Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KUNR 200455
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1055 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER TRIPP COUNTY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CWFA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. ADDITIONAL ISOLD TSRA IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
PARTS OF NERN WY AND WCNTRL SD LATE THIS EVENING...AND HI-RES
MODELS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AS IT DRIFTS SEWD
OVERNIGHT SO HAVE ADDED ISOLD POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 801 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ISOLD TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED OVER JACKSON COUNTY...ALONG THE TAIL END
OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. EXPECTED THIS ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING/TRACKING SEWD THROUGH SCNTRL SD OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS SO HAVE EXPANDED POPS FOR THAT AREA. OTHER THAN
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER...NOTHING ELSE CHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN ND INTO
NORTHEAST CO. LOW PRESSURE CONNECTED TO COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
MB BRINGING MODERATE GRADIENT TO NORTHWEST SD THIS AFTERNOON AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER CWA UNDER LEFT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 110KT JET STREAK SUPPRESSING PRECIPITATION OVER
THE CWA. THIS MAY CHANGE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
SD AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS WY/MT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT
CHANCES WILL BE SMALL. SHRA/TSRA WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST
MT/NORTHWEST ND...BUT SHOULD STAY OUT OF CWA OVERNIGHT GIVEN LOSS
OF SOLAR INSOLATION THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR
GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH/SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA
WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS NEAR GUIDANCE...AND ABOUT 5F LOWER THAN TODAY.
VERY GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD BRING BREEZY SPOTS TO THE SD
PLAINS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY
SUNDAY...MAKING FOR A MILD AND DRY DAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
ABOUT A CUT-OFF LOW CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING IN THE DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW PHASES BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE CLEARING
OUT SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH BRIEF
MVFR VSBYS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SAT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JOHNSON





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.