Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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512
FXUS63 KUNR 010823
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
223 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW ACROSS MISSOURI...WITH 1027MB HIGH
ACROSS MONTANA. REGIONAL RADAR HAS SOME LIGHT RAIN STILL FALLING
ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH
RAIN SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

ON MONDAY...SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. MODELS
HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE OVER
THE PAST TWO DAY. WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

WEATHER WILL BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND HIGHS IN
THE 70S. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HILLS ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...OMEGA-BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS AS
A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER SOUTHERN CA. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
LOW SHIFTING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND UPPER ENERGY ROTATING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW THIS LOW OVERTAKING THE RIDGE...WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SCT MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL TREND VFR
AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED ALL PLACES THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE



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