Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 201632
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

...Aviation Discussion...

&&

.AVIATION...

For the 18z TAFs:

VFR conditions will continue. Some minor variation in wind
direction ranging from southwesterly to southeasterly will occur
depending on the time of day, very similar to the last several
days.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 312 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The heat continues to be the story for the early portions of this
forecast period. Upper high will continue to influence the region
for a few more days but the center of the high should slowly shift
east. Each day through Saturday, afternoon highs are expected to be
the same or one to two degrees warmer than the previous day with a
number of locations across the fa likely reaching/breaking the
century mark. Humid conditions are also still expected, especially
in eastern portions of the fa where less mixing/drying is
forecast. With the persistent heat and potential for heat index
values of 105-108, will issue a heat advisory for parts of
Oklahoma for today into Friday. The heat advisory may be needed
into Saturday for parts of the area as well, but enough
uncertainty that will hold off on putting it into Saturday for
now.

Models show a shortwave moving into the the Great Lakes region this
weekend which will likely cause a weak frontal boundary to approach
the area. This boundary may not initially move into the fa but
convection near the boundary may effectively push it and/or other
outflow boundaries into portions of the area late this weekend/early
next week. With the potential for boundaries in/near the area, sfc
heating, and weak flow aloft, some showers and storms will be
possible, although likely not very widespread, late this weekend
into early next week. The highest chances for rain are currently
expected to be across the northern third to half of the fa, but will
likely be dependent on the locations of any boundaries in the area.
The rain, boundaries, and clouds could bring slight relief to the
heat for a few days. However, models show an upper high building
back into the region towards the middle of next week limiting rain
chances and causing temperatures to increase again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 100  77 100  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK        101  78 102  77 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX 100  77 100  77 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK          101  76 102  75 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK    101  77 102  77 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         97  76  98  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

26/12



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