Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 220439
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1039 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday)
Issued at 257 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Current surface analysis shows cold front east of the Dakotas
now, with high pressure centered over the Great Basin. Tight
pressure gradient remains over the area with breezy to windy
conditions over the CWA. The strongest winds have been over
northwest SD, with some gusts to around 50 mph. Upper level
analysis shows shortwave axis over the western Dakotas. Showers
have moved out of the far eastern CWA, with clearing skies and
drier air moving in from the west. Much cooler air is in place,
with temps in the 50s and lower 60s.

Winds will diminish toward sunset with mostly clear skies tonight
and lows mostly in the 30s. The cooler air will be short-lived as
warmer air advects in later tonight and Sunday. Highs will mostly be
in the mid 60s to mid 70s with variably cloudy skies and breezy west
to southwest winds in some areas. Another cold front passage Sunday
night will bring gusty winds and cooler air for early next week.
Could see wind gusts near or above 50 mph across a good portion of
the western and south central SD plains on Monday. Trailing
shortwave energy could bring some showers Sunday night, mainly
across northeast WY, the Black Hills, and northwest SD.

The see-saw with temperatures will likely continue through much of
next week. Warmer air will return briefly midweek before another
cold front is progged to cross the region Wednesday night into
Thursday with colder air, gusty winds, and chances for rain/snow
showers. There will be some rather chilly air in place for the end
of the week if the latest GFS and EC are correct, with highs only in
the 30s across some areas Thursday and Friday. Next weekend looks
rather cool and possibly unsettled, as active northwest flow is
progged to continue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued At 1037 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017

VFR conditions expected through the period. Gusty westerly winds
will develop over NE WY late tonight and then spread east during
the day Sunday. A cold front will enter the region Sunday
evening, bringing gusty NW winds and sct SHRA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...JC



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