Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 120934
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
234 AM MST Tue Dec 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring seasonably warm dry weather across
southern New Mexico and west Texas today through early next week.
Temperatures will be a little above normal into Saturday before a
weak cold front causes slight cooling next Sunday and Monday.
Winds may also become breezy this coming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Period of benign mostly quiescent weather should continue into
early next week. Currently the regional circulation pattern is a
bit complex with an upper high located over the Great Basin while
a weak but large closed low was centered over northern Baja and a
deep cold trough covered the eastern half of the United States.
Cyclonic circulation around the closed low will initially advect
high level moisture in the CWA resulting in some cirrus cloud
clouds over mainly southwestern New Mexico today and Wednesday.
Otherwise west to northwest flow aloft will bring dry weather with
subsidence and solar heating supporting temperatures a little
above normal into Saturday.

Closed low should drift further to the southwest later this week
with the CWA remaining between high amplitude ridge west of the
divide and continued deep troughing over the east. This will only
sustain deep dry northwest flow into Saturday. Later Saturday
through Sunday a deep upper wave will plunge to the south across
the northern and central Rockies. This situation will induce
moderate lee cyclogenesis over northern New Mexico on Saturday
with strengthening low and mid level gradients. Thus possibly
breezy conditions may occur Saturday.

On Sunday an associated cold front will then move southward
through New Mexico and west Texas with breezy northeast winds
behind the boundary transporting cooler Canadian air into the CWA.
While the bulk of the colder air will stay to the east regional
temperatures may cool around 10 degrees resulting in near normal
daytime high highs Sunday and Monday. Continental trajectories
will preclude significant moisture inflow so expect dry weather to
persist into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...valid 12/12z-13/12z.
VFR conditions with areas of SCT-BKN250. Surface winds generally
from 5 to 15 kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will bring seasonably warm dry weather across
southern New Mexico and west Texas today through early next week.
Temperatures will be a little above normal into Saturday before a
weak cold front causes slight cooling next Sunday and Monday.
Winds will be around 5 to 15 mph through Friday possibly
increasing to around 15 to 25 mph Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 60  33  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           58  32  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              60  28  62  31 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              59  28  61  31 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              50  21  52  27 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   59  29  62  31 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             57  28  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  62  27  65  31 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               62  30  65  33 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      61  34  62  38 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               61  29  64  32 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            63  33  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              57  33  58  36 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  63  31  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            60  30  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          60  31  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           60  21  62  28 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   61  23  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                61  28  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               60  31  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 55  26  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               56  25  55  28 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                54  25  55  28 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 56  21  59  25 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               59  28  61  31 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               60  19  62  28 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            60  23  60  25 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  59  25  61  30 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   61  19  63  26 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              61  20  61  30 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 60  28  62  32 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  62  27  65  32 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 61  27  64  32 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          60  28  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              60  30  62  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash


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