Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 231025
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
324 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH
OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS FLOW ALONG WITH A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL
HELP PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST SLOPES OF
MOUNTAINS. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO FILTER IN OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN A WARMUP...WITH HIGHS BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ON THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO MID WEEK AS A
SERIES OF STRONG TROUGHS RIDE OVER A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE FIRST TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BRINGING STRONG MID LEVELS WINDS ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY AND ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WILL
PRODUCE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WIND ADV FOR EAST SLOPE
ZONES LOOKS REASONABLE. A FEW OF THE NOTORIOUS SITES ALONG IN PASSES
AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS HAVE ALREADY REPORTED GUSTS
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. MODELS SHOW STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS
OCCURRING THIS MORNING AND THEN DECREASING SOME THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW
WILL ALSO DRAG REMNANTS OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT TO
BEGIN A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOL WEATHER MONDAY/TUESDAY.

EXPECT TEMPS MONDAY TO COOL ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES FROM TODAY. ANOTHER
WEAK TROUGH WILL SLIP THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH YET ANOTHER
SHOT OF COOL AIR...TO DROP TUESDAY`S TEMPS ABOUT ANOTHER 3-5 DEGREES
FROM MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST. BY WEDNESDAY THE HIGH WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA AND BEGIN TO RELAX WIND SPEEDS ALOFT OVER THE
CWA. FURTHER NORTH STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND HELP
DEVELOP LEE SIDE TROUGHING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO BEGIN TURNING MORE SOUTHWEST AND
BEGIN WARMUP. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD WARM BACK TO JUST BELOW
NORMAL. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THANKSGIVING AND ON INTO THE
WEEKEND. WARMUP WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL
THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND. UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AS IT FINALLY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO CONTINUE WARM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/12Z-24/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH P6SM FEW-SCT250. STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
00Z. IN GENERAL EXPECT GUSTS 25-35 KTS 16Z THROUGH 00Z WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AND BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE AFTER 06Z. AT KELP
AN AWW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WINDS WILL REACH OR EXCEED CRITERIA
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
WHILE ALL AREAS WILL BE AFFECTED BY INCREASED WIND SPEEDS IT APPEARS
THAT THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS AREAS JUST EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST WINDS. MOISTURE IS LIMITED ACROSS OUR
REGION THEREFORE NO WETTING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. MINIMUM RH
VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...JUST HIGH
ENOUGH TO PREVENT RED FLAG CRITERIA. NONE THE LESS THIS SITUATION
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATER TODAY ALLOWING WINDS TO
SUBSIDE WHILE BRINGING DRIER AND COLDER AIR TO THE AREA. THIS WILL
LOWER MIN RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR MONDAY AND DROP TEMPS AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF COLD DRY AIR
WILL FOLLOW ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY. LOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE MODERATING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL BY
THANKSGIVING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 65  35  56  30  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           67  32  54  27  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              63  29  55  26  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              63  29  50  25  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              43  19  37  14  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   62  29  52  26  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             55  30  49  24  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  64  27  55  25  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               63  26  55  22  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      65  35  54  29  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               66  31  55  26  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            68  34  58  28  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              60  35  49  29  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  68  31  56  26  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            64  31  55  27  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          65  33  52  29  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           65  21  53  23  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   66  24  54  26  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                65  31  56  28  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               64  30  52  27  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 50  24  45  17  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               49  22  43  17  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                52  24  44  19  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 54  22  47  21  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               61  32  51  27  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               63  25  54  22  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            56  22  48  21  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  58  28  51  23  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   61  18  54  19  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              58  17  52  15  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 59  31  50  27  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  64  28  57  24  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 66  27  57  23  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          67  29  59  25  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              66  31  58  27  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NMZ413>416.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ419.

&&

$$

HEFNER/LANEY







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