Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 230524
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1224 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

FOCUS IS ON STRONG WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED RIDGING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CONUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WARMER AIR HAS BEEN WORKING
EASTWARD AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 60S/70S AIDED BY
GOOD MIXING IN A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST OF THE MO RIVER AND LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE ROCKIES. SO FAR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE
BEEN HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
WILL MONITOR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE SFC
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN TIGHT AS THE SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH
REACH THE HIGH PLAINS. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
STEADY/GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THE LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO 50KTS TONIGHT
AND IN WAA REGIME WE COULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
THIS TO SOME DEGREE INDICATING THAT THE POTENTIAL IS MORE ISOLATED
AND CONFINED MORE SO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF OUR CWA...MORE
IN LINE ALONG THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. IT IS STILL HARD TO SAY
WHERE CONVECTION WILL ULTIMATELY FORM AS IT WILL BE HIT OR MISS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ISOLATED TO SMALL CHC POPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE FORECAST TURNS MORE INTERESTING ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EDGES CLOSER TO THE PLAINS. THE FLOW
ALOFT TRANSITIONS SOUTHWESTERLY AND THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OF
THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN KS.
HAVE WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND WITH SFC DPS RISING TO AROUND 50F OR
IN THE LOW 50S...AND INSTABILITY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1000 AND
1500 J/KG IN THE AFTN. AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY ADVANCING SE ACROSS NEB AND THE
DRY LINE ACROSS WESTERN KS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. BASED ON 12Z WRF MODEL TIMING...CONVECTIVE INITIATION
FAVORS THE 22Z TO 23Z TIME FRAME ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA WITH STORM
COVERAGE INCREASING BY 00Z. SHEAR PROGS ARE AROUND 30KTS...AND
COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT/FOCUS ALONG THE
BOUNDARIES...CONDITIONS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL/QUARTER SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE THE ONLY CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY...AS WINDS
WILL BE VERY STRONG/GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH IN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MIXING INITIALLY CLOSE TO H85 IN THE MORNING AND
DEEPENING TO H7 OR JUST ABOVE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AT THE
TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 35 AND 45KTS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL GO AHEAD WITH A WIND ADVISORY DURING THE DAY. HOW
FAR WEST TO GO WITH HEADLINE IS TRICKY AS WINDS WILL DECREASE AS
BOUNDARY MOVES IN...BUT DECIDED TO BUFFER A ROW OF COUNTIES TO THE
WEST IN CASE THINGS SLOW DOWN...AND END TIMING OF HEADLINE CAN BE
ADJUSTED/CANCELLED EARLIER THAN OUR EASTERN AREAS. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT IN THE EVENING...3HR PRESSURE RISES ARE GREATER THAN
5MB SO STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...JUST BEYOND
THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND TEMPERATURES.

THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOSTLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS AND GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MUCAPE IS BEST IN THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING AND DECREASES BY MIDNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE EVENING HOURS.

BY THURSDAY MORNING THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA AND THE SUN WILL COME OUT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE...BUT SHOULD STILL BE AROUND
70 DEGREES. THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA AND BRINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ON
SATURDAY THEN STARTS TO CIRCLE THE PLAINS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS
THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW THERE COULD BE A DRY SLOT THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD WHERE THERE WAS
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME AND HAVE LOWERED POPS JUST A
LITTLE. AS THE LOW DRIFTS THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY THE PRECIPITATION WILL WRAP AROUND AND BACK INTO THE AREA.
THE MODELS BRING COLDER AIR IN BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT
THE TREND HAS BEEN A LITTLE WARMER SO EVEN THOUGH THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF AROUND ZERO DEG C GET NEAR THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE KEPT JUST RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW BRINGS IN COLDER AIR FOR MONDAY AND THE RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPER
LOW FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST AND PULLS THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY GOING IN THE FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
IT REMAINING THAT WAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS NOT THE
HIGHEST...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
PRECIP/THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN SOME RESTRICTIONS. AT THIS
POINT...WITH THERE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING/LOCATION
OF INITIAL DEVELOPMENT...WILL KEEP THE VCTS MENTION GOING.
OTHERWISE...WINDS REMAIN A CONCERN...AS IT WILL BE A BREEZY/WINDY
TAF PERIOD. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING...SPEEDS
WILL TAPER OFF A BIT...BUT THEN THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ040-041-047>049-061>064-073>077-083>087.

KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ADO



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