Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 251125
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
525 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE UPPER TROF COVERING THE WRN/CNTRL
CONUS...WITH UPPER LOW OVER NRN CO. AT THE SFC...BROAD TROF COVERS
THE CNTRL CONUS WITH CONTINUED E/NE BL FLOW OVER THE CWFA. SHRA
EARLY THIS MRNG COVER NWRN SD...AS WELL AS FAR SWRN/SCTNRL SD.

TODAY...UPPER LOW WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EWD INTO CNTRL NEB BY LATE
AFTN. BEST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL COVER NEB AND
EXTEND INTO SWRN/SCNTRL SD. FURTHER NORTH...DEFORMATION ZONE SHRA
WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SWWD FROM NWRN SD INTO NERN WY. ABUNDANT
LOW CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH OVERALL TSTM THREAT ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY
AND WILL GO WITH MAINLY ISOLD TSRA WORDING. QPF AMOUNTS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY AS HIGH AS SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH AFTN
CONVERGENCE IN THE CNTRL/SRN BLKHLS COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER AMOUNTS
IN THAT AREA. WILL KEEP FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR WCNTRL AND SWRN SD
GIVEN CREEKS/STREAMS RUNNING VERY HIGH OR IN SOME CASES OVER FLOOD
STAGE. WILL CANCEL FLOOD WATCH FOR NERN WY GIVEN LESS RAINFALL IN
THAT AREA ON SUNDAY AND NO KNOWN REPORTS OF FLOODING.

TONIGHT...PCPN SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT FOR MOST AREAS
AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
DAKOTAS.

TUESDAY...SFC HIGH WILL COVER CNTRL/ERN SD WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGE
OVER THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW IN NERN WY AND THE BLKHLS COULD
LEAD TO AFTN CONVECTION IN THOSE AREAS WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEAR
1000J/KG...BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE SD PLAINS.
TEMPS SHOULD BE 5-10F WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEAKENS AS
IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY...WITH RESIDUAL ENERGY
THEN CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA.  THEN BROAD
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHRA WITH ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED TODAY BUT QPF AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE NEARLY AS HIGH AS SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH FLOOD WATCH FOR
MUCH OF WCNTRL AND SWRN SD GIVEN CREEKS/STREAMS RUNNING VERY HIGH
OR IN SOME CASES OVER FLOOD STAGE. WILL CANCEL FLOOD WATCH FOR
NERN WY GIVEN LESS RAINFALL IN THAT AREA ON SUNDAY AND NO KNOWN
REPORTS OF FLOODING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ024>031-041-042-
     072>074.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15
HYDROLOGY...JOHNSON


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