Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 301043
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
543 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE PLAINS...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY DAYBREAK OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS
THE SYSTEM PASSES. OTHERWISE...NOT A WHOLE LOT TO SAY ABOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIODS WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING THE DAY IN DRIER
AIR/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER WAVE. STEADY NORTH WINDS
WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE SFC GRADIENT RELAXES AS
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS REACHES CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. IN THE
COOLER AIRMASS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY...LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT THE SFC RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES EAST WITH RETURN
FLOW GRADUALLY SETTING UP. IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW IN OUR
EASTERN ZONES SOME MODELS SUGGEST LOW CLOUD COVER MAY WORK INTO OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES AND THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. AN
UPPER JET NOSING SOUTHEAST FM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS MAY ALSO BRING IN
SOME CLOUD COVER FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES. ULTIMATELY TEMPS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND HAVE WENT WITH LOWS IN THE
40S IN THE STILL COOL AIRMASS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

ALOFT: THE RIDGE OVER THE WRN USA SUN WILL PROGRESS E OVER THE
PLAINS MON-TUE AS THE NEXT TROF MOVES ONSHORE IN THE W. PASSAGE OF
THE RIDGE AXIS LATE TUE WILL RESULT IN THE FLOW BACKING TO WSW. THE
EVOLVING TROF OVER THE W WILL BECOME BROAD WITH MULTIPLE LOW-
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROFS WITH LOW-PREDICTABILITY MOVING THRU FROM
TIME TO TIME.

SURFACE: THE INFLUENCE OF COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL DECREASE SUN
AS IT CONTS MOVING E. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE WITH A
LEE TROF REDEVELOPING. MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK THE FCST AREA WILL
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHEN/IF THE PAC FRONT
THAT MOVES ONSHORE WITH THE INITIAL TROF WILL EVEN MOVE THRU HERE.
THE MAIN POLAR FRONT WILL STRETCH OUT FROM W-E OVER THE NRN USA.
THAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TSTMS. THE PAST 2 RUNS OF THE EC
AND GEM TRY TO TAKE A LOW NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE FRONT
SAGGING S THRU THE FCST AREA. BELIEVE THIS IS DUE TO CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK AND THIS IDEA HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED.

SOME DAILY DETAILS...

SUN: VARIABLE MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS INVADE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE FCST READS P/CLOUDY BUT IT COULD BE
M/CLOUDY FOR A TIME...AND THE FCST IS PROBABLY NOT CLOUDY ENOUGH.
SCT SHWRS WILL BE OVER THE DAKOTAS. THERE IS A CHANCE THE SRN FRINGE
COULD DROP INTO NEB AS SOME SPRINKLES...AND THIS IS NOW IN THE FCST
N OF HWY 6.

MON-TUE: WE COULD HAVE A MAJOR SNAG IN THE FCST. MULTI-MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS ALL SHOW A LAYER OF STRATUS OVERCAST. THAT MEANS THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE BUST POTENTIAL TO THE DOWNSIDE WHERE STRATUS OCCURS...
AND TO THE UPSIDE WHERE IT DOES NOT OCCUR. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S
VS 80S?

GULF MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY RETURN N SUN-MON...WITH AN EML ADVECTING
OVERTOP OF THIS MOIST PLUME AS MID-LVL WINDS BACK TO THE SW. EXPECT
TSTMS WILL BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE WITHIN THE LEE TROF...SOME OF WHICH
WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO TSTM CLUSTERS/MCS`S AND PROPAGATE E INTO OR
NEAR THE FCST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED AND/OR JOINED BY
NEW DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE DIURNAL PULSES OF THE LOW-LVL JET.
DETERMINING WHEN/WHERE/IF TSTMS WILL OCCUR IS IMPOSSIBLE WITH ANY
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING. SO THE FCST HAS A
CHANCE OF TSTMS PRETTY MUCH EVERY DAY.

RAINFALL: THIS PATTERN HAS POTENTIAL TO DELIVER SOME VERY HEAVY
AND/OR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...DEPENDENT ON THE TRACKS OF THIS MCS
ACTIVITY. THE PAST TWO RUNS OF GFS/EC HAVE RUN-TOTAL QPF IN THE 3-7"
RANGE OVER PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

SEVERE: PLEASE SEE THE DAY 4-8 DISCUSSION FROM SPC. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR TSTMS. HOWEVER...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE ANY
SPECIFICS GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF FORCING. THE POTENTIAL WILL
NEED TO BE DETERMINED ON A DAILY BASIS AS WE SEE HOW DETAILS
EVOLVE. ONE THING DOES SEEM CLEAR: WEAK WIND FIELDS AND A LACK OF
SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE SVR THREAT TO PRIMARILY WIND AND HAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

THE CLEARING LINE IS WORKING TOWARD THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. STEADY NORTH
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS REACHES CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING SOUTHEAST ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE EXITING RIDGE. MODELS VARY ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER
TOWARDS 12Z SUNDAY AND HAVE KEPT THINGS SCATTERED ATTM.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY


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