Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 212125
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
325 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY EAST
OF THE DIVIDE THIS EVENING...WITH WEATHER ALREADY BEGINNING TO
SETTLE DOWN TOWARDS THE ARIZONA BORDER. WEDNESDAY WILL BE LAST
DAY WITH ANY ACTIVE WEATHER...AS THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS A FEW STORMS LATER IN THE MORNING. TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY...ALLOWING WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER TO RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ATTEMPTS AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD ACTIVE WEATHER...ARE
BEING SUPPRESSED AT THIS TIME...AS LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS GROWTH OF ONLY LOW TOPPED GLACIATED CUMULUS OVER
THE HIGH COUNTRY.  LOOKING CLOSER...A PAIR OF VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCES IS EVIDENT IN THE CU FIELD...TRANSLATING EASTWARD
OVER CENTRAL NM. THESE WERE TOO SMALL FOR IDENTIFICATION BY EVEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS DOWN TO 12 KM RESOLUTION. AT 18Z...ONE WAS OVER
EASTERN OTERO AND THE OTHER WAS OVER EASTERN GRANT COUNTY. THESE
ARE ORIENTED N-S. VISIBLE EFFECTS OF SUBSIDENCE ARE EVIDENT BEHIND
EACH FEATURE...ACTING TO SUPPRESS ANY STRONG CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHERN NM AT THIS TIME. IN FACT...FOR THE SOUTHWEST NM LOWLANDS
...A BROAD FIELD OF SMALL CUMULUS IS THE BEST THE ATMOSPHERE CAN
MUSTER AT THIS TIME.

FOR TONIGHTS FORECAST HAVE BACKED DOWN ON POPS ACCORDINGLY...FOR
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS MOST AREAS BY MORNING. ISOLATED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED FOR EASTERN EL PASO COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE MODEL
CONSENSUS HOLDS ONTO SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR HUDSPETH COUNTY OVERNIGHT.

ONE MORE DAY WITH CONVECTION IS STILL ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROCESS OF PHASING WITH WHATS LEFT OF THE
UPPER LOW...ACTS TO SLOW ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION OVER IS A LITTLE.
THIS WILL LEAVE ITS AXIS OVER US THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. MARGINAL LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...AND LIFTED
INDICES TO -2 WITH MORNING SUNSHINE...SUPPORTS AT MOST ISOLATED
STORMS BY MID DAY.

WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THAT TIME THE HIGH MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO RETURN. 12Z GFS AND
EC SOLUTIONS CARRY A VERY WEAK TROUGH THE FLOW SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. AS THIS IS FORECAST TO BE A FAST MOVER...HAVE
KEPT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED FOR
THIS.

MODELS BRING A LARGER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES NEXT
MONDAY...WITH AT LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR LATER THIS
WEEKEND. ITS FORECAST TRACK AT THIS TIME WELL TO OUR NORTH...PRECLUDE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR US FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 52  76  52  79  53 /  30  20   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           49  73  49  76  49 /  40  30  10   0   0
LAS CRUCES              49  72  49  77  48 /  30  20   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              48  72  47  77  48 /  30  20  10   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              36  59  35  62  37 /  40  30  10   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   50  72  50  76  50 /  20  20   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             45  69  46  71  47 /  20  10   0   0   0
DEMING                  48  73  46  79  46 /  20  10   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               49  75  48  79  47 /  20   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      53  75  52  79  54 /  30  20   0   0   0
DELL CITY               45  74  43  76  43 /  40  30  10   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            52  78  52  80  52 /  30  20  10   0   0
LOMA LINDA              48  69  50  73  51 /  30  20  10   0   0
FABENS                  49  78  48  80  50 /  30  20  10   0   0
SANTA TERESA            49  73  48  78  51 /  30  20   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          52  71  52  76  52 /  30  20   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           42  71  42  77  42 /  30  20   0   0   0
HATCH                   45  71  46  78  45 /  20  20   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                52  74  50  79  51 /  20  10   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               51  73  51  76  50 /  30  20  10   0   0
MAYHILL                 41  65  42  68  42 /  40  30  10   0   0
MESCALERO               37  64  36  68  39 /  40  30  10   0   0
TIMBERON                38  64  38  68  40 /  40  30  10   0   0
WINSTON                 42  68  42  73  43 /  20  20   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               47  69  47  73  47 /  20  20   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               44  71  43  77  46 /  20  20   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            42  69  42  74  43 /  20  20   0   0   0
HURLEY                  47  71  47  73  47 /  20  10   0   0   0
CLIFF                   43  73  42  77  39 /  20   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              37  72  36  74  36 /  20   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 47  70  47  73  49 /  20  10   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  48  77  48  81  48 /  20   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 46  75  47  80  46 /  20   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          46  77  45  82  46 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              47  76  47  80  48 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

22/26
TRIPOLI/GRZYWACZ




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