Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 131000
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
400 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
DAY TIME HEATING WILL CAUSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AND SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN FRONT
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WITH
INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE WEST IN
NORTHERN MEXICO. ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN OCCURRING MOSTLY WEST AND NORTH OF DEMING.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL WILL OCCUR
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES AND
STREAMS IN THE MOUNTAINS IS POSSIBLE. TODAY`S TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REBUILDING OVER THE AREA. CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE HIGH TO FUEL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH DAY TIME HEATING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL HAVE
BETTER COVERAGE OF RAIN DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. DAY TIME
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS AN IMPULSE DROPS SOUTH OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS PORTRAYED IT BUT WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF ENHANCING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL
HAIL POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE RAIN MAY OCCUR OVER AREAS EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE...ESPECIALLY THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. DAT TIME
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BOTH DAYS.

FRIDAY AND NEXT SATURDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REBUILDING
OVER THE AREA. THE INCREASED STABILITY WILL INHIBIT SOME STORM
DEVELOPMENT. ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO HELP FUEL
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND
MOUNTAIN OROGRAPHIC LIFT. WITH THE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE ARE DAY
TIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 13/1200Z - 14/1200Z...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 20Z. EXPECT P6SM
SCT-BKN080-100 WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE GILA REGION...AND ACROSS THE BOOTHEEL...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT AN AREA-WIDE UPTICK IN T-STORM ACTIVITY ON TODAY AS WE GET ON
THE MORE FAVORABLE BACK SIDE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. MONDAY COULD BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WITH
NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT MORE FAVORABLE FOR MAINTAINING MORE ORGANIZED
LOWLAND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

A STRONG TROUGH AND COLD AIR OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL END UP
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA MID-WEEK...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 95  75  97  75  97 /  20  30  20  30  20
SIERRA BLANCA           91  65  92  66  92 /  10  20  20  10  20
LAS CRUCES              95  70  96  71  94 /  20  30  20  30  30
ALAMOGORDO              94  68  95  71  94 /  20  30  20  30  20
CLOUDCROFT              72  51  73  51  75 /  30  40  40  40  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   93  71  91  69  93 /  20  30  30  30  30
SILVER CITY             84  66  86  63  86 /  40  40  30  40  50
DEMING                  95  70  95  70  95 /  30  30  30  30  30
LORDSBURG               93  68  94  67  92 /  30  30  30  30  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      96  75  98  74  97 /  20  30  20  30  20
DELL CITY               94  66  95  69  95 /  20  20  20  10  20
FORT HANCOCK            96  70  98  71  98 /  20  20  20  20  20
LOMA LINDA              89  66  92  65  92 /  20  30  20  20  20
FABENS                  96  71  98  74  97 /  20  30  20  20  20
SANTA TERESA            95  71  96  74  95 /  20  30  20  30  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          93  72  96  72  95 /  20  30  20  30  20
JORNADA RANGE           95  65  95  68  94 /  20  30  20  30  20
HATCH                   96  69  97  70  97 /  30  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                93  71  94  72  93 /  30  30  30  30  30
OROGRANDE               95  68  96  70  96 /  20  30  20  20  20
MAYHILL                 81  54  80  54  82 /  30  40  30  40  40
MESCALERO               81  53  82  56  83 /  30  40  40  40  50
TIMBERON                79  53  80  55  82 /  30  30  30  40  30
WINSTON                 85  62  85  63  84 /  40  40  30  40  50
HILLSBORO               89  66  89  66  89 /  30  30  30  30  30
SPACEPORT               92  69  92  68  93 /  20  30  30  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            83  60  87  61  84 /  50  50  40  40  50
HURLEY                  85  67  87  68  89 /  40  40  30  40  40
CLIFF                   91  65  92  66  91 /  40  40  30  40  40
MULE CREEK              89  61  89  58  90 /  30  40  30  30  40
FAYWOOD                 89  66  90  64  89 /  40  30  30  30  40
ANIMAS                  93  69  94  69  93 /  20  40  30  30  30
HACHITA                 94  68  94  65  94 /  30  30  30  30  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          93  66  91  66  92 /  30  40  30  30  30
CLOVERDALE              89  62  89  63  89 /  30  40  30  30  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/04




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