Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 250241
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
841 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024


.SYNOPSIS...

Across the area there will be a gradual warmup through
Thursday before the next system begins to move into the area on
Friday. There will be primarily isolated light snow showers tonight
through Wednesday. The new system will bring precipitation
chances and cooler temperatures to the area Friday through next
weekend. There will be breezy conditions on Wednesday and Thursday
primarily along the Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

.UPDATE...

The current forecast only needed a minor update to overnight
temperatures in areas where observations are showing cold
temperatures in the low teens and single digits already, primarily
along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front and along the Hi-Line. Areas
that could see some clearing skies along with the recent snowfall
could develop patchy fog in the morning (20%), use extra caution
during the morning commute tomorrow as visibility could be
quickly reduced due to the fog. Wet pavements from melting snow
today have potential to be re-freezing that can cause icy surfaces
tonight. The rest of the forecast is doing well and on track for
tonight and tomorrow morning. Webb

&&

.AVIATION...
520 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024 (25/00Z TAF Period)

Light isolated snow showers across the area continues through the
beginning of the TAF period. Vicinity fog could be observed tomorrow
morning so it was included in some TAFs for airfields with higher
probability of occurring. Low level cloudiness continues throughout
the TAF period, with general improvement for tomorrow afternoon
across Southwest and North Central Montana, especially after 18z.
Mountain obstruction continues into tomorrow afternoon. Webb

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 520 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024/

This afternoon through Monday... Snow will be ending
across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana for most
locations by this evening. There will still be light isolated snow
showers tonight through early Monday morning. The Winter Weather
Advisories for all but Northwest Beaverhead County have been
cancelled due to snow ending and roads improving. The Winter Weather
Advisory for Northwest Beaverhead goes until 9 AM Monday due to a
flash freeze most likely occurring after sunset tonight and
additional snowfall through Monday morning. In any areas where skies
clear overnight, patchy fog is likely to form Monday morning. On
Monday there will be northwest flow aloft but high temperatures
across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana begin to
warm up. There is a stationary front that will move through
Southwestern Montana during the day on Monday which will bring
precipitation chances to Southwestern Montana. On Monday the
mountains of Southwestern Montana have a 60-80% chance of receiving
a tenth of an inch of snow or more.

Tuesday and Wednesday... On Tuesday an upper-level ridge will begin
to move into North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On
Tuesday along the Rocky Mountain Front and along and south of the
Montana Hwy 200 corridor there are snow chances due to a warm front
that moves through the area from the southwest. On Tuesday in the
lower-elevations along and south of the Montana Highway 200 corridor
there is a 20-50% chance for a tenth of an inch of snow or more. On
Tuesday along the Rocky Mountain Front and the mountains south of
the Montana Highway 200 corridor there is a 90% chance of a tenth of
an inch of snow or more. On Tuesday the Little Belt Mountains have a
80% chance of receiving an inch of snow or more. On Tuesday high
temperatures continue to warm up across the area. On Wednesday the
upper-level ridge stays in place over North-central, Central, and
Southwestern Montana. This ridge combined with west and southwest
winds aloft will continue the warming trend to about seasonal
averages for high temperatures. There will be gusty winds along the
Rocky Mountain front on Wednesday due to a strong surface pressure
gradient force. On Wednesday there is a 80% chance of wind gusts
greater than 47 mph along the Rocky Mountain Front. On Wednesday the
lower-elevations of North-central, Central, Southwestern Montana
will remain dry. On Wednesday the Rocky Mountain Front and the
mountains of Southwestern Montana have a 50% chance of receiving a
tenth of an inch of snow or more.

Thursday through next Sunday...On Thursday the upper-level ridge
stays in place over North-central, Central, and Southwestern
Montana. However there is an emebedded short wave that will bring
widespread precipitation chances to the area. Temperatures will stay
warm on Thursday across North-central, Central, and Southwestern
Montana. Winds will be gusty along the Rocky Mountain Front and in
areas of Southwestern Montana where the probably for wind gusts
exceeding 47 mph is 50%. On Thursday the mountains of Southwestern
Montana have a 70% chance of receiving an inch of snow or more. On
Thursday along the Rocky Mountain Front there is a 90% chance of a
tenth of an inch of snow or more. On Thursday there is a 10-20%
chance of the lower-elevations of North-central, Central and
Southwestern Montana receiving a quarter inch of rain. On Friday
clusters and deterministic models are in agreement that an upper-
level trough is situated just off the Pacific coast. The strength
and positioning of the upper-level trough differ. However, this
indicates that a pattern change is coming to North-central, Central,
and Southwestern Montana on Friday. On Saturday and next Sunday
clusters indicate that the upper-level trough is situated in the
Southwestern US. This will bring a more active pattern to North-
central, Central, and Southwestern Montana for next weekend. -IG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   7  30  15  39 /  20   0  10  30
CTB   4  25  10  37 /  30   0  10  10
HLN  16  40  23  47 /  30  10  10  40
BZN  14  36  19  44 /  20  10  10  40
WYS   5  36   9  37 /  10  30  20  70
DLN  19  39  23  43 /  30  10  10  20
HVR   7  26   5  31 /  10   0  10  10
LWT   5  27  12  36 /  40  10  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT Monday for Northwest
Beaverhead County.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls


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