Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
698 FXUS63 KUNR 062328 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 528 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Deep low pressure system will bring numerous hazards through Tuesday. -Severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon over eastern areas. -Strong winds expected tonight northeast WY and most of western SD, with gusts to 70 mph possible. -Heavy wet snow expected tonight above 6000 ft in the northern Black Hills. -Heavy rain expected in portions of NE WY. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday) Issued at 207 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024 Vigorous low pressure system deepening and closing off across the region this afternoon. The dry trough has already shifted across most of the area with lingering thunderstorms and showers along the trough from far NW SD through scentral SD. Severe threat will wane this evening as the sfc trough shifts east. The main show will then become strong winds across most of the region. LLJ core on the south side of the sfc low will strengthen and mix down to the sfc overnight tonight with winds becoming quite strong. Expecting sustained winds of 30 to 45 mph with gusts in excess of 70 mph possible. In addition, terrain effects around the BH will accentuate the flow with locally strong wind gusts possible, esp along the northern foothills. Winds will be the strongest overnight, across the west, with high winds slowly diminishing through Tues, but remaining at warning or adv levels for most of the day. The other main impact will be heavy deformation rains across far NE WY into the northern Black Hills where 1-2 inches of rain will possible through tonight. Temps will drop across the higher elevations of the BH with rain changing to snow and becoming quite heavy overnight. Snow amounts around foot are possible above 6000 ft in the northern Black Hills, impacting portions of highway 85 around the state line. Strong saturated deep layer flow, extending into the dgz will help accentuate snowfall rates overnight. Rain (and high elevation snow) will taper off Tues morning with some lingering showers across the NW half, mainly dry across the far south. Strong winds will slowly diminish through the day, but remain breezy through Wed as the sfc low pivots over the region. The next round of rain will push into the region Tue night-Thur as the upper low moves slowly southeast across the region. This will bring more scattered activity with more instability type showers. There will also be some snow once again in the higher elevations of the Black Hills, mainly Tue night. Things will begin to dry out and warm back up this weekend with semi-unsettled NW flow possibly supporting isolated showers/storms at times. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Tuesday Evening) Issued At 527 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024 Showers and storms will continue across NE WY, the Black Hills, and western SD this evening into the overnight hours. Winds will continue to shift west-northwest this evening with gusts 35-50 knots persisting into Tuesday afternoon. MVFR/IFR conditions are likely, especially in low clouds and heavier showers across NE WY and the Black Hills. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for SDZ001-002-012-013- 026-027-030-031-041-042-073>076-078. High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Tuesday for SDZ001-012-013-025- 072-073-078. Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ Tuesday for SDZ014-032- 043-044-046-047-049-077. High Wind Warning until noon MDT Tuesday for SDZ024-026>031-041- 042-074>076. Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT Tuesday for SDZ024. WY...High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Tuesday for WYZ060. High Wind Warning until noon MDT Tuesday for WYZ054>059. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT Tuesday for WYZ057. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC AVIATION...SE