Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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463 FXUS63 KUNR 040836 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 236 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer and windy this weekend - Strong Storm lifts into Northern Plains Monday/Tuesday; Thunderstorms late Sunday/Monday, high winds Tuesday/Wednesday, some snow for the Black Hills Tuesday/Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Friday) Issued at 230 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024 Current surface map places high across eastern Montana into the western Dakotas. Skies are mostly clear with temperatures in the 20s to mid 30s. Surface high slides into the eastern Dakotas this afternoon with southerly winds increasing across northeastern Wyoming and western South Dakota. Highs mainly in the 60s today. Upper low tracks through the Great Basin Sunday and swings through western South Dakota Monday before stalling out along the northern Montana/North Dakota border early Tuesday. Tight pressure gradient on Sunday will promote gusty south winds, with the strongest winds on the plains east of the Black Hills. A few thunderstorms possible over northeastern Wyoming and Black Hills Sunday afternoon with narrow axis of buoyancy. An uptick in thunderstorm activity is expected Sunday night/early Monday with strong QG forcing. Buoyancy/shear favorable for a few strong/severe storms along dryline surge Monday over south central South Dakota. Widespread rains with deformation zone will set up northwest of the forecast area on Tuesday, with shower activity mainly limited to parts of northeastern Wyoming into northwestern South Dakota. Strong westerly winds expected on Tuesday, with the strongest winds on the plains north of the Black Hills. As the low weakens and slowly drifts southeast Wednesday, showers will spread southward across the forecast area. Thermal profiles support some snow for the higher elevations of the Black Hills late Tuesday into Wednesday with minor accumulations possible. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Saturday Evening) Issued At 852 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...7 AVIATION...Wong