Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 031135
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
435 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. ON WEDNESDAY WE
WILL ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH SOME COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THEN ON THURSDAY COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR A BRISK DAY. FRIDAY WILL START A WARMING TREND AND BY
SUNDAY WE WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE`VE GOT A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF ACTIVE WEATHER AND ONE DECENT COOL
DOWN BEFORE OUR WEATHER QUIETS BACK DOWN. CURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS STILL TO OUR WEST AND IT IS STILL FUNNELING CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOP OFF AND ON THIS MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
HIGH AT OVER 8K AND EVEN THEN NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A COUPLE OF
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. BY THIS AFTERNOON DRIER AIR WILL BE
WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM AND WE WILL SEE MUCH LESS COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THEN ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WE WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN THE
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. PREVIOUSLY WE HAD A SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX FOR PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS EAST OF THE RIVER...BUT YESTERDAY
THE MODELS BEGAN TO SPEED UP THE SYSTEM AND TODAY`S MODELS
CONTINUE THAT SO THAT BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR HAS GOTTEN IN
PLACE THE MOISTURE HAS MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST...SO I`VE SCALED BACK
OR REMOVED MOST OF THE MENTION FOR SNOW IN THE LOWLANDS. THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FRIDAY WILL START A SLOW WARMING TREND AS WE
WILL SIT UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WE`LL ADD A FEW DEGREES
OF WARMTH TO OUR HIGHS EACH DAY SO THAT BY SUNDAY WE WILL SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR NORMAL. THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS TO CONTINUE OUR DRY AND WARM WEATHER...BUT THE GFS MODEL IS
HINTING AT SOME MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES SNEAKING BACK INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH ON NEXT TUESDAY...BUT THE ECMWF IS NOT HAVING
ANY OF THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 03/12Z-04/12Z
MORE OF THE SAME FROM YESTERDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE AREA A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
TODAY. LIKE YESTERDAY WE WILL SEE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. MOST OF THE DAY WE WILL
HAVE CEILINGS OF BKN120...BUT AS SHOWERS DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA WE WILL SEE OCCASIONAL BKN040 CEILINGS. VISIBILITIES IN
THE SHOWER MAY ALSO DROP TO 1-3SM. BY THIS EVENING SHOWERS WILL
BECOME MORE ISOLATED WITH IMPROVING CEILINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE`LL SEE A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF ACTIVE WEATHER BEFORE THINGS WILL
SETTLE DOWN. CURRENTLY MOISTURE AND CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. LIKE YESTERDAY WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR LOWLAND RAIN
SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN TO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE DRIER AND
START A WARMING TREND. AGAIN...LIKE YESTERDAY...WE MAY SEE SOME
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEY SHOULD STAY
JUST BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. ON THURSDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES IN WE WILL AGAIN SEE WINDY EAST WINDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
MIN RH`S WILL RUN PRETTY HIGH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BECAUSE OF THE PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE. BY THE WEEKEND
WE WILL DRY OUT SOME AND SEE MIN RH`S RUNNING IN THE 20`S IN THE
LOWLANDS AND IN THE 30`S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 63  44  59  33  49 /  50   0  20  20   0
SIERRA BLANCA           64  43  56  26  44 /  50  10  30  30   0
LAS CRUCES              61  37  58  31  49 /  40   0  20  10   0
ALAMOGORDO              61  39  56  29  48 /  50  10  20  10   0
CLOUDCROFT              42  28  39  19  34 /  60  10  40  40   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   60  36  55  32  50 /  20   0  10  10   0
SILVER CITY             50  31  50  26  47 /  20  10  20  10   0
DEMING                  62  35  59  33  51 /  20   0  10  10   0
LORDSBURG               58  33  56  33  52 /  20  10  20  10   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      62  45  59  36  49 /  40   0  20  20   0
DELL CITY               65  38  57  27  45 /  50  10  30  20   0
FORT HANCOCK            67  46  61  33  50 /  50  10  30  20   0
LOMA LINDA              57  40  53  29  43 /  50   0  30  20   0
FABENS                  64  43  59  32  49 /  50   0  20  20   0
SANTA TERESA            62  41  59  32  49 /  40   0  20  10   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          61  41  57  32  47 /  50   0  20  20   0
JORNADA RANGE           61  32  58  26  50 /  40   0  20  10   0
HATCH                   62  36  59  31  52 /  30   0  20  10   0
COLUMBUS                62  40  58  35  50 /  30   0  20  10   0
OROGRANDE               63  42  58  31  47 /  50   0  20  10   0
MAYHILL                 51  30  44  18  36 /  50  10  30  30   0
MESCALERO               49  30  45  19  41 /  60  10  30  30   0
TIMBERON                49  31  46  22  39 /  50  10  30  30   0
WINSTON                 51  31  47  26  44 /  20  10  10  10   0
HILLSBORO               55  35  52  30  47 /  20  10  10  10   0
SPACEPORT               62  34  57  28  50 /  20   0  20  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            49  29  48  24  48 /  30  10  20  10   0
HURLEY                  53  31  51  26  47 /  20  10  10  10   0
CLIFF                   57  31  55  28  55 /  20  10  20  10   0
MULE CREEK              52  24  51  22  53 /  20  10  20  10   0
FAYWOOD                 54  34  51  30  47 /  20  10  20  10   0
ANIMAS                  60  36  58  33  53 /  20  10  20  10   0
HACHITA                 61  35  58  32  52 /  20   0  20  10   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          61  37  58  32  53 /  20  10  20  10   0
CLOVERDALE              56  37  55  33  52 /  30  10  30  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE




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