217
FXUS64 KSJT 041726
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1226 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...Severe weather expected again this afternoon and evening...

As of 3 AM, a cold front was located just north of Amarillo in the
TX panhandle. This will continue to work its way south through the
panhandle and into the Big Country around late morning. Ahead of
this, southeasterly winds continue to replenish low level moisture
despite repeated convective activity over the West Central Texas
area the past few days. Our area remains in southwest flow aloft
with guidance indicating a shortwave trough ejecting out of the Baja
region and into northern Mexico through the day today. In response,
mid level flow will increase across the area providing better upper
level support. Showers and storms will be possible along and near
the frontal boundary as it sags south through the morning hours. As
the atmosphere destabilizes significantly by mid-afternoon, this is
likely when we will see some robust convective development
along/ahead the front and in the warm sector ahead of a dryline in
far west Texas. With convective temperatures being met across
much of this area by 19-20Z, it won`t take much to get storms to
initiate. Instability should be on par with what we have been
seeing the past few days with MLCAPE values in the 2500-3500 J/kg
range. The notable difference will be the increase in shear (to
between 35-45 kts) and mid/upper level support. This increase in
shear has lead to an increased tornado potential in conjunction
with the continued threat for large to very large hail. Damaging
downburst winds will also be possible but are being considered
more of a secondary threat at this point, even with DCAPE values
well over 1000 J/kg. Initial storms will be supercellular and this
is when the the greatest hail and tornado threat will be. By late
evening, this activity is expected to grow upscale and develop
into an MCS before it travels east/southeast through the area and
into Central Texas. Heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding
concerns is also expected today with nearly all of West Central
Texas in the Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall.
Given how saturated much of the area is from repeated convective
activity over the last week or so, it won`t take much rainfall to
create problems in certain areas, especially across the Big
Country, Heartland, and NW Hill Country. Precipitable water values
are very high areawide in the 1.2-1.7 inch range meaning that
storms will be efficient rainfall producers.

To recap: Storms are expected to form this afternoon and should
quickly become severe. All hazards, including very large hail,
potentially strong tornadoes, damaging winds, and flash flooding
will be possible. Initially discrete cells will develop into an MCS
that will make its way across West Central Texas late this evening
and into the overnight hours. Make sure you have your severe weather
plans in place on the off chance you haven`t needed to utilize them
over the past few days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

After another afternoon and night of severe weather, main brunt of
the convection may be pushing out of West Central Texas by early
Sunday morning. Given this slightly faster movement, have lowered
POPs a little across the area for the time period starting at
sunrise Sunday morning. Some of the CAMs continue to show more
convection redeveloping during the afternoon but with the passage
of the upper level shortwave having already occurred, not
expecting the same type of coverage as we have seen.

After that, a drier pattern will return to West Central Texas and
allow everyone to have a break from the severe weather. Upper
level low over the central plains will continue, helping produce
mainly zonal flow across the area for the upcoming week. Will see
if any weak shortwaves end up getting embedded which may lead to
a small POP for one day, but overall, looks like most areas will
be dry for most of the time. Warmer as well, with afternoon highs
eventually climbing back well into the 90s once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

VFR to MVFR ceilings will persist across the area this afternoon.
A cold front is currently moving south through the Concho Valley,
with the front just north of San Angelo at 17Z. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop along and behind the front
early this afternoon, with showers/storms becoming more numerous
this afternoon and evening, then merging into a complex as it
moves east/southeast overnight. Updated the timing for convection
based on latest latest hi-res model guidance and will amend as
necessary. Expect MVFR/possible IFR ceilings to overspread the
area overnight into Sunday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     61  78  65  87 /  90  20  10  10
San Angelo  62  79  65  90 /  80  40  10  10
Junction    64  81  68  87 /  80  60  10  10
Brownwood   62  77  65  84 /  90  20  10  20
Sweetwater  60  76  65  89 /  90  20  10  10
Ozona       62  78  66  87 /  80  50  10  10
Brady       63  76  67  83 /  90  40  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for Brown-Callahan-Coke-
Coleman-Concho-Haskell-Jones-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-
Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Shackelford-Sutton-Taylor-
Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...24