Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 181013
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
CENTERED/CIRCULATING NEAR WILLISTON THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE
SLIDING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...A VERY NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
PER LOCAL RADAR AND WEBCAMS EXTENDS FROM NEWTOWN...EAST INTO VELVA
AND SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MCCLUSKY. THE GFS40 850-700MB 1.5 PVU ATOP A
850MB FRONTOGENESIS AREA OVER WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DEVELOPED
A NARROW MESOSCALE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EARLIER THIS
MORNING. ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH CERTAINLY REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AS AN EARLIER REPORT OF A HALF INCH OCCURRED NEAR
HALLIDAY ON HIGHWAY 8. THE BAND WILL LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHERN
BORDER THROUGH 12Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH ISSUING NOWCASTS TO COVER
THIS FEATURE.

FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...REACHING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 18Z TODAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST BY 18Z. THE
LATEST RAP13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF
OMEGA/LIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER WITH RESPECT TO ICE
ACROSS KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
FROST POINT EXCEEDS THE TEMPERATURE...SOME SNOW PRODUCTION WILL
RESULT IN THE SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER EXPECT THOSE AMOUNTS TO REMAIN
LIGHT AS THE STRONGEST LIFT REMAINS WELL BELOW THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT AREA. AMOUNTS OF A TENTH
OR TWO OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES CAN BE
ANTICIPATED UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAKER LIFT. ALL ACTIVITY WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRANSITORY MID LEVEL RIDGE
CROSSING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRY FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST. HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES DEPICT WARMING ALOFT AT TIMES THAT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
FREEZING MARK - BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW FREEZING - WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN - DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE. CLOUDS
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE VARIABLE...WITH ICE CRYSTALS FALLING
FROM MID CLOUDS AT TIMES AND NO MID CLOUDS AT TIMES. THIS SUGGESTS A
MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR LIGHT SNOW. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE WAVE. LOOKING AT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS
SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND EXPAND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE
SUNDAY...THEN IT DEEPENS/STRENGTHENS AS IT REACHES MINNESOTA/IOWA ON
MONDAY...AND TO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE MIXED WITH
RAIN OR SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE LARGE
TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(CHRISTMAS EVE) LOOK TO BE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. HIGHS
CHRISTMAS DAY APPEAR TO BE FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR STRATUS CONTINUES AT KDIK WITH MVFR STRATUS AT KISN AND KBIS.
VFR CIGS AT KMOT WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS BY 12Z AND EVENTUALLY AT
KJMS BY 15Z TODAY. THE LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER AT ALL
AERODROMES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME LIFTING AT
KDIK LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AT
KDIK THROUGH 06 UTC. EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
TERMINALS TODAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS/TWH








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