Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 052330 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
630 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.EVENING UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS
TIME AS A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES TONIGHT... RESULTING
IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS... ALL OF WHICH... RESULTS IN
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR ALL AREAS. /39


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS.../ISSUED AT 326 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

...POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA...AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY 40S AND 50S. THE
EXCEPTION TO THE DRY FORECAST IS THE EXTREME EAST CENTRAL AREA FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AN UPPER COLD CORE LOW WILL COMBINE BY
SATURDAY EVENING TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION MAINLY FOR THE
CAROLINAS AND EASTERN GA. THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES SHOULD BE ON THE
FRINGES OF THIS PRECIPITATION SO LOW POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR
THAT AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUGGEST A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT IT ALL LIQUID
SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON ACTUAL QPF AMOUNTS.

41

&&

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL IN PORTIONS OF
NORTH GA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ABNORMALLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EAST CONUS AND DECENT MOISTURE
PROFILES/LAPSE RATES BELOW 600-MB IN PROGGED SOUNDINGS. VERY COLD
THERMAL PROFILES WITH EVEN -10 C ADVECTING IN AT 850-MB BY MONDAY
NIGHT. WILL NOT BE MUCH QUESTION TO P-TYPE GIVEN THIS SETUP AS A
QUICK RAIN TO SNOW SHOWER TRANSITION IS LIKELY...ALTHOUGH QPF AND
SNOW RATIOS WILL BE THE BIGGER UNCERTAINTY. OVERALL INCLUDING SOME
NW FLOW/TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PROVIDE SOME LOCAL QPF
ENHANCEMENT...COULD SEE SOME 0.25 TO NEAR 0.30 LIQUID EQUIV AND
HIGHER SNOW RATIOS ABOVE 12 TO 1 ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES
AND DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES. NEEDLESS TO SAY WILL BE TRICKY TO
PINPOINT AMOUNTS AT THE MOMENT AND FORECAST CHANGES ARE PROBABLE
SO PLEASE KEEP MONITORING UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD... WITH MAINLY A WIND
FORECAST. CURRENT NNW WINDS AROUND 7-9KTS WILL DIMINISH A BIT THEN
VEER NNE BY 09-10Z SAT MORN. EXPECT A NNE WIND AROUND 5-7KTS TO
PERSIST INTO LATE SAT AFTN BEFORE BACKING NNW BY 21Z SAT AND HOLDING
NNW SAT NIGHT. SPEEDS 6KTS OR LESS SAT EVENING-NIGHT. EXPECT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SAT AFTERNOON WITH APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS... EXCEPT MEDIUM ON TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          30  51  31  55 /   0   5   5   5
ATLANTA         31  50  32  54 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     26  47  27  49 /   0   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    27  50  29  53 /   0   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        31  53  33  56 /   0   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     31  49  32  52 /   0   5   5   5
MACON           29  53  31  56 /   0   5   5   5
ROME            27  50  29  54 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  27  51  29  54 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         33  53  36  56 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41/39
LONG TERM....20/BAKER
AVIATION...39


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