Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
000
FXUS65 KTFX 131011
AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
411 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Through Monday, warmer than normal temperatures are forecast, with
highs ranging 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal. By Wednesday,
forecast highs are about 10 degrees below normal. Today and
tomorrow, isolated thunderstorm activity is forecast to impact the
region. Widespread snow is forecast for the mid-week period.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Note: The forecast area for the National Weather Service Great Falls
Weather Forecast Office includes north central, central and
southwest Montana.
Main points:
- Thunderstorms producing erratic gusty winds, today and tomorrow
- Warmer than normal temperatures through Monday
- Cooler than normal temperatures by Wednesday
- Accumulating snowfall at all elevations, Tuesday and Wednesday
Today through Monday...Week upper level ridging ahead of an upper
level North Pacific Trof dominates through the weekend. Warm
temperatures are forecast through Monday, with highs ranging 10
to 15 degrees, and more, warmer than normal. Clear to scattered
skies favors warming of the Earth`s surface. Most unstable CAPE
values range between 500 and 100 J/kg during the afternoon hours.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) includes our region in an area
of general thunderstorm activity for Saturday and Sunday
afternoon and evening. These thunderstorms are forecast to produce
erratic gusty winds and rain showers. Monday, an upper level trof
enters the Canadian British Columbia west coast, and moves east
southeastward, causing ridge collapse and favoring some strong
gusty winds, especially, across The Northern Rocky Mountain Front.
Rainfall is forecast across portions of central and southwest
Montana.
Tuesday and Wednesday...The afore mentioned upper level trof
approaching from British Columbia, along with the attendant
surface front, enters our region from the north. Tuesday,
temperatures begin to cool, and by Wednesday, high temperatures
are, generally, forecast around 10 degrees below normal. Rainfall
is forecast during the warmer hours, with snowfall developing as
temperatures cool. Widespread snowfall is forecast during the
cooler hours. As road surface temperatures cool, moisture freezes
on surfaces. These surfaces, then, become covered with a layer of
snow, creating some dangerous travel conditions. There is a 40% to
70% probability for Glacier National Park, Kings Hill and the Big
Sky area to receive six inches, or more, of snow. Having said
this, numerical model guidance has been trending lower snow
amounts; therefore, as of this time, there is low confidence in
precipitation type, snow amounts and event timing. As we are able
to gain higher confidence, Watches/Advisories, will be issued.
Widespread breezy to gusty winds are forecast for Tuesday and
Wednesday, with the strongest winds occurring on Tuesday.
Thursday through Next Saturday...An upper level ridge moves into
our region, favoring a warming trend. Precipitation continues into
Thursday, with most moisture falling as rain. Some light snowfall
is forecast to fall across the mountains. By Saturday, high
temperatures are forecast closer to normal. Breezy to mildy gusty
winds are forecast, most days, and conditions are, generally, mild
and dry, Friday through next Saturday.
- Fogleman
&&
.AVIATION...
1140 PM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024 (13/06Z TAF Period)
A few light rain showers will move from west to east across the CWA
overnight, with most showers just lasting an hour or two. Expect
clearing by mid morning Saturday, with the next round of
thunderstorms over Southwest MT generally after 00z Sun. These
storms will mainly affect areas along/south of I-90. Breezy winds
over Southwest MT currently will diminish overnight tonight.
Mountains/passes will be obscured for short times as
showers/thunderstorms move through. Brusda
Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 71 43 74 47 / 10 0 20 30
CTB 66 36 70 43 / 0 0 0 10
HLN 74 44 75 46 / 10 10 20 30
BZN 72 39 72 38 / 20 20 10 20
WYS 62 28 61 26 / 10 0 10 10
DLN 70 39 68 37 / 20 20 10 10
HVR 70 39 74 46 / 10 0 0 20
LWT 66 41 71 43 / 10 10 20 30
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls