000
FXUS63 KUNR 202015
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
215 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool conditions continue through tonight, warmer weather returns
  for most of next week.

- Active pattern brings multiple chances for precipitation and
  gusty winds next week


&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday)
Issued at 147 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024


Current Water Vapor and upper air models show upper trough in
eastern Canada into the Great Lakes region, mild upper ridge over
the pacific northwest, with northwest flow over our region. At
the lower levels, surface high sits over the forecast area, a weak
mid- level disturbance situated over eastern WY into the central
Black Hills. Weak forcing has helped generate some radar returns
over the southern Black Hills into far southwestern SD this
afternoon. Added some slight PoPs into said area, though no
accumulations are expected. Temperatures currently sit in the
upper 30s to mid 40s across the area. Winds are generally light
out of the northwest, however some of the western SD plains are
seeing breezy conditions, with gusts up to 25 mph.

Surface high pressure will continue our cool and clear conditions
for tonight, with lows dipping into the mid 20s overnight. Low
level flow turns westerly on Sunday, supporting stronger WAA and a
return to above normal temperatures. Highs Sunday are expected in
the 60s for most areas, while the Black Hills will see mid 50s.
Pressure falls behind the high will support breezy winds for
Sunday afternoon with gusts 25 to 35 mph likely. Another
disturbance pushes through the forecast area Sunday night into
Monday morning. While lacking moisture to bring any precipitation,
we can expect strong gusty winds Monday morning behind associated
frontal boundary.

Unsettled northwest flow continues through much of next week. CAMs
hint at potential light precipitation in the Mon-Wed range,
however very limited coverage and lack of available moisture. A
better chance for meaningful precipitation comes the latter half
of next week, as a stronger wave moves up from the four corners
region into the northern/central plains.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Sunday)
Issued At 1120 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye
AVIATION...Helgeson