Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 221000
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
300 AM MST Thu Feb 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
West to southwest winds will bring dry weather with warming
temperatures today and Friday. A low pressure system with a cold
front will bring windy conditions Friday and Saturday with cooler
below normal temperatures Saturday and Sunday. Westerly winds
will produce dry warmer weather  Monday and Tuesday. A strong
upper disturbance will result in breezy to windy conditions again
Tuesday and Wednesday with chances for lowland rain and mountain
snow showers Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rather active weather pattern will persist as mean deep troughing
will remain over the western United States well into next week and
possibly beyond. Currently a weak cold front associated with
modified Canadian air was located just west of the Rio Grande
with easterly winds behind it sustaining inflow of cooler air.
However deep primary trough axis will be moving into the Great
Basin today with downslope winds around inducing lee cyclone
formation to the northeast. This will cause regional surface
winds to become west to southwest later today through Friday
afternoon resulting in rising temperatures and dry weather.

deep upper trough axis will move across Arizona Friday and
progress across New Mexico Friday night. Concurrently lee cyclone
will deepen with trailing surface trough extending into eastern
New Mexico. Low and mid level gradients will strengthen with 50 to
60 kt 700 mb winds Friday evening. Thus windy conditions will
develop from west to east Friday afternoon and Friday night.
Expect wind speeds may attain advisory criteria much of the CWA
although limiting factor will be that stronger dynamics and
gradients will occur after dark which in turn will inhibit
mixing. In addition a pacific cold front will be moving across the
region before sunrise. Continental trajectories indicate
insufficient moisture will exist for significant rain or snow.

Upper trough and cold front will be east of the CWA by sunrise
with cold air advection lowering Saturday high temperatures to
around 10 degrees below normal. Gradients will remain strong
enough for windy conditions Saturday morning before diminishing in
the afternoon. Another weaker impulse aloft will then move
eastward across the southern Rockies on Sunday sustaining cool
breezy conditions.

Yet another upper low will be moving across California into
Arizona on Tuesday supporting lee cyclogenesis to the northeast.
Thus low and mid level gradients will again increase with the
southwesterly flow transporting warmer air back into the CWA. So
expect possible windy conditions to develop Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Very strong upward forcing
also expected via differential PVA fields plus passage of weak
Pacific front. These factors may support a few lowland rain
showers and mountain snows Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with skies SKC to SCT100. Surface winds around 5 to
15 kt through 18z increasing to around 15-25G30KT in the
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
West to southwest winds will bring dry weather with warming
temperatures today and Friday. A low pressure system with a cold
front will bring windy conditions Friday and Saturday with cooler
below normal temperatures Saturday and Sunday. Winds gusting
around 40 to 50 mph Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.
Westerly winds will produce dry warmer weather Monday and
Tuesday. A strong upper disturbance will result in breezy to windy
conditions again Tuesday and Wednesday with chances for lowland
rain and mountain snow showers Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 61  36  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           64  34  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              58  29  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              57  31  63  38 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              39  22  45  21 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   56  28  59  36 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             48  23  53  28 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  57  26  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               56  25  61  31 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      60  36  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               63  31  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            66  35  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              58  33  64  38 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  63  33  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            60  32  66  40 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          59  32  65  39 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           58  25  64  32 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   59  27  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                60  28  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               59  33  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 48  25  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               45  25  52  28 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                44  25  52  28 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 50  18  53  25 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               52  24  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               57  26  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            46  17  51  22 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  49  21  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   52  19  57  26 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              50  24  53  29 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 52  24  57  30 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  57  25  62  32 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 57  25  62  32 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          58  26  64  33 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              53  27  59  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash



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