068
FXUS65 KRIW 151106
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
506 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain continues across central Wyoming this morning, with
  more showers developing this afternoon for higher elevations.

- Decreasing shower chances through the rest of the week.

- Warmer and drier conditions return for the rest of the week,
  with elevated fire concerns Friday through Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024

The latest shortwave trough continues to slowly drift east
across central WY this morning, and continues to produce light
rain mainly for Natrona County. This rain will continue through
the rest of the morning as it draws farther east. Most of the
rest of the state remains dry today, as the next weak shortwave
remains to the southwest. There is enough remnant moisture in
the region that will spark a few showers along the higher
elevations of the Winds/Absarokas/Bighorns, which will attempt
to drift southeast during the day. Any showers that do detach
from the higher elevations will produce only light rain, but may
be accompanied by locally gusty winds.

The remainder of the week will be highlighted by drier weather,
with temperatures recovering back into the 70s for most
location. The next trough starts to sweep along the U.S./Canada
border Friday. This will bring a tighter gradient across the
state Friday through the weekend, bringing Wyoming gusty winds.
The combination of drier and windier conditions will lead to a
more elevated threat for fire weather concerns, albeit held back
some by mostly green fuels across the state.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 502 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024

Rain is expected through 13Z/14Z at KCPR, but MVFR ceilings are
expected to linger through 19Z. VCSH are then expected as
instability increases. Rain showers will develop off the
southern end of the Absaroka and Wind River Mountains at the
same time, as well as off the Bighorns. Most these showers are
not expected to directly impact any terminals, but the chance is
high enough to include in terminals close to them mainly KCOD,
KLND and KCPR. Any lightning Wednesday afternoon will be
isolated. The rain showers will diminish across the area between
01Z and 05Z.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Straub
AVIATION...Hattings