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000
FXUS64 KTSA 211904
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
204 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Sfc high pressure settles over the region overnight with ideal
radiational conditions expected across far E OK / NW AR with sfc
winds turning southerly before sunrise for more western areas.
Frost advisory has been issued for far NW AR with temps falling
into the low to mid 30 especially in colder valleys. Similarly
cold temps may be realized in isolated spots within the coldest
valleys of far SE OK.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Temps warm quickly Monday morning with southerly winds increasing
and becoming gusty across NE OK through the day. Any areas where
dormant fine fuels remain could see an uptick in fire spread
potential. The warming trend continues into Tuesday ahead of the
next cold front which is expected into NE OK by Tuesday afternoon
and slowly advancing southward and possibly stalling across
southern area by Wednesday morning. A slight chances of showers
and storms appears warranted for Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night both along and north of the frontal boundary.

Wednesday into Wed. night has been a more consistent signal for
higher shower and storm coverage along and north of the stalled
boundary. The Wed. night into early Thursday period could see
precip chances increase area wide as the pattern evolves into
strengthening low level warm advection downstream of the wave
advancing from the southwest CONUS.

The warm front will eventually lift or reorganize north of the
forecast area by early Friday with the expanding warm sector
enveloping the forecast area ahead of the ejecting mid level wave.
Friday continues to trend toward high thunderstorm coverage and
likely a risk of severe weather. The pattern quickly reloads with
another strong wave over the southwestern CONUS by early Saturday
and this wave will similarly maintain thunderstorm chances and
risk of severe weather into next weekend with more specific timing
details refined as the forecast evolves.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period at all terminals.
Thin high clouds will move away, leaving clear skies everywhere by
tonight. Breezy north to northeast winds will become calm
overnight, with southerly breezes beginning Monday morning after
sunrise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   37  72  54  79 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   38  71  49  79 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   36  70  54  79 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   33  73  51  78 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   33  69  49  77 /   0   0   0  20
BYV   34  68  50  76 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   36  69  52  77 /   0   0   0  20
MIO   35  68  52  74 /   0   0  10  20
F10   37  69  53  78 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   37  67  49  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Monday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...06