Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 120210
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
810 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH VERY SLOWLY EWD ACROSS SRN
SD...WITH ISOLD/SCT ACTIVITY ELSEHWERE ACROSS THE CWFA. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MAIN UPPER WAVE STILL
LOCATED TO OUR WEST OVER UT/WRN CO/SRN WY...BUT SVR STORMS ARE
UNLIKELY. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY...WITH REST
OF FCST ELEMENTS GENERALLY ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTHWEST MN TO
SOUTHWEST SD TO CENTRAL WY...SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MT/SOUTHERN AB. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1-2KJ/KG AND MLCIN
ERODING ALONG THE FRONT...AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 15-20M/S
0-6KM EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS NOTED WHICH MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE
TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING. MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE
FROM SOUTHWEST WY INTO WESTERN NE...AND AS THE COOL FRONT BOUNDARY
SINKS SOUTH...BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE TSRA WILL BE LOCATED NEAR
THE SD/NE BORDER. LATER THIS EVENING ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION
INTO A GENERAL SHRA/TSRA REGIME WITH A FEW CLUSTERS MOVING THROUGH
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN TD/S.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE CWA FROM THE
NORTH...BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE
TO BE PRESENT. OVERNIGHT SHRA/TSRA MAY STILL BE OCCURRING IN THE
MORNING...AND MORE WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK
HEATING...BUT TREND WILL BE DOWNWARD WITH DRIER AIR/CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MAINLY DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG AND COOL UPPER LOW SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. OTHERWISE...A MAINLY DRY AND
COOL PATTERN WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. A SLOW WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 805 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN
EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AFT MIDNIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JOHNSON






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