Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 141618
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1018 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

MODEST WAVE MOVING THROUGH NWRLY UPPER FLOW IS PRODUCING A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER WRN/S CTRL SD. HAVE PUT SOME LOW POPS IN
TO ADDRESS THIS AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH THE MAIN AXIS CROSSING WRN SD
AT THIS TIME. STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS
BUILDING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
OVER SW ND...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT OVER ERN MT INTO
CNTRL WY. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT OVER THE CWA...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SNOW ARE CROSSING THE WESTERN ND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
PASSING WAVE AND THE SURFACE LOW.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TO THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT A FEW OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY CLIP PARTS OF NW/CNTRL SD THIS MORNING. HAVE THROWN
IN MENTION OF OCCASIONAL FLURRIES JUST TILL 15Z. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY...BUT BREAK
DOWN AS A STRONG WAVE CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS INTO ERN MONTANA WITH WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF
IT. TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS INTO SD WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA. PRECIP WILL
START AS RAIN...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL AS THERE ARE LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN GETTING
MEASURABLE PRECIP TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY. THE COLDER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...BUT UNSURE HOW MUCH AT THIS TIME.


&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

MODELS IN DECENT WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE CARVING OUT A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
NAM/GFS/ECMWF WITH BEST FORCING THOUGH THE DAY...WITH GFS TRENDING
MUCH DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY FOLLOWED SREF POPS/QPF.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIX THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER
TROF REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

AREA OF MVFR CIGS WITH FLURRIES WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...77
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7





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