Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 160937
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
237 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Monday)
Issued at 235 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

Current surface map shows arctic high across the eastern Dakotas.
Clear skies across the forecast area with very cold temperatures,
with teens below zero across northwest South Dakota. For today,
high will drop southeast with return flow across the forecast
area. Highs will climb into the 30s for portions of northeast
Wyoming and the Black Hills, while highs only get into the teens
for northwest South Dakota.

Fast moving shortwave will move along the Canadian border
Wednesday with upper level ridge shifting into the northern plains
Thursday. Warm and dry conditions expected Wed-Thur with
temperatures 10-15F above average. May be some light precipitation
across northeast Wyoming late Friday.

Upper trof crosses the Rockies and into the plains for the
weekend. This will result in cooler temperatures for the
weekend. Models still remain uncertain with strength/track of
upper low with ensemble members show wide spread in precipitation
potential.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued At 1028 PM MST Mon Jan 15 2018

MVFR cigs across eastern SD will drift westward into south central
SD through the overnight hours. These will primarily be limited to
areas southeast of a KPHP to KIEN line. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected through the TAF period. Continue to think the
potential for wind gusts across northeastern WY on Tuesday will
be limited by a very strong inversion over the lowest 2000 ft,
but may still see a few gusts 20-25 kt.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning for
     SDZ001-002-012>014-025-031-032-042>044-046-047-049-072-073.

WY...Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for WYZ054-056-
     071.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...Sherburn


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