Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 161130
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
530 AM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Friday Night)
Issued at 201 AM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Progressive amplified flow will continue through the period. An
upper level trough will advect through the region today supporting
a cold front through the region with associated gusty NW winds.
Warm temps can be expected ahead of the front with highs in the
mid 60s to mid 70s, warmest over SW SD. Main lobe of ascent will
pass north of the region. However, diurnal instability this
afternoon and cold front aloft/lsa may provide enough lift for
widely sct high based showers far west this afternoon and much of
the fa this evening. Otherwise, breezy NW winds will continue
Friday with CAA supporting temps closer but still above seasonal
norms for most areas Friday under breezy NW winds. Dry weather
will prevail Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Through Wednesday)
Issued at 201 AM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Flow will remain progressive, but become more amplified in the
period, supporting deeper/stronger troughs into the CONUS per
active northern PAC flow. This will support a stronger upper level
trough into the region this weekend. Strong shortwave ridging
ahead of this system will bring very warm temps to the region Sat
under breezy WSW flow. Cold front will push through the region
Sunday, bringing breezy winds and cooler temps most areas, save
scentral SD. Post frontal lift may support a few showers across
the region, mainly Sunday night, with better chances for precip
across the fa Monday as a secondary impulse advects through the
region. Unsettled and near seasonal to slightly above seasonal
temps expected much of next week. ECMWF/GFS progs suggest a
stronger system could affect the region toward Thur-Fri next week,
with perhaps appreciable precip for portions of the FA. Something
to keep an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued At 527 AM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

VFR conditions will continue through the period. A cold front will
move through the region today with winds veering NW and
increasing. Sct shra will be possible across much of the area
late this afternoon and evening behind the front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 201 AM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

A cold front will bring gusty NW winds to the area this
afternoon, especially from southern Campbell county into far SW
SD. Relative humidity will fall into the middle teens, supporting
near critical fire weather conditions as winds gust over 30 mph.

Warm dry westerly flow will support critical to near critical
fire weather conditions once again Saturday, especially NE WY and
SW SD. Fire weather headlines may be needed, esp if gusty winds
and deep mixing materialize.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...JC



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