Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 310543 AAB
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
145 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 317 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night...

Little change in the overall pattern this forecast period.  The
forecast area remains under the influence of an upper level trough
and weak surface trough through the weekend. Short term models are
in good agreement showing ripples in the upper level flow, however
they are having difficulty handling disturbance moving through north
AL and the associated showers/thunderstorms which will move into
north GA by 5 pm.  Have raised pops, although they remain in the
chance category through this evening as deep moisture and upper
level disturbances will provide a focus for convective development.
PWATs in the 1.5-2.0 inch range support locally heavy rainfall and
ample CAPE available expect isolated thunderstorms will be possible.
With upper level ripples continuing into the overnight hours have
held slight chance pops overnight with chance pops again tomorrow
afternoon.  Guidance temperatures in line and stayed close.

Atwell

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...
Mid to long-range models show good agreement with a weak long
wave trough drifting along the Appalachians and dragging a weak
frontal boundary into the TN Valley Region by late Monday. This
coupled with subtle disturbances traversing through the upper
trough should enhance our chances for at least mainly diurnal
driven convection on Monday and Monday night. The upper trough
pushes off the Atlantic coast on Tuesday while high pressure
builds east from TX. This results in a weak frontal boundary
possibly sagging into central GA by late Tuesday while a weak
northwest flow becomes established aloft. This will likely result
in less rain chances across north GA and maybe low scattered
coverage across central GA for at least Tuesday and Wednesday next
week. Weak disturbances in the northwest flow aloft and increasing
low level moisture may help increase rain chances by Thursday and
Friday just a bit... but still much uncertainty on just how much
influence the ridge pushing in from the west will have on things.

Otherwise... weak shear and only moderate instability continues
to support mainly afternoon and evening general thunderstorms...
with nothing widespread or organized severe expected through the
long term.

The expected increase in clouds and rain chances should help hold
temps closer to seasonal normals on Monday... then this trend may
continue into mid week as a slightly cooler northwest flow becomes
established.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...

VFR conditions will predominate across the majority of the forecast
area through the forecast period outside of convection. Will see
some local to scattered MVFR or lower visibilities developing
between 06Z and 14Z. Although an isolated shower or thunderstorm
will be possible at any time...the best coverage will be between 16Z
and 02Z. Winds will remain west to southwest through the period...
generally 6KT or less through 14Z then increasing to 6-10KT after.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

Medium confidence concerning development and extent of any MVFR or
lower ceilings and visibilities this morning and on coverage of
convection this afternoon and evening. High all other elements.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  95  73  92 /  30  40  30  40
Atlanta         75  92  74  91 /  30  40  30  40
Blairsville     67  87  67  87 /  30  40  30  50
Cartersville    72  92  72  91 /  30  40  30  40
Columbus        76  94  75  92 /  60  40  40  40
Gainesville     73  91  73  91 /  30  30  30  40
Macon           75  96  75  93 /  60  40  40  40
Rome            72  92  72  92 /  30  30  30  40
Peachtree City  72  92  72  90 /  40  40  30  40
Vidalia         76  96  75  94 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....DJN.83
AVIATION...31


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