Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 132000
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
200 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

PERTURBED NW FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE IMPULSE IS IN THE PROCESS OF
ADVECTING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ANOTHER ON TRACK TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW. LIMITED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF SUNDAY/S
IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN
FA...POSSIBLY ALLOWING A FEW HIGH BASED SHRA AS LSA INCREASES LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON EVENING. COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS
RE-ENFORCING CAA EXPECTED BEHIND BOTH IMPULSES.

TONIGHT...PRIMARY IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT THROUGH THE REGION
SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF LSA. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL ONLY RESULT IN
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. LL CAA WILL
RE-ENFORCE CP AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH MOST PLACES SEEING 30S FOR
LOWS. AREAS OF FROST WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN
HALF.

SUNDAY...MID/HIGH PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE FA...SUPPORTING
LIKELY CIRRUS AND MID CLOUD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. LL POS THETA-E
ADV /NOTED WELL AT H7/ WITH THE NEXT IMPULSE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LATE AFTERNOON SHRA ACROSS SCENTRAL SD...MAINLY TRIPP COUNTY
AND EAST. ALTHOUGH DRY PROFILES WILL LIMIT POPS TO NO MORE THAN 20.
OTHERWISE...COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH 50S AND LOW 60S
EXPECTED MOST PLACES...WARMEST OVER FAR WESTERN NE WY ZONES...WHERE
WAA IS PROGGED. COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S AND 40S UNDER CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND
EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13





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