Alert Administrative Message
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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NOUS75 KTFX 212102
ADMTFX

ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
151 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

TO ALL WFOS SURROUNDING WFO TFX
FM WFO TFX

WFO TFX HAS ISSUED A HEADS-UP EMAIL TO OUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
COMMUNITY AND OTHER PARTNERS.

EMAIL TOPIC...NWS GREAT FALLS - UPDATE TO FORECAST WEATHER FOR THIS WEEK

...REASONING IN EMAIL...


THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE RATHER QUICKLY OVER MONTANA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL, ESPECIALLY IN THE STANFORD AND LEWISTOWN
AREAS. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR THE STRONGER STORMS TO OCCUR IS FROM
3 PM TUE UNTIL 9 PM TUE.

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, CHANGING
THE RAIN TO SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVEL, WHILE 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
RIDGE TOPS.

IN TERMS OF FLOODING ISSUES, BASED ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST, THERE IS THE THREAT OF FLOODING ACROSS GALLATIN COUNTY,
INCLUDING THE EAST GALLATIN RIVER. OTHER RIVERS AND CREEKS THAT FLOW
OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA
COULD SEE RIVER RISES, BUT THE THREAT FOR FLOODING WITH THIS EVENT
HAS DIMINISHED A BIT BASED ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION
FORECAST.

ADDITIONALLY, STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE:
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY, WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN TERMS OF FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR
GALLATIN COUNTY AND FOR HIGH WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
MT.

IMPACTS: NUMEROUS IMPACTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS, RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS...DO NOT HESITATE TO CALL OR
CHAT US.



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