Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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309 FXUS64 KSHV 141433 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 933 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 930 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Areas of dense fog from earlier this morning have completely lifted so the Dense Fog Advisory was allowed to expire at 8 AM. Gradually clearing skies are expected through the remainder of today, and the current forecast reflects this thinking so will not be making any changes at this time. New zones were sent to drop the fog wording. /19/ && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday) Issued at 207 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 A quiet 36-hours is expected across the region, as weak upper- level ridging moves in behind all of this heavy precipitation. However, one can expect things to get rather muggy, as highs will climb into the low-90s by Wednesday. Even with dry air filtering into the region, recent rainfalls will likely result in increased surface level RH values, even if only for a day or two. Such will especially be the case this morning, as decoupled winds are aiding in fog formation across portions of E. Texas. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued to account for this, with most of the dense fog dissipating between 8-9AM. However, patchy fog may linger for a few hours after that. /44/ && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 207 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Heavy rainfall will quickly return to the forecast, as moisture return gets underway by Thursday morning. This return in flow will precede the next trough slated to move through the Plains Thursday into Friday. The bulk of this rainfall looks to be during the overnight hours on Thursday, when a very narrow and heavy axis of rainfall looks to set up in E. Texas and NW. Louisiana. An additional 3-5 inches of rainfall will be possible through Friday night, in areas that have already seen 4-7 inches of rain the last few days. A flood watch will absolutely be need the next few days, as a Moderate Risk ERO has already been introduced by the WPC. I could have probably issued one tonight, but given the placement questions regarding that heaviest axis of rainfall, I figured it would be best to wait. Things should dry out into the weekend, with only a few lingering chances at a shower or thunderstorm. From there, highs will begin to climb into the low to mid-90s, with us potentially seeing our first extended taste of summer temperatures. /44/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 For the 14/12z TAFs...Low cigs remain in place, resulting in reduced flight categories. Patchy dense fog has also developed across the region, mostly affecting our East Texas terminals. The fog should lift over the next couple of hours, followed by a cool front. Expect dry conditions and NW winds in wake of the front, with with mostly sunny skies expected this afternoon. Winds will diminish after sunset. With clear skies expected along with wet soils, more fog is likely overnight. /20/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 84 63 90 69 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 84 61 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 81 56 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 82 60 89 66 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 81 58 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 84 63 89 68 / 0 0 0 10 GGG 84 62 89 67 / 0 0 0 10 LFK 85 62 91 67 / 0 0 0 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...20