Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 270826
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
326 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Thunderstorms have been moving through much of the forecast area
early this morning. The exception has been the south and eastern
part of the area.

The upper level wave that has brought these thunderstorms is almost
through the area already this morning. Most of the short term models
have the precipitation moving out of, or dissipating, by day break.
Have kept some small POPs for early this morning, but expect that
most of the precipitation will be out of the area by morning.

Expect there to be a break this morning before the next wave moves
into the area. Models have some small timing differences, but expect
there to be some thunderstorms around mostly during the afternoon
and evening. MUCAPES during the afternoon are 2500 to 4000 J/KG.
During the evening they drop off to around 2000 J/KG fairly quickly.
The thunderstorms should continue to push to the southeast during
the overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Northwest flow across the Central Plains Thursday into the first
part of the weekend will bring intermittent chances for showers and
thunderstorms through Saturday night. There are some model
differences in timing and how far east convection will reach into
our area Thursday and have continued with scattered pops attm. The
potential exists for strong to severe storms in the sheared
environment with damaging winds and large hail the primary hazards.
Heights rise on Sunday into the first part of next week with upper
ridging bringing drier and warmer conditions to our region with
temps trending above normal into the 90s again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Thunderstorms are approaching from the northwest and will get to
KEAR before KGRI. There is some wind with the storms currently.
Once these storms move through there will be a break with another
chance this afternoon.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...Fay
AVIATION...JCB


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