Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 222051
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
251 PM MDT Mon May 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The low level dry line dividing dry air to the west and more moist
air to east is  presently located in central Hudspeth county
northeastward into eastern Otero county. This will give areas in
mainly eastern Hudspeth and Otero county a slight risk for a
shower or thunderstorm tonight possibly into Tuesday morning.
Another weak backdoor cool front from the northeast will push into
the Borderland late tonight into Tuesday and result mainly in
just a windshift to the east and drop temperatures a tad  on
Tuesday. This front should not make it west of the Rio Grande and
even start to erode eastward later Tuesday afternoon with
temperatures climbing back into the 90s by Wednesday into the
rest of the week. As an upper air trough moves eastward from the
Pacific into the Central Rockies, the Borderland will experience
increasing dry windy conditions on Thursday and Friday. At this
time it appears the Memorial Day weekend we will see a
continuation of our warm temperatures with just a slight chance
for some rain later Monday.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Dry line as of 21z Sierra Blanca Tx to arn Dunken NMex with
Sim/Radar showing cells starting to pop on this line. SPC as
marginal svr risk just touching the eastern portion of our CWA.
East of our CWA there is a large hail threat but the farther west
you go into Hudspeth and Otero into the drier low level air the
risk will be for strong outflow winds of 50 to 60 mph. These
outflows may surge into our central CWA tonight as they did last
night. Also a vort/max disturbance in the WNW flow aloft is
setting off some SHRA-/-TSRA in norther Sierra county as it moves
southeastward. Don`t expect too much from this in terms of precip
but due to the much drier air and DCAPES around 1000-1300 J/KG,
strong outflow winds may surge down the Tularosa Basin and into
Otero county. To demonstrate the moisture contrast, SRR had a 28
Td at 21z while ROW was 53. Will keep token POPS Sierra/Otero to
06z and minimal pops in the SACs into early Tuesday morning.

And just for fund there is another minor surge of cooler air
(weak backdoor cool front) coming in from the Great Plains which
should push into the Sacs tonight and into el Paso Tuesday
morning. This is basically dry and should be only a wind shift to
the east with a little breezy conditions at times west slopes
until about midday Tuesday. Temps may drop less than 5 deg F
Tuesday. This front should no push west any father than the Rio
Grande and even start to erode by Tuesday afternoon.

By Wednesday a ridge of high pressure aloft will move eastward
over New Mexico and start to rapidly flatten ahead of some upper
air disturbances to the west. This ridge in combination with the
increasing dry adiabatic warming as the dry westerly surface winds
increase, will result in raising our temperature into the mid 90s
startling Wednesday into the rest of the week. As these
disturbances move eastward into the Central and Southern rockies,
surface winds will pick up into at least the windy category by
Thursday and Friday with some lowland locations experiencing
critical fire weather conditions.

And (pushing the speculative envelope out 192 hrs +) both the GFS
and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement of developing a fairly
large upper low (for this time of year) off the southern
California coast in combination with a surface Bermuda type
surface high pressure off the southeast U.S. which aligns the
pressure gradient east to west and may advect into the Borderland
some showers and thunderstorms late in the Memorial day Weekend
starting Monday night.



&&


.AVIATION...Valid 23/00Z-24/00Z...
P6SM SCT-BKN100-120 to start period with isolated 3-5SM -TSRA mainly
east of a KALM-KELP line through 03Z. After 03Z skies become SKC
with a back door front moving into far east toward 12Z bringing SCT-
BKN030-050 mainly from eastern slopes of Sacramento Mts to Dell City
to 18Z.  After 18Z all areas FEW-SCT120-150.  Winds WNW 10-20G30KTS
decreasing to 5-15KTS and becoming N to NE after 06Z. Winds will
start to shift around to the W at 10-20G30KTS again west of Rio
Grande after 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Breezy conditions expected each afternoon through Wednesday but
speeds should remain below critical criteria. Besides the next 24
hours when some eastern zones may keep humidities above 15 to 20
percent, expect them to fall into the 5 to 15 percent range through
the next week with some of the warmest temperatures of the year
coming Wednesday and Thursday.  Winds will be increasing for
Thursday and Friday to 20 to 30 mph or stronger which will combine
with the low RH`s and create likely critical conditions.  Winds
decrease for the holiday weekend but will still remain breezy. With
the strong winds however, vent rates will generally remain
excellent.


&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 65  88  61  94 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           61  79  56  90 /  10   0   0   0
Las Cruces              59  90  57  92 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              59  84  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              45  62  43  68 /  10   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   59  88  57  92 /  10   0   0   0
Silver City             55  85  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  58  92  56  93 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               59  92  58  93 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      65  87  62  92 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               58  78  53  92 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            64  87  60  95 /  10   0   0   0
Loma Linda              61  80  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  64  88  61  94 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            62  90  59  93 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          63  87  60  91 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           58  88  55  92 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   58  92  56  94 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                61  93  59  94 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               61  85  58  91 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 48  69  45  78 /  20  10   0   0
Mescalero               48  73  45  76 /  10   0   0   0
Timberon                49  71  46  76 /  10   0   0   0
Winston                 49  83  47  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               55  87  53  90 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               56  90  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            47  86  46  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  53  86  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   54  92  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              56  90  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 56  89  53  88 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  60  94  58  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 58  93  56  93 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          59  94  57  94 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              58  90  57  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

20/26 Novlan / Grzywacz


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