Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 172340
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
540 PM MDT THU JUL 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT THU JUL 17 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORT WAVE RIDGE CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN SOME FAIR WX CU ACROSS OUR CWFA. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH TROF DEEPENING
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES.

MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL SMOKE CONTINUING TO CROSS THE REGION. ON FRIDAY...A STRONG
SHORT WAVE TROF WILL CROSS SRN ALTA/SASK WITH SFC TROF PUSHING
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. COULD BE A TSTM OR TWO ASSOCD WITH THE SFC
TROF DURING THE AFTN GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000J/KG...BUT
REALLY NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO EXPECT MOST AREAS TO
REMAIN DRY. IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER WITH THERMAL RIDGE AND
LO LVL SW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN WEAK ENERGY IN WLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK THETA-E
ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT THU JUL 17 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS MORE TOWARD SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL
WAVES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SAT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL CANADA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER ISOLD STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MOST DAYS WITH
MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. TEMPS IN THE 90S ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED...WITH SOME LOCATIONS ON THE PLAINS REACHING
TRIPLE DIGITS SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT THU JUL 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE SD PLAINS WHERE
BL DECOUPLING OCCURS /INCLUDING KRAP/...AS A NOCTURNAL LLJ DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT MID LEVEL IMPULSE ENTERING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A SFC TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING ISOLATED TS OVER THE SD PLAINS...ESP
NW SD. HOWEVER...PROBS/COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LOW.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JC






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