Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 281716
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1116 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE COMING IN THIS MORNING IS SHOWING
MLCAPE OF 500-800 J/KG...WITH A WEAK CAP OVER THE BLKHLS AND
PORTIONS OF NE WY. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD MINIMAL POPS FOR
THE AFTN HOURS OVER THESE AREAS. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 157 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH NORTHEAST WYOMING...WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA.
NORTHEAST WYOMING ACTIVITY WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING. SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE DROPPING
THROUGH THE PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER WARM DAY FOR
MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED TSRA FOR THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 157 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TUESDAY AS A
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BRING WARM AIR INTO THE
REGION...ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON
TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE BRIEFLY DRY BEFORE A SECOND WAVE PASSES
THROUGH...BRINGING MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. FOLLOWING A COUPLE OF COOL FRONTS...THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE COOLER...BUT NEAR AVERAGE...IN THE LOWER
80S. UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED -TSRA
MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY/BLACK
HILLS...AND THEN POSSIBLY OVER FAR NORTHWEST SD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...HELGESON



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