Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 220545
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1245 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Dry, hot conditions continue across the area this afternoon, with
the dome of upper level high pressure remaining centered over
portions of the south central/southeastern CONUS. At the surface, a
trough axis extends from west-central KS northeastward into
northeastern NE. This boundary is clipping far northwestern portions
of the CWA, with light/variable to calm winds. Across the remainder
of the CWA, winds have been south-southwesterly, helping mix out
dewpoints for mainly NC KS into the 50s and temperatures to around
105 deg. Closer to/along the boundary, dewpoints are higher, into
the mid 70s for some, with temps in the lower/mid 90s. Just another
miserable day as heat index values for most are around 105 deg.

Through the rest of this afternoon and into this evening, outside of
the heat, the main concern lies with thunderstorm chances. The
surface boundary across the northwestern areas looks to provide a
focus for development. Forcing aloft is pretty weak, and there is
plenty of warm air aloft/capping, but with peak heating of the day,
models are in pretty good agreement showing at least
isolated/scattered activity developing. Strong/severe storms remain
a concern, with portions of the CWA remaining in the SPC Day 1
Marginal Risk area. Instability certainly not an issue, but deep
layer shear is low, will keep the mention on marginally severe wx in
the HWO.

Overnight, have low PoPs continuing mainly across south central NE.
Models show the sfc/low level boundary gradually sagging south,
along with lift on the northern edge of a 30-ish kt LLJ, so could
have scattered activity around much of the night. Any severe wx
threat should wane with time.

Looking at precip chances Sat/Sat night, the sfc cool frontal
boundary continues working its way south, starting the day roughly
through the heart of the CWA. Strong/severe thunderstorms will again
be a concern, mainly across the southern half of the CWA during the
late afternoon and into the evening hours. Upper level forcing
continues to be on the weak side, but shear is a bit better. Will
keep ping pong balls/60MPH going in the HWO.

Along with helping drive thunderstorm chances tomorrow, this frontal
boundary is making the temperature forecast a bit of a headache.
Yes, forecast high temperatures are expected to be cooler than the
past several days, but still looking at highs in the 90s, perhaps
100 in far southern areas. Will be dependent on the speed of the
front pushing south and the magnitude of mixing out ahead into the
hottest air aloft. Along/south of the front, will likely see
moisture/dewpoints pooling, keeping the muggy conditions around.
Decided to keep heat headlines going across the far southeastern
portions of the CWA, where current forecast has heat index values
hitting 100-105, though it may only be briefly. Thought about
letting today`s headline expire this evening and let the mid crew
reassess, but the southeast isn`t going to have notable relief
overnight, and since we have had headlines going the past several
days, felt it would be best to just continue the headline right on
through tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Hard to have a lot of confidence in any specific details of the long
term period.

On Sunday, may start the day with a few lingering storms across far
south, but otherwise the rest of the day is currently dry. More
northwesterly flow is expected to return in the upper levels, with
the main area of high pressure/ridge axis back off to our west. Not
a lot of change in that as we get into Monday, but toward mid-week,
a more notable trough moving toward the west coast looks to push the
main ridge axis east, back onto the Plains. Through the long term,
any periodic precipitation chances would be tied to disturbances
sliding around the edge of the ridge, and confidence in timing or
location is not high at all.

As far as temperatures go, no reason to deviate from the model blend
with plenty of uncertainty, with forecast highs generally in the
upper 80s to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Saturday)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Mainly VFR conditions expected at both terminals except for the
chance for a storm during the afternoon hours Saturday. A weak
front will continue to slowly slide southward throughout the
forecast period. Winds will be mainly variable overnight and
become north to northeast by morning. Cloud cover will increase
as the front moves southward, but conditions should remain VFR.
There will be a chance for storms at both terminals during the
afternoon hours. The better chances for thunderstorms will be
toward the evening hours, but expect this to remain south of the
terminals.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ086-087.

KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ006-017.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ007-
     018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...Billings Wright



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