Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 210446
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
946 PM MST Fri Jan 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Saturday Night)
Issued at 206 PM MST Fri Jan 20 2017

Latest upper analysis shows an upper trough currently affecting the
northern plains. Lift associated with the upper trough and the N-S
oriented baroclinic zone will continue to produce light snow or
flurries into this evening over parts of northeastern Wyoming and
far western South Dakota. A tight T/Td spread will lead to areas
of fog forming again tonight with most likely locations for more
widespread fog located over the Black Hills, and toward central
SD. On Saturday,temps will be similar to today but with a bit more
wind behind the departing wave. Dry weather is expected Saturday
and Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Through Friday)
Issued at 206 PM MST Fri Jan 20 2017

Dry weather is expected Sunday into Monday as an upper
level low drifts well northeast of the region and weak ridging
crosses the northern high plains. Highs on Sunday and Monday in most
areas will be near average.

A broad upper level trough will cross the Rockies late Monday into
Monday night and then cross the plains on Tuesday. Latest medium
range models show an upper low developing across Nebraska as the
trough moves east across the region. Still some small differences
between the models with regard to timing and track of this system,
but they remain in decent overall agreement. GFS remains a little
more northerly with the track of the low compared to the EC and GEM,
but all show a fairly quick moving system. The focus for more
significant snowfall at this time looks to be across portions of
eastern WY, southern SD, and northern Neb, where there is potential
for several inches of snow with the current projected track for
later Monday night into Tuesday.

Below average temperatures and mainly dry conditions look likely for
the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued At 943 PM MST Fri Jan 20 2017

Area of rain/snow moving across western South Dakota this evening
with IFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR visibility. This area of
precipitation will dissipate overnight with MVFR/IFR ceilings
lingering into Saturday morning. Elsewhere, local IFR
visibilities expected in patchy fog tonight into Saturday
morning. VFR conditions expected late Saturday morning through
Saturday evening.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...7



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