Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGID 041937
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
237 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...A FEW SEVERE TSTMS POSSIBLE THRU LATE THIS EVE WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...

ALOFT: THE UPR-LVL FLOW WAS CHARACTERIZED BY TROFS OVER THE ERN
USA AND WRN USA...WITH A RIDGE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND OVER
THE PLAINS. THE FLOW WILL BE PROGRESSIVE THRU TOMORROW WITH
GENERAL DEAMPLIFICATION. WV IMAGERY SHOWED A LOW OVER WY/CO WITH
A TROF EXTENDING SE INTO KS. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE FCST
AREA TONIGHT AND E OF THE REGION TOMORROW. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
FOLLOW TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SURFACE: THE POLAR FRONT WAS QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE OH AND
MID MS RIVER VALLEYS...ACROSS NRN KS AND THEN NW BANKED UP AGAINST
THE ROCKIES. THIS FRONT WILL PROBABLY SINK S INTO NRN OK...
PROBABLY SHOVED S BY TSTM OUTFLOWS.

SVR TSTM WATCH 470 IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW FRINGE OF THE FCST
AREA UNTIL 9 PM.

WITH THE UPR TROF MOVING THRU...TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU THE
NIGHT...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO PART OF TOMORROW MORNING.

AM VERY CONCERNED ABOUT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

RAINFALL: CONTEMPLATED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONG AND S OF HWY 6...
INCLUDING N-CNTRL KS. SINGLE CELL STORM MOVEMENTS HAVE BEEN VERY
SLOW TODAY...AND ARE ONLY FCST TO BE 5-15 KTS FROM N-S ACROSS THE
FCST AREA TONIGHT.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT THAT LIES ACROSS
NRN KS. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING PERSISTENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND ONCE
THE MODEST LOW-LVL JET FORMS...IT WILL FURTHER MAINTAIN/ENHANCE
LIFT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.

WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS AND MAY STILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH BEFORE THIS AFTERNOON IS OVER. WE HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A
WARNING FOR SE PHILLIPS COUNTY.

WHILE THE FCST AREA HAS NOT SEEN MUCH RAIN OVER THE LAST WEEK...
IF PERSISTENT/REPEATED TSTM ACTIVITY OCCURS...LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW: ANY LEFTOVER RAIN SHOULD BE E OF THE FCST AREA BY MIDDAY
AT THE LATEST.

MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS COULD
LINGER THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...PUTTING A CAP ON TEMPS. WE HAVE
INDICATED SOME IMPROVEMENT W AND S OF THE TRI-CITIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS COULD BE HELD IN THE 70S N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE MID TERM PERIOD FOCUSES ON A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRUDGES
ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD...THE
PLAINS REMAIN SITUATED IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ABOVE THE RIDGE AND
THUS REAP THE BENEFITS OF SEVERAL PASSING DISTURBANCES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR OFF AND ON PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...AS THE RIDGE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW
AMPLIFIED...THE PLAINS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF 850 MB
TEMPERATURES. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IN THE 80S TO EVEN LOW 90S IN PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER...WARM TEMPERATURES ARE NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND MAY EVEN NOSE THEIR WAY IN A DAY OR TWO AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
RIDES NORTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.

BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD.
RIDGING LOOKS TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE WHICH WILL BRING BACK OUR HOT SUMMER TEMPERATURES AND LIKELY
DECREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THAT IS SEVERAL DAYS
AWAY AND MODELS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO CHANGE DRAMATICALLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WED AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER. THE PROBABILITY OF
IFR TSTMS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS INCREASES AFTER 21Z. E WINDS
GENERALLY 10-15 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TSTMS...BUT THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY APPEARS TO BE UNTIL 05Z. HOWEVER...CAN`T RULE OUT
ADDITIONAL TSTMS AFTER 05Z. MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR STRATUS MAY THEN
DEVELOP...AS INDICATED BY GFS MOS AND GFS LAMP GUIDANCE. SE WINDS
UNDER 10 KTS EXCEPT IN/NEAR TSTMS. CONFIDENCE: LOW

WED THRU 18Z: THE DAY PROBABLY BEGINS WITH IFR OR MVFR STRATUS...
AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT FOG IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING TSTMS.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR SHOULD OCCUR BY 15Z. ESE WINDS UNDER
10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.