday for a
broader area. As for precipitation, the expected path of the system
means precip chances for the higher terrain, but the plains should
stay dry. High temps Sunday will warm into the 60s to around 70F for
the high valleys, and 70s to lower 80s for the plains. On Monday,
expect highs in the 50s to around 60F for the high valleys, and mid
60s to near 80F for the plains.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Long range models show the upper low parking
over eastern MT and ND through midweek, producing brisk westerly
winds, warm temps and essentially dry conditions for the area. There
will be a lingering isolated shot for some shower activity across
the central mts, but for the most part expect warm and dry. Both
days will likely see fire weather highlights for those locations
that have receptive fuels. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM MDT Thu May 2 2024

Possible low VFR to MVFR cigs at COS and PUB through 14Z, will lift and
diminish through the rest of the morning, as drier air mixes across the
region. East to southeast upslope flow of 10-20kt at the terminals through
the afternoon. There is the potential for isolated -shra/-tsra through
the late afternoon and evening hours, however, chance is too low to
include anything more than vcsh at this time.

VFR conditions remain expected at ALS over the next 24 hours, with gusty
southwest winds 15-25kts at the terminal for the afternoon into the early
evening hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
COZ224.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ224.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MW