Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 012038
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
238 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE IS GETTING A SHOVE TO THE WEST THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM TEXAS. HOWEVER ENOUGH OF IT REMAINS
TRAPPED WITHIN THE REGION TO KEEP SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AND ISOLATED
LOWLAND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE BORDERLAND EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE. EARLY
DAYTIME HOURS WILL BRING SUNSHINE RESULTING IN WARM AFTERNOONS AND
BUILDING CLOUDS. SOME CONTINUED DRYING THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD
RESULT IN A DIMINISHING OF STORM COVERAGE BY MID AND LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THIS MORNINGS EPZ SOUNDING
CONFIRM THE MODELS TAKE THAT OUR AREA WILL LOSE MOISTURE AS THE
TEXAS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST AND SHOVES THE DEEPER
MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WEST. OUR PW HAS DROPPED TO RIGHT AT AN
INCH WHILE CONVERSELY TUCSON`S HAD RISEN TO OVER 1.5 INCH. HOWEVER
THE BOUNDARY LEVEL CONTINUES WITH AN OPEN SOUTHEAST FETCH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THUS DEWPOINTS ARE STAYING UP INTO THE M50S AND
THUS THE LOW LEVELS STILL HAVE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY GIVEN
ENOUGH HEATING TO INITIATE LIFT. RESULTING FORECAST WILL BE TO
KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS IN FOR ALL ZONES...EVEN THE EAST
ZONES WHERE THE AIR IS THE DRIEST. EXPECT SOME STORMS TO PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS THANKS TO OUTFLOWS AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS
ALOFT.

SUN AND MONDAY A SHARP DISTURBANCE ALOFT TRACKS OFF THE WEST COAST
TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MODEL AGREEMENT IS TO BEND THE
DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME BACK TO THE EAST AND MORE OVER OUR
AREA. THIS PROBABLY WON`T HAVE A LARGE EFFECT ON OUR AREA...BUT IT
SHOULD RESULT IN PW`S CREEPING UP A BIT. MODELS SHOW US DROPPING
BELOW 1" TODAY...BUT BACK TO 1.25" BY MONDAY. THUS THE MODELS ALSO
UP POPS A BIT FOR SUN AND MON...WHICH LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE. ALL
ZONES WILL HAVE CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS MENTIONED FOR THESE
PERIODS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH
AND WEST AND ELONGATE EAST TO WEST. THIS PLACES OUR REGION UNDER A
WEAKLY CONTINENTAL NORTHERLY FLOW AND LOOKS TO DISPLACE THE MOIST
PLUME TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. THE RESULT IS A DROP IN PW/DEWPOINTS
AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM...AND THE GFS INDICATES 100 AFTERNOONS
TUE-THU FOR ELP. THUS FEWER STORMS...LIKELY LIMITED TO THE
MOUNTAINS...AND WARMER TEMPS WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS.

SATURDAY AND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND THE ECMWF RECENTERS THE UPPER
HIGH TO OUR EAST AND ALLOWS THE MONSOONAL MOIST PLUME TO FOCUS
OVER SE ARIZONA AND BEGIN TO CREEP EAST BACK INTO OUR AREA. THUS
SATURDAY ONWARD WE REVERSE THE DECLINING STORM TREND AND BUMP POPS
BACK UP...ESP WEST.

14-BIRD

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 02/00Z-03/00Z.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS
REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST FREQUENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE GILA WILDERNESS AND THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. IN GENERAL 06Z-18Z
FEW-SCT080-100 FEW-SCT250 WITH WINDS SSE 5-10KTS. OTHER WISE 18Z-06Z
SCT070 SCT100 SCT250 WINDS SW 7 G 15KTS. ISOLD VRBL WINDS 30G40KTS
BKN070CB BKN100 4SM TSRA TOPS300.

20-NOVLAN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...   HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVERHEAD WILL BRING
SEASONABLY HOT WEATHER TO TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THE AIR MASS
STILL REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY AROUND THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. AROUND
THE FIRST PART TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SHOULD
RETURN TO THE REGION WITH LESS SUPPRESSIVE HIGH PRESSURE AND THIS
SHOULD INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE MIN RH FILED
WILL RUN 20% TO 25% LOWLANDS AND 35% TO 45% ABOVE 7000 FT SATURDAY
AND ABOUT 3% TO 5% LOWER OVERALL SUNDAY.

20-NOVLAN

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 75  98  76  97 /  10   0  10  20
SIERRA BLANCA           69  96  72  95 /  20  10  10  30
LAS CRUCES              69  96  69  94 /  10   0  20  20
ALAMOGORDO              68  97  69  95 /  20  20  20  20
CLOUDCROFT              52  74  55  73 /  30  30  30  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   69  94  69  92 /  20  20  30  20
SILVER CITY             63  88  63  85 /  30  30  20  30
DEMING                  69  96  70  94 /  20  10  20  20
LORDSBURG               68  95  68  93 /  20  20  20  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  98  74  98 /  10   0  10  20
DELL CITY               71  98  72  97 /  10  10  10  20
FORT HANCOCK            73  99  73  98 /  20  10  10  30
LOMA LINDA              68  95  71  92 /  10   0  10  20
FABENS                  71  99  73  98 /  10   0  10  20
SANTA TERESA            70  97  72  96 /  10   0  20  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          70  97  71  94 /  10   0  20  20
JORNADA RANGE           67  96  68  94 /  10   0  20  20
HATCH                   67  97  68  95 /  20  10  20  10
COLUMBUS                69  96  71  93 /  20  10  20  20
OROGRANDE               70  97  72  96 /  10   0  10  20
MAYHILL                 59  83  59  82 /  30  30  20  40
MESCALERO               56  84  58  82 /  30  30  30  40
TIMBERON                58  83  60  82 /  30  30  20  40
WINSTON                 59  84  60  83 /  40  40  30  40
HILLSBORO               65  94  65  91 /  20  30  30  30
SPACEPORT               67  95  69  93 /  20  10  20  10
LAKE ROBERTS            58  87  58  85 /  40  40  30  40
HURLEY                  64  91  64  88 /  20  30  20  20
CLIFF                   65  93  64  91 /  30  30  30  20
MULE CREEK              60  93  61  90 /  30  30  30  20
FAYWOOD                 64  92  65  89 /  20  40  20  20
ANIMAS                  67  94  68  92 /  20  20  20  30
HACHITA                 67  94  69  93 /  20  20  20  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          66  92  66  89 /  20  20  30  40
CLOVERDALE              64  90  65  87 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/14/99


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