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000
FXUS61 KRLX 251923
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
323 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure provides dry weather today, with frost
possible tonight. Warming trend Friday through the weekend.
Isolated showers Friday night into Saturday as a warm front crosses.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...

A beautiful afternoon across the area courtesy of surface high
pressure north of the region. After a morning filled with clouds
(for some), mostly sunny skies have returned to the region amid
chilly temperatures for this time of year. Highs will top out ~
5-10 degrees below normal, with 60s across the lowlands, and
mid 50s to low 60s in the mountains.

Another chilly night is ahead for the region amid mostly clear
skies and relatively calm SFC-H850 flow. Given such, did
significantly undercut guidance for overnight temperatures
across much of the region, especially given afternoon mixing
likely resulting in lower dew points than progged by guidance.
Low temperatures will be in the 30s for much of the lowlands,
with the highest probability for low/mid 30s and resultant frost
being across the northern portion of the CWA, with a Frost
Advisory in effect for much of SE OH from midnight to 9 AM
Friday. The typical cold spots there may dip below freezing late
tonight. Further southeast, frost remains possible,
particularly across the normal valley cold spots. Have issued
an SPS for these locations. Upslope ESE flow results in stratus
development along the eastern slopes of the mountains tonight.

After a frosty start for some, return flow on Friday results in
a significant warmup across most of the forecast area amid
increasing clouds later in the day. High temperatures top out in
the 70s across the lowlands. The mountains remain cooler (50s)
courtesy of some lingering stratus. There is the potential for a
few isolated showers in the Mid-Ohio Valley late in the day, but
any showers that do develop may struggle to make it to the
ground given dry BL conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1141 AM Thursday...

A strong ridge of high pressure overhead will bring high
temperatures into the lower 80s across the lowlands and the 70s in
the mountains Saturday. Dew point temperatures will be in the 50s,
so it will feel like a comfortable warmth. Weak upper-level
vorticity flowing around the ridge may spark a few afternoon and
early evening thunderstorms, but severe weather is not expected.
Temperatures will fall into the upper 50s and lower 60s for
overnight lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1141 AM Thursday...

The warming trend will continue into Sunday with most locations
reaching the 80s by the afternoon, even in the mountains. Highs
will reach the middle to upper 80s across the lowlands. Dry
weather is anticipated with not much activity aloft to trigger
thunderstorms. Near-record temperatures will be possible on
Monday, especially in Parkersburg and Elkins where the current
records are 86 (1991) and 87(1996), respectively.

A cold front will begin to approach from the west late Monday and
into Tuesday. Rain chances will begin Monday evening across
portions of southeast Ohio, spreading eastward across the
remainder of the area into Tuesday. Because this cold front
will pass Tuesday morning, it will be in the absence of peak
daytime heating. Therefore, there doesn`t appear to be much of a
severe weather threat. However, stay tuned in case things
change.

Behind the cold front, temperatures will still remain quite mild for
mid-to-late week with highs projected to be in the upper 70s and
lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 PM Thursday...

Lingering stratocu has mainly exited the area, resulting in
clear skies across much of the region amid a bit of cirrus from
time to time. Widespread VFR continues into tonight amid dry
weather. Most of the area remains mainly clear overnight.
Upslope flow may result in some MVFR CIGs across the eastern
slopes of the mountains, but this is not progged to impact any
terminals. Dry weather continues Friday morning into the
afternoon amid VFR conditions and a bit of developing diurnal Cu.

Light and variable flow is expected today, with calm to light
ENE/ESE flow expected overnight. ESE flow is progged on Friday,
strengthening as the day goes on. Gusts of 15-20 kts are possible
late tonight through the end of the TAF period in/near the
higher terrain.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR CIG restrictions could occur
late tonight at BKW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
EDT 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
Patchy IFR possible along the mountains Friday night into
Saturday with low stratus.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>086.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GW/JMC
NEAR TERM...GW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...GW