Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 110600
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
100 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MCHENRY AND PIERCE
COUNTIES...ALONG A SOUTHERLY MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. LATEST HIGH
RES MODELS CONTINUE TO FIRE UP CONVECTION THROUGH 12Z AS THIS
BOUNDARY CONTINUES SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. KEPT POPS
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

MODIFIED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HR MODEL OUTPUT AND BASED ON
LATEST RADAR. OTHER UPDATES WERE INSIGNIFICANT.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND
SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THINK THE SEVERE THREAT IS OVER FOR NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...REMOVED SEVERE WORDING FROM THE GRIDS/ZONES.
ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
MOOSOMIN TO ESTEVAN SASKATCHEWAN...SOUTHWEST INTO CROSBY AND
WILLISTON. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING NEAR
MOOSOMIN...WITH CELLS BUBBLING UP NEAR ESTEVAN. WITH AMPLE
INSTABILITY IN PLACE (SBCAPE AROUND 1800 J/KG) OVER NORTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...IF THE CAP
MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...NORTH DAKOTA
COULD BE SPARED FROM SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL.

FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE SEVERE MENTION IN THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND ADJUST
ACCORDINGLY BASED ON HOW CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT EVOLVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW THAT
GENERATED SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING IS
NOW MOVING INTO MORE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. IT ITS WAKE SUBSIDENCE OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA IS RAPIDLY CLEARING CLOUDS. SOLAR HEATING AND THE H8
THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE MONTANA/SASKATCHEWAN COLD FRONT WILL
LEAVE A NARROW WINDOW FOR MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR DICKINSON AND WILLISTON SHOW AN ERODING CAP
WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION. THE CHALLENGE IS ALL
INGREDIENTS NOT LINING UP WELL AS THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL NOT
MATCH UP WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ESPECIALLY SOUTH. ALSO
H300 WINDS ALOFT WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT SO LACKING SOME
SUPPORT ALOFT. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN SASKATCHEWAN AND MOVE EAST. A FEW WILL
FORM/CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING. SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS GENERALLY NORTH OF LAKE
SAKAKAWEA. TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. THE
H300 JET MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WEST CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE NOSE OF THE H300 JET AND WHAT
SHOULD BE THE THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AFTER 06Z. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY SHOULD LEAVE THE
REGION DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WYOMING WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.

MEANWHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS HUDSON BAY WILL DROP SOUTH
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COOLER AIR...A
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH AROUND THE LOW WILL IMPACT THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR
MONDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM 850 TEMPS FOR MONDAY ARE +7C ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THAT TRANSLATES INTO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE
LATEST ALLBLEND HAS TRENDED HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 70S ON MONDAY TO
THE UPPER 60S ON THIS AFTERNOONS RUN. GIVEN THE 850 MB GFS/ECMWF/GEM
TEMP TRENDS...FULLY EXPECT THE ALLBLEND TO CONTINUE A DOWNWARD
TREND. RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
CENTRAL ND.

BENIGN WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT MIGRATING FROM CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING NORTH OF THE BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KJMS BETWEEN 08-12Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...NH





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