641
FXUS64 KSHV 131620
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1120 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1120 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Much quieter conditions this morning compared to 24 hrs ago, as we
await the arrival of the upper trough over Ern KS, with its
attendant trough axis extending farther S into the Srn Plains.
The mid-morning sfc analysis reveals that a warm front extends
from the TX Hill Country near SAT ENE into SE TX/S LA along a UTS,
to just S of a JAS/DRI, to OPL/BTR and Lake Pontchartrain line,
with good agreement amongst the short term progs suggesting that
this bndry will not move much farther N today given the lack of a
deep Srly low level component to the wind ahead of the approaching
trough. In fact, the mid-morning satellite and mosaic radar
imagery indicate that strong/severe convection has developed near
and WSW of SAT along the front, associated with a perturbation
aloft along the base of the trough. The various CAMs and other
deterministic progs are in good agreement with this convection
growing upscale into a MCS by this afternoon along the front,
traversing E into SE TX and eventually S LA by early evening.
Thus, the greatest severe threat appears to have shifted a bit
farther S across SE TX/S LA during peak heating/greatest
instability, although isolated strong/severe storms will can`t be
ruled out across the Srn tier counties of Deep E TX/Cntrl LA. The
threat for heavy rainfall also appears to be shifting just S of
the region as well, but will maintain the Flood Watch as is as
much of the Watch area remains saturated after 3-5+ inches of rain
that has fallen since Sunday morning.

Aside from possible isolated convection that may develop mainly in
the afternoon over all but the Srn zones, mostly dry conditions
are expected given the lack of a sfc/upper level focus, with the
warm front remaining to our S, and a weak cold front over Cntrl
OK expected to remain just NW of the region by late afternoon.
Thus, have toned down pops to slight chance/low chance over much
of the area, with mid and high chance pops across Deep E TX/Srn
sections of NCntrl LA where impacts from the pending MCS may see
impacts late in the day.

Low cigs look to also persist through the day as well, and thus
have lowered max temps some 3-5 degrees areawide. Pop adjustments
will likely be needed this evening as well, but will handle that
in the afternoon forecast package.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

For the 13/12z TAFS....Low cigs have prevailed across the region,
resulting in IFR/LIFR flight categories. Fog has develop over the
area this morning, but should diminish by mid morning. Low cigs
will keep reduced flight categories over the region through a good
portion of today, Otherwise, expect additional convection to
develop during the afternoon hours over all the TAF sites.
Eventually a frontal boundary will push through, bringing clearing
skies and WNW winds. However, some patchy fog will be possible by
the end of the TAF period. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80  65  85  62 /  30  30   0   0
MLU  80  65  85  62 /  30  40  10   0
DEQ  76  59  81  56 /  30  30  10   0
TXK  78  64  83  59 /  20  30   0   0
ELD  77  62  82  59 /  20  30  10   0
TYR  79  64  84  61 /  30  20   0   0
GGG  79  64  84  61 /  30  20   0   0
LFK  82  64  86  61 /  50  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for LAZ017-018-020-022.

OK...None.
TX...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for TXZ149-152-153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...20