Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 191516
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
916 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
NEB...WITH LEE TROF LOCATED FROM CENTRAL MT INTO NORTHEAST WY.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND A TROF ALONG
THE CA COAST. SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVING DISSIPATED.
TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING OVER WESTERN AREAS AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.

A MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...AT LEAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN UT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE MAIN
CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN THAT WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN WARMER AND MOISTER AIR THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE PLAINS...WITH 80S OVER THE BLACK HILLS. HAVE UPDATED TO RAISE
HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS AND TRIM
BACK POPS A BIT OVER WESTERN AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 316 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WITH DEEP TROF DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST. SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES HANGING
ON ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH
LEE TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM ARE IN THE 50S AND 60S.

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WARMER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AS SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH MOSTLY 80S OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE WESTERN TROF AND
CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RESULT...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY
LOW. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM WITH
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ONCE
AGAIN...A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. STORMS WILL SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA BY MID EVENING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 316 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO WORK THROUGH THE WRN CONUS
IN THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD...THEN INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM ON THURSDAY...BUT THEN
COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BY THE WEEKEND AS THE TROF MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 316 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

SCT TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN OVER NERN WY AND THE BLKHLS...THEN
SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS OF WRN SD TONIGHT. IFR VSBYS EXPECTED
IN HEAVIER STORMS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON





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