Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 042006
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
206 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING POSSIBLE. DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THERE CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE THICK CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED
DAY TIME HEATING AND IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. EVEN THROUGH A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS
FLOWING OVER THE REGION...WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ARE KEEPING LAPSE RATES WEAK...RESULTING IN
FEWER STORMS DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF MOISTURE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST
AND NORTH OF LAS CRUCES...DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE. AREAS TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH OF LAS CRUCES ARE A BIT MORE STABLE AND HAVE A BIT
LESS MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN FEWER SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A STILL A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS
BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP HEAVIER RAINFALL...BUT MOST
STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAKER. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED BUT
A FEW AREAS OF MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES MAY OCCUR
NEAR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GILA REGION
TONIGHT.

DURING THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...THE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BECOME
MORE DIFFUSE AND WEAKER AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA PULLS IT APART AT ITS NORTHERN END. ALSO...HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA...HELPING TO
SUPPRESS FURTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND HEATING AROUND TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE FOR THE MOST PART LIGHT AND
SPOTTY WITH JUST A FEW AREAS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. MOUNTAIN ZONES
WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. DAY TIME
TEMPERATURES DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED STORMS OVER
THE REGION. MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL SEE A MORE SCATTERED DISTRIBUTION
OF STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS DO PROJECT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE NEXT
FRIDAY. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL
HELP KEEP A CHANCE OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 05/00Z-06/00Z.
P6SM SCT-BKN070-090 BKN-OVC150-200 THRU PD. SCT 6SM SHRA BKN040-060
WITH ISOLD TS WEST OF RIO GRANDE AND AREA MTNS...ISOLD EAST OF RIVER.
WINDS GENERALLY W TO NW AOB 12KTS...BUT STRONGER WITH GUSTS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE AND AREA MOUNTAINS...BUT AREAS EAST WILL STILL SEE ISOLATED
COVERAGE. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SATURDAY. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR THE
LOWLANDS AND IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  93  72  94 /  20  20  30  20
SIERRA BLANCA           67  92  69  93 /  20  20  30  30
LAS CRUCES              65  89  67  90 /  20  20  30  20
ALAMOGORDO              67  91  67  91 /  30  30  30  20
CLOUDCROFT              51  70  52  71 /  40  60  40  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   64  86  66  88 /  40  30  30  20
SILVER CITY             58  78  59  80 /  50  40  30  20
DEMING                  63  88  65  90 /  40  20  30  20
LORDSBURG               62  85  64  87 /  40  30  30  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      71  93  73  94 /  20  20  30  20
DELL CITY               70  96  72  96 /  20  20  20  20
FORT HANCOCK            70  95  72  96 /  20  20  30  30
LOMA LINDA              67  89  69  89 /  20  20  30  20
FABENS                  68  94  70  95 /  20  20  30  20
SANTA TERESA            68  91  70  92 /  20  20  30  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  90  68  91 /  20  30  40  20
JORNADA RANGE           66  90  66  91 /  20  20  30  20
HATCH                   63  89  65  91 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS                65  89  66  91 /  40  20  30  20
OROGRANDE               69  91  70  91 /  20  20  30  20
MAYHILL                 57  77  57  79 /  30  50  40  40
MESCALERO               55  80  55  80 /  40  50  40  30
TIMBERON                58  78  59  78 /  30  50  40  30
WINSTON                 55  77  57  78 /  50  40  30  40
HILLSBORO               60  85  62  87 /  40  30  30  30
SPACEPORT               64  88  66  90 /  30  20  30  20
LAKE ROBERTS            51  77  53  81 /  50  40  30  30
HURLEY                  59  81  60  83 /  40  30  30  20
CLIFF                   58  83  60  85 /  50  40  30  20
MULE CREEK              53  79  55  82 /  40  40  30  20
FAYWOOD                 59  83  61  85 /  40  30  30  20
ANIMAS                  63  85  64  86 /  40  30  30  20
HACHITA                 62  86  63  89 /  40  30  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          61  84  63  86 /  40  50  30  40
CLOVERDALE              60  80  62  82 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26 GRZYWACZ


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