877
FXUS64 KSJT 030545
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1245 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...Severe weather possible today and tomorrow...

A surface low is currently located just to our northwest, with a dry
line across out western most counties and a cold front moving in
from the north. Storms are expected to form later this afternoon and
evening near the low, where the dry line and front interact. Most
models have storms developing in the Big Country starting around 4
this afternoon and continuing overnight. We are seeing some cumulus
development in Nolan County, which could be a precursor for
thunderstorms in the next couple of hours. The majority of models
show most of the activity staying in the Big Country, Heartland, and
northern Concho Valley, with a few storms finding their way into the
our southern counties. Instability will be very high this afternoon
(4000+ J/Kg possible) and wind shear values will be sufficient for
severe development. With the instability as high as it is, storms
could very quickly become severe once they develop and outflow
boundary`s could trigger new storms. The main threat today will be
large hail (2+ inches), but damaging winds and an isolated tornado
are also possible. Localized flooding will also be possible with
these storms, as rain amounts could exceed 2 inches under isolated
storms.

Tomorrow will be slightly cooler for the Big Country, as the cold
front keeps winds from the north and east for the start of Friday.
Winds will return back to the southeast for much of the area and the
dry line will retreat westward again, leaving us with dewpoints in
the 60s and 70s. CAPE values could be in excess of 3000 J/Kg by the
late afternoon. Weak convergence on any residual boundaries and an
upper level disturbance aloft could be enough to produce storms in
the late afternoon. CAMs are differing on coverage for tomorrow. The
HRRR is bringing much more widespread activity, with storms
developing to the west and moving into the area. With the large
instability and sufficient shear, any storm that develops could
produce very large hail, strong winds, and possibly a tornado.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Thunderstorm chances will persist across the area into the upcoming
weekend. On Saturday, a cold front will push south into north Texas
during the afternoon hours and then sag south into portions of
the Big Country Saturday evening. Also, a dryline will be situated
across west Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along
the cold front and dryline by late afternoon and early evening, as
large scale ascent increases due to an embedded shortwave in
southwest flow aloft. The airmass within the warm sector will be
moist and unstable, with PW (precipitable water) values between
1.5 and 1.75 inches and CAPE`s around 3000 J/kg. Showers and
thunderstorms should become quite numerous across the area
Saturday evening into the overnight hours, as a strong easterly
low level jet develops. Heavy rainfall is possible, along with
a threat for severe storms capable of producing large hail and
damaging winds. At this time, the greatest threat for severe
storms and heavy rainfall will be from the Concho Valley and
Heartland north into the Big Country. With southwest flow aloft
continuing on Sunday, there will be a continued chance for showers
and thunderstorms across the area. Given adequate shear and
instability, additional severe storms are possible.

A large upper trough is expected to move north of our area on
Monday, with the dryline mixing east into eastern portions of the
forecast area by late afternoon. Thunderstorms may develop along
and east of the dryline over far eastern sections Monday
afternoon but the better chances will stay north and east of the
area. Looking for a dry forecast Tuesday through Thursday, along
with above normal temperatures through the period, with
temperatures pushing well into the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

VFR to MVFR ceilings are currently present across the area. Low-end
MVFR to IFR stratus is expected to overspread the area in the coming
hours, impacting all terminals through the remainder of the
overnight hours and continuing until mid/late morning. Ceilings
should lift back to VFR between 16-18Z with clearing from southwest
to northeast. Some degradations in visibility will be possible,
especially at KBBD and KJCT through 12Z. Winds out of the southeast
will increase tomorrow afternoon and may become gusty to around 20
kts at some sites. Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible
during the afternoon and evening hours but due to uncertainty in
overall coverage, have left a mention of VCTS. Upgrades to prevailing
groups in future updates will likely be needed as hi-res guidance
continues to come in.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     82  64  80  61 /  40  40  70  90
San Angelo  90  64  87  63 /  40  30  60  80
Junction    90  66  87  65 /  30  20  30  70
Brownwood   83  66  81  63 /  30  40  60  80
Sweetwater  84  63  79  61 /  40  40  80  90
Ozona       89  64  84  63 /  40  30  40  70
Brady       84  66  81  63 /  30  30  50  80

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...50