Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 141947
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
147 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

CENTRAL CANADIAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE LAST ASSOCIATED SOUTHERN PERIPHERY UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING A SHRA ACROSS THE FAR SE. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
IN THE PERIOD...WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON TAP FOR MONDAY.

TONIGHT...CLOUD DECK FROM WEAK POS THETA-E ADV UNDER A REMNANT
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WILL CLEAR WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SHIFT EAST. WEAK SFC TROUGH ADVECTING THROUGH THE
REGION MAY SUPPORT A SHOWER AROUND TRIPP COUNTY THIS EVENING. NOT
TOO EXCITED ABOUT RAIN CHANCES GIVEN DISMAL MOISTURE PROFILES AND
GENERAL WEAK FORCING. OPTED FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. CLEARING WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT WITH FROST POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WESTERN HALF.

MONDAY...SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT SE OF THE AREA WITH LEE SIDE
TROUGHING SUPPORTING INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. WARMER
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S...WARMEST
OVER NE WY. WARMER NIGHT ON TRACK MONDAY. ONGOING LL PRESSURE FALLS
WILL SUPPORT A WEAK NOCTURNAL LLJ WITH TERRAIN INDUCED DOWNSLOPING
EXPECTED IN USUAL AREAS AT TIMES IN ADDITION TO NE WY. THIS SHOULD
HOLD TEMPS UP AT MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE
CWA ON THURSDAY /WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE AREA/ WILL SEE THE
WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK ON THURSDAY. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE BLACK
HILLS...GIVEN WESTERN RIDGE POSITION. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
SLIDE EAST AND BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH INCREASING PACIFIC
MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. WESTERN RIDGE THEN REFORMS AND
BUILDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...MLS





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