Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 222333
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
733 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT
TERM...PRODUCING HOT TEMPERATURES AND A RELATIVE DEARTH OF
CONVECTION COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. DID CONTINUE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNSET TO
ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE POPPING UP
IN THE HEAT AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY.

THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE INFLUENCING THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND UNCOMFORTABLE HEAT
INDICES. AS A RESULT...ONE MORE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
NOON TO 8PM SATURDAY FOR SOME CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES WHERE HEAT
INDICES ARE FORECAST TO REACH OR EXCEED 105 DEGREES. IF POSSIBLE
LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITY...DRINK PLENTY OF WATER...AND CHECK ON
ELDERLY NEIGHBORS IN THESE AREAS.

CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROUNDING
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...WHICH COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS COVER
THE REST OF THE AREA AS ISOLATED ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
THE HEAT AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
BRIEFLY STRONG...WITH A STORM OR TWO REACHING SEVERE LIMITS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.


RW/31


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED WEST OF THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE EXTENDED AND PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEK. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
PUSHES IN FOR SUNDAY AND THUS BEST CHANCE OF POPS APPEAR TO BE
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. BY MONDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST...RIDGING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THIS AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE CONSISTENT WITH LIMITING POPS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND ARE BASICALLY SHOWING NO PRECIP. AT THIS
POINT...CANNOT COMPLETELY FOLLOW GUIDANCE AND WITH A WEDGE LIKE
SITUATION AND IT BEING SUMMERTIME HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP...AT LEAST FOR THE DAYTIME PERIODS. THE
OTHER UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS IS THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. GFS SHOWS
BASICALLY NEAR ZERO CAPE...BUT AGAIN WITH IT BEING
SUMMERTIME...HAVE LEFT IN ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THE DAYTIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS THOUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF ITS
NECESSARY TO BACK OFF ON THUNDER. SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR
THURSDAY. GIVEN THIS TREND...HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE
OF RAIN/THUNDER FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY COMPARED
TO SATURDAY...A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
GEORGIA COULD STILL CREEP INTO THE MID 100S FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES.
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ON MONDAY...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
80S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KTS OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL BRING SCATTERED TSRA TO THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY ATL TO
AHN...SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENT.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  99  73  89 /   5  30  30  60
ATLANTA         76  95  76  90 /   5  30  20  60
BLAIRSVILLE     68  89  68  83 /  10  30  30  60
CARTERSVILLE    70  95  72  91 /   5  30  20  60
COLUMBUS        77  99  77  95 /   5  20  20  60
GAINESVILLE     74  93  74  86 /   5  30  30  60
MACON           73 100  74  93 /   5  20  20  60
ROME            70  96  73  92 /  10  20  20  60
PEACHTREE CITY  70  96  73  91 /   5  20  20  60
VIDALIA         76 100  75  93 /   5  20  20  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...
CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...
MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...
SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...
WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CLARKE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...
HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...
MACON...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...
PEACH...PULASKI...PUTNAM...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...
WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...
WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW/31
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...RW/31








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