Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 041132
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
532 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWA. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATING WEATHER OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH RETURN FLOW OVER THE CWA.
CONVERGENCE OVER THE BLACK HILLS MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED -TSRA
GIVEN 250-500J/KG SBCAPE AND VERY WEAK SBCIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HINT AT THIS SCENARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOUT 5F WARMER THAN TUESDAY GIVEN WARM AIR ADVECTION/THICKNESS
INCREASES.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH NICE WEATHER ON
TAP. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10F HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD 80S. CIN/SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION EVEN WITH MODEST INSTABILITY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LOW
MOVES ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY SUNDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AFTER THIS LOW EXITS...ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY...BEFORE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
OVERALL THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS AND COOLER...BUT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

AVERAGE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS
TO UPPER 20S TODAY AND MID TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND AVERAGE 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA REACHING
10 TO 20 MPH THURSDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...MLS
FIRE WEATHER...HELGESON


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