Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 171123
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
423 AM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak storm system will slowly move over the state today with a
chance of lowland rain showers and mountain showers developing
through this evening. Dry conditions and westerly winds will occur
Wednesday and Thursday with near normal temperatures expected.
A complex storm system will impact the area beginning Thursday
night and continuing through Saturday with a mix of rain and
mountain snow and strong westerly winds. Temperatures will be
cooler through the weekend. Dry conditions and lighter winds will
occur Sunday and Monday with another storm system moving through
the region next Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A generally active weather pattern will continue today as a weak
developing low pressure system moves into the state as part of an
eastward shift by a deep positively tilted trough that straddles
the country. The system and a weak surface frontal boundary will
will act on plenty of residual moisture, left behind by a previous
system, to generate mainly isolated lowland rain showers and
mountain snow showers this afternoon and evening. Overall precip
amounts will be light with around a tenth of an inch of rain
possible and between 1 and 3 inches of snow possible for
elevations above 7000 feet.

As the cold core of the low moves over forecast area steep lapse
rates and a slightly unstable air mass will allow for the
development of a few thunderstorms which may produce small hail
and wind gusts to 45 mph this afternoon and evening. The most
likely area for thunderstorm development will be along the border
areas where lift and forcing from the upper low will be strongest.

The main trough axis will shift further east in Wednesday while
the local area gets a brief respite from active weather on
Wednesday and Thursday under short wave ridging. winds will become
more westerly and increase in speed to the 10 to 20 mph range.
Temperatures will be near or slightly above normals both days.

The region will return to active weather as the next upper trough
moves into the state as early as Thursday night and continues
through the area on Friday. This system will generate lowland rain
showers and mountain snow showers as well windy conditions from
westerly winds in the 20 to 30 mph range as a result of tightening
pressure gradients across the state. Increased cloudiness and a
pacific cool front will force temperatures back below normal
on Friday.

The Friday system will be immediately followed by a complex
negatively tilted trough system that will scoop up Pacific
moisture and bring widespread precipitation to the area late
Friday night through Saturday. This system will generate multiple
weather impacts with numerous lowland rain showers, possibly heavy
mountain snow showers, thunderstorms and very strong west winds.
Snow amounts above 7000 feet may be in the 6 to 9 inch range with
lesser amounts down to 6000 feet. Thunderstorms will be able to
produce pea to dime sized hail. Winds will increase Saturday
afternoon as showers are diminishing with advisory level speeds of
25 to 35 mph possible with stronger gusts expected along eastern
slopes of area mountains.

Dry conditions will return on Sunday as the system exits the
region. High pressure aloft will dominate the local weather
pattern with mostly clear skies, light winds and seasonal
temperatures on Monday. Another winter storm system will move into
the state on Tuesday with a mix of lowland rain, mountain snow,
and strong winds all possible.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 17/12Z-18/12Z...
Generally VFR conditions expected at all taf sites through the
period. A weak slow moving low pressure system will generate a few
areas of rain and mountain snow over mostly the higher elevations
this afternoon and evening. A few showers could briefly impact.
Isolated -TSRA is possible. Ceilings will lower to between 6 and 8
kft aft 18z. Surface winds will mainly north and east at 5 to 10
knots until 03z. Drainage winds will occur aft 06z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak low pressure system west of New Mexico will move eastward
and develop some over the region Today. The system will generate a
few showers and maybe an occasional Thunderstorm but will not
produce that much precipitation. Snow amounts in the mountains
will be in the 1 to 3 range. A weak cold front will push into
eastern area an may aid precip development slightly. Winds will
shift to the northeast and east and remain fairly light.
Temperatures will be near or slightly below Temperatures will
warm slowly back to near normal. Residual moisture will keep
minimum humidity values in the 30 to 50 percent range. Winds will
remain light through Thursday. Another stronger Pacific storm
system will start approaching Friday which will increase the winds
and bring additional precipitation chances into the weekend.
Expect poor to fair vent rates through Wednesday, then improve for
the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 54  35  58  39 /  20  10   0   0
Sierra Blanca           50  32  57  36 /  30  20   0   0
Las Cruces              52  32  56  35 /  20  10   0   0
Alamogordo              52  33  53  35 /  30  10   0   0
Cloudcroft              34  25  38  27 /  40  20   0   0
Truth or Consequences   51  32  55  32 /  20  10   0   0
Silver City             48  29  50  30 /  20  20   0   0
Deming                  53  31  57  33 /  20  10   0   0
Lordsburg               54  32  56  32 /  20  10   0   0
West El Paso Metro      54  36  58  39 /  20  10   0   0
Dell City               47  32  59  33 /  40  20   0   0
Fort Hancock            55  33  60  37 /  20  10   0   0
Loma Linda              48  34  53  36 /  30  10   0   0
Fabens                  54  33  59  36 /  20  10   0   0
Santa Teresa            53  34  58  37 /  20  10   0   0
White Sands HQ          53  34  57  36 /  20  10   0   0
Jornada Range           53  31  56  31 /  20  10   0   0
Hatch                   52  32  56  33 /  20  10   0   0
Columbus                54  33  58  36 /  20  10   0   0
Orogrande               52  34  56  35 /  30  10   0   0
Mayhill                 43  27  48  32 /  40  20   0   0
Mescalero               43  27  46  29 /  40  20   0   0
Timberon                42  28  46  29 /  40  20   0   0
Winston                 46  26  51  26 /  40  30   0   0
Hillsboro               50  31  54  31 /  20  20   0   0
Spaceport               51  31  54  32 /  20  10   0   0
Lake Roberts            47  24  49  25 /  40  20   0   0
Hurley                  50  29  52  30 /  20  10   0   0
Cliff                   54  29  55  28 /  20  10   0   0
Mule Creek              52  29  53  27 /  20  10   0   0
Faywood                 50  30  53  32 /  20  20   0   0
Animas                  54  31  58  32 /  20  10   0   0
Hachita                 53  31  57  32 /  20  10   0   0
Antelope Wells          54  31  57  33 /  20  10   0   0
Cloverdale              51  32  54  34 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

04 Lundeen



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.