Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 232344
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
644 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Low clouds have taken most of the day to erode across East Texas.
A reinforcing surge of dry air was advected into the area by
northerly winds from a broad surface ridge making it feel much
cooler than what the actual air temperatures are, which generally
range in the lower 60 to lower 70s this afternoon. High cirrus
clouds will be increasing from the west this evening and tonight
as the axis of both the aforementioned surface ridge and an upper
level ridge move east of the region.

A strong longwave trough currently over the Pacific Northwest will
dig into the Great Basin and Intermountain West by Sunday morning.
This will result in rapid lee surface cyclogenesis over the High
Plains. As the pressure gradient tightens, southeasterly surface
winds will increase through much of the day Sunday. Current
thinking is any instances of advisory-level wind speeds will be
isolated and brief, so no wind headlines with issued with this
forecast package. While the highest wind speeds may decrease
slightly Sunday night/early Monday morning, widespread breezy
conditions with gusty winds are expected areawide.

The strong southerly flow will advect warm and moist air northward
Sunday. A few isolated showers will be possible within the warm
air advection regime as early as Sunday afternoon over Southeast
Oklahoma and extreme Northeast Texas, but rain chances will
gradually increase during the evening and especially overnight.
Strong convection is expected to develop Sunday afternoon over
Oklahoma and Texas ahead of a strong Pacific cold front before
merging into a linear complex and moving eastward towards the
forecast area. There is still considerable disagreement among the
models regarding the arrival time of the storms, but the trend has
been for the onset to be just a little bit slower. The most likely
timeframe for the for the arrival of the storms in our forecast
area will be between midnight and sunrise Monday morning northwest
of a line from Tyler TX, to Texarkana, to Nashville AR. Strong
deep layer shear will support at least the threat for a couple of
severe storms, mainly with a damaging wind threat, but a lack of
instability will keep this risk somewhat limited through daybreak
Monday.

CN

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Strong convection will be ongoing across the forecast area at the
start of the long-term period Monday morning. The storms are
expected to be somewhat slow to progress eastward. With very
strong large scale forcing, this may set the stage for locally
heavy rainfall in a few locations. Windy conditions are expected
within the warm sector ahead of the front on Monday across all of
Louisiana, much of Southern Arkansas, and portions of East Texas.
Sustained wind speeds may be near or over 20 mph, and there may be
some gradient wind gusts near 40 mph. If the progress of the
squall line continues to be towards the slower end of the guidance
envelope, this should allow for some surface-based instability to
build. The NAM is the slowest and most aggressive suggesting CAPE
values of 500-1000 J/kg may be present during the afternoon. Deep
layer shear and low-level shear profiles will be quite strong. The
biggest question regarding the severe weather risk will be whether
we can manage enough instability for discrete supercells to
develop ahead of the main line of convection. If this occurs, the
risk for severe weather will increase. All severe weather hazards,
including tornadoes, will be possible. The tornadic threat will be
much greater with discrete supercells, but the strong low-level
shear will allow for a threat of line-embedded tornado, as well.
The timeframe for the greatest risk appears to be from Monday
afternoon through late Monday evening east of a line from Lufkin
TX to Nashville AR. The severe weather threat should end near or
shortly after midnight Tuesday.

Only one other chance for precip exists after midnight Tuesday. A
shortwave trough is progged to move across South Texas during the
day Wednesday, which could provide enough ascent for a few showers
across East Texas. However, latest model guidance suggests the
best lift and the best rain chances should be west of the forecast
area. Otherwise, the second big story after Monday`s storms will
be the cold air that advects into the area behind the front. With
northerly winds and mostly clear skies overnight low temperatures
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning may fall to near or just below
freezing in northern McCurtain County. However, moderating
temperatures are expected for the latter half of the week. Daytime
highs should be approaching 80 degrees F for many locations south
of Interstate 20 next Friday and Saturday.

CN

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated for this entire TAF period.
However, gusty winds will be possible into tomorrow afternoon,
particularly at E. Texas terminals.

/44/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  50  71  63  74 /   0  10  10 100
MLU  43  68  59  75 /   0   0   0  90
DEQ  44  66  54  65 /   0  20  80  90
TXK  46  68  59  68 /   0  20  50  90
ELD  41  66  56  70 /   0  10  10 100
TYR  54  71  60  70 /   0  10  60  80
GGG  51  71  60  70 /   0  10  30  90
LFK  52  74  64  73 /   0  10  10  90

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...44


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