Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38

FXUS63 KUNR 242008

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
208 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Broad upper ridge covers most of the CONUS, with a strong low
pressure system off the Pac NW coast. Mid/high clouds continue to
stream into the northern plains from the west. A surface trough
stretches through MT and eastern WY, with winds across the SD
plains southeasterly around 15 to 20 kts. Temperatures at 2 PM
range from near 50 across northwestern SD to near 70 across
southwestern SD.

As the surface trough begins to push through the CWA tonight, moist
southeasterly upsloping flow may result in some fog and/or drizzle
stretching across south central through northwestern SD Tuesday
morning. Associated weak upper wave may produce some scattered
showers, but most of the precip will be over eastern SD/ND as the
wave strengthens Tuesday afternoon. Mostly cloudy skies in the
morning will gradually clear throughout the day. Highs Tuesday will
be generally in the 60s, a little warmer across southwestern SD and
a little cooler across northwestern SD. Lows tonight and Tuesday
night will be in the upper 30s to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Through Monday)
Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

The upper ridge will persist over the Rockies through
Thursday, giving us dry conditions and above average temperatures.
An upper trough will temporarily flatten the ridge as it tracks
along the US-Canadian border Thursday night and Friday. A lee side
surface trof will develop over eastern MT Thursday, and south to
southwest winds bringing strong warm air advection that will warm
highs around 10 degrees warmer than average. The storm system will
strengthen over the upper Great Lakes, allowing cooler air to move
into the area for the weekend, although temperatures will still be
at or slightly above normal. A few more weak systems cross the
northern Plains and could clip parts of the forecast area. As a
deeper trof comes onshore from the Pacific Ocean Sunday, showers will
spread ahead of it on southwest flow.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued At 205 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Some mid-level cigs will spread across the forecast area
as a weak upper level system tracks across WY into northwestern SD.
Winds will be south to southeast today, then switch to the northwest
Tuesday morning.




SHORT TERM...Pojorlie
AVIATION...55 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.