Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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457
FXUS66 KSGX 161617
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
917 AM PDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A persistent marine layer typical of May will continue into next
week with night and morning coastal low clouds extending well
inland across most of the valleys with limited afternoon clearing
for coastal areas. Through Saturday, not much change is expected
with high temperatures for the coast and valleys with slight
cooling for the deserts. Cooling for most areas for Sunday and
Monday, then a little warmer for the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Update...
The 12z Miramar sounding showed a minor inversion based near 1900
feet and an 11C degree inversion based near 3100 feet. Patchy
drizzle and isolated, light rain showers earlier this morning
resulted in minor accumulations from the coast through the
mountains, but most of that activity has waned in the past few
hours. Low clouds extend through the coastal slopes as of 9 AM,
and skies will be slow to clear across the valleys, with little to
no clearing expected at the coast. Highs will warm 2-8 degrees
above those observed on Wednesday, reaching the upper-60s across
the coast, western valleys and mountains, the mid to upper-70s in
the Inland Empire, the low-90s in the High Deserts and near 100 in
the lower deserts.

Previous Discussion (Issued 336 AM PDT Thu May 16 2024)...
.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
The marine layer is around 4000 feet deep early this morning with
low clouds extending inland across all of the coast and valleys
and onto the lower coastal slopes of the mountains. There has been
some patchy drizzle with some light measurable amounts for inland
Orange County and in the western valleys in San Diego County. The
deep marine layer will continue into the weekend. Night and
morning low clouds will extend will inland across most of the
valleys and sometimes onto the lower coastal mountain slopes. Afternoon
coastal clearing will remain limited. Through Saturday, high
temperatures for the deserts will cool a degree or so per day with
not much change for the coast and valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Wednesday)...
A weak upper level low pressure system well off the northern Baja
coast on Saturday will move eastward and move inland through
southern California and northern Baja some time around Monday.
High temperatures on Sunday will be another degree or two cooler
than Saturday with Monday another 5 or so degrees cooler for
inland areas. With that cooling, high temperatures on Monday will
be around 5 degrees below average for lower elevations to
generally 8 to 12 degrees below average for the mountains and
inland valleys. High temperatures for the coast and valleys will
be mostly in the 60s with some lower 70s in the Inland Empire.
Highs in the lower deserts on Monday will be mostly in the mid 80s
to mid 90s. High temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday will be
slightly warmer with Wednesday generally a few to around 5 degrees
warmer than Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
161600Z...Coast/Valleys...BKN-OVC015-030 tops 4000 feet through 19Z
with slow clearing toward the coast 19-23Z, but with little or no
clearing at KSAN...KCRQ and KSNA. Low clouds spreading back inland
00-03Z tonight and filling the coastal basin through Friday morning
with bases 1500-3000 feet and tops to 4000 ft.

Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear today and tonight. West winds
gusting 30-40 kt through mountain passes into adjacent deserts
after 23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Monday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...EA
AVIATION/MARINE...Moede