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000
FXUS65 KVEF 132352 CCA
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
100 PM PDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A weather system moving through the region will bring
widespread gusty winds today followed by cooler temperatures and
some light shower activity Sunday. Improving conditions are
expected Monday as the weather system departs to the area....with
temperatures returning to well above normal values by Wednesday
onward.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Monday night.

Low pressure off the coast of Northern California is slowly
developing south and east this afternoon, and will begin to push
inland across the Great Basin and Mojave Desert tomorrow. Ahead of
this storm system, tightening pressure gradients will encourage
another day of gusty south winds, with sporadic gusts of 40-50 mph
across much of the region. Strongest winds remain favored across
our far western zones, namely the Owens Valley and Esmeralda
County, where a few gusts of 50-60 mph will be possible.

Meanwhile, with heights beginning to fall in response to the
approaching low pressure system - temperatures today are running 5
to 10 degrees cooler than this point yesterday. Even cooler
temperatures are expected Sunday as the trough axis moves
overhead, with afternoon highs bottoming out 5 to 10 degrees
cooler than the calendar day average. In addition to the cooler
temperatures, some light instability driven shower activity is
likely as the cold pool aloft moves overhead. These showers will
tend to favor the higher terrain of our western and northern zones
but may result in some locally gusty winds and a stray lightning
strike or two, as they traverse some of the warmer lower desert
elevations.


Any shower activity will diminish quickly with the loss of daytime
heating Sunday night. The trough axis will shift east by Monday
with temperatures returning to near normal values and lingering
northwesterly breezes.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday.

A dominant ridge pattern will take hold over the long term period,
with temperatures climbing well above normal. There is some variance
among model guidance in how strong the ridge building in will be,
particularly for Wednesday onward, with the 25th and 75th high
temperature percentiles varying by 6 to 8 degrees, but regardless of
which scenario plays out, above normal temperatures will prevail.
This will translate to temperatures in the 80s in Las Vegas to
potentially approaching 90, with temperatures in the 90s to near 100
in the lower elevations of the Colorado River Valley and around
Death Valley.


Meanwhile, aside from passing high clouds, skies should be mostly
clear through the long term period as the jet stream lifts well to
our north. With temperatures climbing and a deepening mixed layer
expected, daily breezes can be expected, particularly in the
afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Southeast winds will turn more to the
south through the afternoon with gusts of 35kts still expected into
the evening (65-70% probability).  Winds will turn southwest between
03Z and 05Z.  Speeds will decrease overnight, but occasional gusts
to 25kts are still expected at times. Southerly winds return Sunday
with gusts to 25kts continuing.  No significant cloud cover is
forecast through tonight.  On Sunday, FEW to SCT clouds, AOA 10kft
AGL is expected by afternoon, and a few showers in the vicinity of
the field will be possible by 00Z Monday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Gusty southerly winds will continue area-wide through
this evening, with the strongest winds expected in the Owens Valley
including KBIH, where gusts over 40kts are possible.   Winds will
diminish some overnight, but most regional TAF sites will still
experience winds of at least 15kts into Sunday morning.  Clouds will
increase across the Sierra and the Owens Valley later this
afternoon, and a few showers will be possible near KBIH this
evening.  A few isolated showers are also possible at KBIH and KDAG
tomorrow afternoon, while areas farther east will not see shower
chances until Sunday evening.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Planz

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