Text Products for FWS Issued by RNK

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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FNUS71 KRNK 241053
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for Gochenour Fire...VA DCR Natural Heritage
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
653 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 EDT on April 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
The first of two weak boundaries was in the process of crossing
the forecast area from NW to SE this morning. Radar imagery
showed light precipitation echoes, but some of this was not
reaching the ground due to a dry sublayer. A secondary boundary
moves through shortly behind this one, and should deliver some
light showers to the western mountains as well. Chances for
wetting rain outside of the western mountains are low, and this
drier pattern continues through Saturday at least. Main mid/upper
level support will remain to our north, and showers should fall
apart as they move south, largely coming to an end by mid morning.

Skies begin to clear out late morning and we should see
temperatures reach the mid 60s at the burn site. Westerly winds
will generally be around 10-15 mph with gusts into the 20s. Winds
will become calm this evening.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the morning.
CWR (0.01 in).......20 percent decreasing to 10 percent early in
                    the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 9 to 13 mph with gusts to around 19
                    mph.
Mixing height.......7600 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 15 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (14500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (108300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................22 early in the morning increasing to 88 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........76  74  50  45  39  34  25  15  20  17  16
Weather cov.....SCH
Weather type....RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............20  10  10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............52  53  54  57  58  61  61  62  63  64  64
RH..............63  68  66  56  51  43  40  36  34  33  32
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW
20 FT wind spd..13  12  12  12  12  12  12  12  11  11  11
20 FT wind gust.19  18  18  19  18  18  18  18  17  17  17
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 1.6 2.8 3.5 5.0 5.9 6.5 7.1 7.4 7.6 7.2
Mixng wind dir..W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Mixng wind spd..18  20  21  21  21  20  18  17  16  16  15
LVORI...........2   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............22  34  63  73  86  88  86  83  81  78  72
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRate mph-ft/1K.17  32  57  74  104 118 121 123 125 121 108

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 45.
Max humidity........73 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 11 mph shifting to the
                    northeast 5 to 8 mph early in the morning.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 5 to 14 mph shifting to the north
                    around 3 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (80100 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (1000 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................63 early in the evening decreasing to 2 late in
                    the night.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........15     11     8      14     0      5
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............63     56     51     48     46     45
RH..............34     43     53     63     71     73
20 ft wind......NW 11  NW 10  NW 10  N 10   N 10   N 8
20 ft wind gust.16     14     14     14     14     12
Mix hgt (ft)....6800   1100   700    500    400    400
Mixing wind......NW 14  NW 10  NW 9   NW 7   N 3    N 3
LVORI...........1      2      2      3      3      3
ADI.............63     8      7      5      3      2
Haines index....4      4      4      4      3      3
VRate mph-ft/1K.92     12     7      3      1      1

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 9 mph in the morning
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......4800 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northeast 3 to 8 mph shifting to the east
                    around 1 mph late in the morning, then shifting
                    to the south 2 to 3 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (14600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................4 to 21.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........23     38     37     34     30     35
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............42     44     49     53     57     59
RH..............79     73     61     53     44     41
20 ft wind......NE 9   NE 6   NE 5   E 3    SE 4   SE 4
20 ft wind gust.13     10     7      5      6      6
Mix hgt (ft)....600    1200   2700   4000   4800   4500
Mixing wind......NE 6   NE 8   E 3    SE 1   SW 3   S 2
LVORI...........5      3      2      2      2      2
ADI.............4      13     12     7      21     13
Haines index....3      3      3      3      4      4
VRate mph-ft/1K.3      10     9      6      17     10

$$

Forecaster...Hanes
Requested by...Ryan Andrew Lepsch
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2412147.0/RNK
.DELDT 04/24/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Ryan.Lepsch@gmail.com
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
