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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 170937
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
337 AM MDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Fall high pressure means warmer and dry conditions with light
winds today across the region. The next Pacific trough begins to
approach Wednesday with some more clouds arriving and even slight
chances for some showers along the southern Border. Thursday the
system arrives and delivers a bit more moisture with somewhat
better rain and storm chances. Friday the trough exits with dry
conditions returning as west winds become breezy. The weekend
ahead looks dry and seasonal. A cold front pushes in for Sunday
for cooler conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strong high pressure ridge over the Southwestern U.S. will
continue to call the shots for our Borderland weather today,
resulting in warmer and continued dry weather with generally light
winds. This feature will dampen and flatten Wednesday to a pure
zonal flow pattern under the force of a developing Pacific
trough. Moisture lurks to the south and will slowly creep north as
the first impulse in the westerly flow tracks over WED afternoon.
The moisture will be marginal, but models do suggest some minor
QPF over the S and E zones for the PM hours WED. We`ve introduces
slight chance for ra/ts in the forecast for the SE areas...then
spread them N and W overnight.

Thursday, energy from the next Pac trough slides over with a
slight gain in moisture and dynamics. Thus we`ve gone with area
wide slight chance to chance ra/ts in the forecast for THU through
early FRI...with POPs being curtailed W to E late in this period.
Models show PWs 3/4 to 1" and dewpoints rising to the 50 degree
mark. There is some instability with LIs in the -1 to -3 range and
MUCAPE in the 600-1200 J/kg range.

Friday stronger westerly winds sweep across the forecast area as
the main trough tracks east across the Rockies well to our north.
Jet aloft, tighter mid-level gradients, and a lee surface trough
will result in a breezy afternoon which will shove the moisture
east out of the region and end pcpn chances.

The passing trough looks to sharpen and amplify Saturday as it
drops over the Southern Plains. Models have been sketchy on
consistency with this, but currently they seem to be settling
firmly on it staying well east and not impacting our weather with
any pcpn. Thus continued dry through the weekend. Sat will see
continued W to NW winds, somewhat breezy, and slightly warm
temperatures.

Sunday, a "side-door" (one that pushes in from the north) pushes
in to deliver a dry and cool continental airmass. Cooling will be
only moderate at about 5-8 degrees.

Looking into the next week, we start it with a dominant high
pressure pattern redeveloping over the Southwestern U.S. to keep
the region dry and quickly warm temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 17/12Z-18/12Z...
VFR conds thru the period with only a few high clouds over the
TAF sites. No CIGS. VSBY unrestricted. WNDS SE to S between 5 to
10 mph.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Broad high pressure aloft has formed over the region. This will
keep the region dry again today with warming temperatures through
the week. Light winds and low inversions will keep the ventillation
poor to fair through mid week. Wednesday onward winds turn west
and increase slightly as a Pacific trough approaches. This will
aide in somewhat deeper and stronger mixing with better
ventilation midweek and beyond. Wednesday, Thursday, and early
Friday this Pacific system will approach and pass with moderate
moisture in tow. Rain chances will be mostly minor, with
isolated showers and a few storms possible these days. Westerly
winds will pick up Friday and Saturday behind the exiting trough.
The next cold front will push in from the north and east Saturday
night. Cooler next Sunday, but the weather looks to remain dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 83  57  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           82  54  86  59 /   0   0  10  10
Las Cruces              81  52  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              80  50  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              63  38  64  47 /   0   0   0  10
Truth or Consequences   82  53  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             77  47  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  82  51  86  54 /   0   0   0  10
Lordsburg               82  54  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      82  57  85  62 /   0   0   0  10
Dell City               84  47  88  57 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Hancock            86  57  89  61 /   0   0  10  10
Loma Linda              79  53  82  59 /   0   0   0  10
Fabens                  85  54  88  59 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Teresa            81  55  85  60 /   0   0   0  10
White Sands HQ          81  52  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           80  47  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   83  52  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                82  52  86  57 /   0   0   0  10
Orogrande               80  52  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 73  40  75  48 /   0   0   0  10
Mescalero               72  42  73  49 /   0   0   0  10
Timberon                70  37  72  50 /   0   0   0  10
Winston                 78  37  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               80  49  82  53 /   0   0   0  10
Spaceport               82  43  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            78  37  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  78  45  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   82  42  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              81  43  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 79  48  82  53 /   0   0   0  10
Animas                  83  53  86  56 /   0   0   0  10
Hachita                 82  52  86  55 /   0   0   0  10
Antelope Wells          83  52  87  55 /   0   0   0  10
Cloverdale              82  54  84  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

14-Bird



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