Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 310901
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
301 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS CROSSING MT SOUTH TO WY WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED WAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OVER WY. IR SAT/NEIGHBORING RADAR
SHOWS SHRA OVER WY QUICKLY PUSHING EWD. MEANWHILE OVER THE
CWA...SMALL SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE DEPARTING E OF THE CWA
IS LEAVING QUIET WEATHER OVER THE AREA ATTM. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
CROSS THE CWA TODAY BRINGING SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREA. MLCAPE WILL BE
WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY...500 TO 1000 J/KG TODAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CAP...STILL ENOUGH FOR SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT. STRONG FORCING W/
THIS WAVE WARRANTS KEEPING AND EXPANDING LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA. GIVEN THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM...QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE
UNDER A HALF INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COOL 60S OVER NE WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS...ESPECIALLY AS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THOSE AREA MUCH
OF THE DAY. THE SD PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 70S AND
MORNING HEATING COMMENCES BEFORE THE CLOUDS ROLL IN. BREEZY NW
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WITH REINFORCING
COLD AIR ADVECTION.

SEVERAL UPPER WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES REGION WILL SLOW DOWN THE EWD PROGRESSION OF
THE OVERALL PATTERN. A SERIES OF WAVES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE CWA
MONDAY...WITH A REPEAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. WITH WEAKER FORCING AND LESS MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA ACTIVITY. MLCAPE WILL
BE WEAKER MONDAY THAN TODAY...BUT COULD STILL SEE ISOLATED STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S. PRECIP WILL END
OVER THE AREA BY LATE MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...BRINGING FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. STRONG WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...PUSHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. BEST FORCING STAYS NORTH OF FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH A FEW POST FRONTAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY. MODELS DIVERGE FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH ECMWF BRINGING
STRONG SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY...WHILE GFS MAINTAINS
UPPER TROF OVER WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS. TRENDED
TOWARDS ECMWF...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SMALL POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. LCL MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7







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