Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 291013
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
413 AM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry southwest flow aloft will continue through Tuesday, with very
few clouds and temperatures a bit above normal. Winds aloft will
turn more northwest by Wednesday and east winds at the surface
will bring in fair amount of low level moisture. Some
thunderstorms are possible...mostly from the Rio Grande Valley
east. By this next weekend the upper flow turns to the north while
at the surface some moisture remains. We can expect an isolated
thunderstorm into the weekend. Temperatures will fall below normal
Wednesday through Friday and then back to near normal the rest of
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Mostly dry and warm to kick off the first half of this week, but
then moisture influx and disturbances aloft will give the second
half of the week a more distinct damp, cooler pattern, with
slight chances of thunderstorms. In the short term, an upper low
continues to spin over southern California. Short waves continue
to rotate from the low eastward. WV imagery shows one short
wave moving across southern New Mexico at this time. It was able
to tap into a bit of sub tropical moisture, so an enhanced band of
higher clouds is moving across our southern and eastern zones.
Eyeball and obs not showing much more than higher clouds. Dewpoint
depressions are generally are around 50-60 degrees so not much
more than virga even possible. To our east, dryline has done the
typical westward pulse in at night. Dewpoints are in the 40s to 50
from about Sierra Blanca eastward. Hi-res models showing this
moisture flushing out by around daybreak, likely influenced by the
upper wave passing through.

Southwest flow aloft will continue Mon/Tue with very little
moisture and continued normal or slightly above normal
temperatures. Remains of upper low approach the Gila region Tuesday
so did include low pop for that area.

Upper low moves across southern New Mexico Wednesday. Cooler air
associated with it will destabilize the atmosphere some, while
near the surface dry line moves back west into the CWA from the
northeast late Tuesday night into Wednesday. CAPES of 500-1200
j/kg develop Wednesday in the east. Believe best chances of
thunderstorms will be from the Rio Grande Valley east and also the
Gila Region. The moisture spreads over most of the CWA Thursday,
but highest dewpoints/PW continue in the east, where best chances
of thunderstorms persist into Friday. One other consideration is
that the upper flow turns north Friday as the upper low moves off
east, and this flow quite often brings good short wave energy down
with it.

Saturday/Sunday...Upper ridge axis right over New Mexico, along
with partial flushing of the low level moisture, should end
thunderstorm activity. The cooler temperatures of Wed-Fri should
warm back up to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...29/12Z-30/12Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Upper disturbance
has brought band of clouds (Bkn/Ovc200) from about Las Cruces
eastward. Clouds should dissipate while moving east over the next
six hours. Surface winds this afternoon 8-12 kts

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and warm weather through Tuesday as upper flow remains from
the southwest ahead of a southern California upper low. Fire
danger class will remain very height to extreme but no
significant winds are expected. The low then moves across southern
New Mexico Wednesday/Thursday. Combined with low level moisture
surge from the east, near critical fire conditions will ease. A
chance of thunderstorms will begin Wednesday through Friday, all
zones but 111. Rh relief will also appear as the Rh`s in the teens
of the past several days will increase into the 50s and 60s by
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 91  62  92  64 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           90  59  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              89  56  91  55 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              89  56  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              66  39  67  37 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   86  54  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             81  48  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  88  50  90  53 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               87  52  90  50 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      91  60  92  64 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               92  55  92  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            93  61  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              86  57  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  92  59  91  60 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            90  57  91  59 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          89  60  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           89  48  90  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   92  54  92  54 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                90  55  91  57 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               90  58  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 80  44  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               78  40  78  42 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                76  40  75  40 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 83  40  82  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               87  52  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               88  47  89  49 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            80  37  84  37 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  81  46  84  48 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   87  39  87  41 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              85  36  85  38 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 86  48  86  47 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  88  53  90  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 91  48  91  52 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          87  52  89  52 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              84  48  83  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

17/Hefner


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