Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000
FXUS62 KFFC 290720
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
220 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING TRANSITIONS TO WEAK RIDGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT WHILE AT THE SFC THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. MAIN
FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE WARMING TREND. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT
THE SFC AND WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN ALOFT TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY...RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY THOUGH...HIGH TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AS MOST AREAS WARM BACK INTO THE 60S AND EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH ALMOST ALL OF THE CWA IS
BELOW FREEZING THIS MORNING...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WONT HAPPEN AGAIN
FOR MOST OF THE CWA FOR A BIT. AFTER THIS MORNING...LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE ABOVE FREEZING FOR BOTH THE SHORT AND LONG TERM /EXCEPTION MAY
BE A SMALL AREA IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE SHORT TERM/.

SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS DRY. SOME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS IN
TERMS OF CLOUD COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...WITH
THE NAM MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE. THINK THE NAM IS OVERDONE BUT STILL
LOOKING AT SOME CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM SHOW SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA SUNDAY MORNING
AND THIS WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY ACROSS FAR NORTH
GEORGIA.

11


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL TREND IN THE LONG TERM IS ZONAL FLOW WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS ZONAL FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP THE
ARCTIC AIR TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTH GA LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTH GA. A WEDGE DEVELOPS FOR A SHORT PERIOD
TIME TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS WILL DISSIPATE AS THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME WITH TIMING AND
DEPTH OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE. WHAT THEY DO AGREE ON IS THAT
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH GA AT THE END OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTH GA
AND MAINTAIN THIS THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.

17


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
WINDS THIS MORNING ARE WAVERING AROUND S AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO THROUGH SUNRISE. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT INITIALLY THOUGH. AS
THE WINDS BECOME STRONGER /ABOUT 8KTS/ BY MID MORNING...THE
DIRECTION SHOULD BE MORE SSW. GUIDANCE IS VERY DIFFERENT THIS
AFTERNOON IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVERAGE AT NORTHERN TAF SITES. THINK
THE ONE MODEL IS OVERDOING IT...BUT DID GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF FEW040 FOR THE AFTERNOON. THINK THE BKN CIGS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS. MEDIUM ON CIGS AND WIND.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  38  64  45 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         56  43  63  50 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     55  35  62  39 /   0   0   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    57  40  63  44 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        60  41  66  48 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     54  40  60  47 /   0   0   5   5
MACON           60  36  68  45 /   0   0   0   5
ROME            57  39  63  45 /   0   0   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  58  35  64  43 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         62  42  70  50 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11


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