Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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355 FXUS63 KTOP 091726 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1226 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry for the remainder of the week, with seasonable temperatures in the 70s. - Precipitation chances (30-60%) return Sunday and persist through Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 A breezy and mild day today with northerly wind gusting to 25 mph as cold air advection and a steeper pressure gradient develop. Upper-level flow will split across the central Plains today with an upper-level low pushing off to the east toward the Great Lakes and another retrograding west toward the Four Corners region. This will keep us in a favorable pattern for dry and mild conditions through the end of the week. By Saturday night, the upper-level low to the west will begin propagating eastward into the Plains. Precipitation chances are likely to increase Saturday night into Sunday as the low moves into the Central Plains. Most 00 UTC models have the center of the low slowly moving across Kansas through early next week. This could lead to a prolonged period of rainy/stormy weather for our area. Instability and shear are also favored to return to the area by next week, bringing chances for severe storms to our area once again. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 VFR TAFs will be expected at all sites through the period with a breezy and mostly clear forecast. Winds will remain out of the northwest/north and begin to decrease below 10 knots around sunset. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jones AVIATION...Griesemer