Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
377
FXUS63 KBIS 072107
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
307 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW NEAR THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT DIVING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
UPPER LOW STACKED OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WITH RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS LEADING TO FAST NORTHERLY FLOW OVER AND TO THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW AREAS
OF SNOW CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE OCCURRING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST THIS EVENING...THOUGH OVER REMAINING
PARTS OF THE AREA ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MIXING OF 50-60 KT GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL SLIGHT DIMINISHING OF THE WINDS BY
DAYBREAK. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

ON MONDAY...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA WITH FAST
NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...THOUGH STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME TROUBLE MIXING DOWN WITH NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MONDAY EVENING THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
WINDS THIS WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN BECOMES
SEMI-PERMANENT ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND DEFINES THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL LEAVE A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE
RELATIVELY FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL MEAN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. ONE CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...ANOTHER
CHANCE WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED
MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A RAIN SNOW
MIX WEST.

QUITE A BIT OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE THIS
WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S SOUTHWEST...20S AND 30S
CENTRAL...AND TEENS AND 20S EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY TO
THE 20S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
GRADUALLY IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LCL
IFR VIS REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN -SN/BLSN OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.