Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 260804
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
304 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure through tonight. Warmer with upper level
disturbances and rain showers next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Sunday...

Zonal flow with surface high pressure settles in for the near
term, turning slightly southwesterly with vorticity maxima towards
12Z Monday, and warm frontal influences at the surface.
Significant weather through 00Z is limited to the eroding
stratocumulus deck, lastly exiting the northeast zones and near
normal temperatures across the area. After 00Z, have to
introduce slight chance POPs back into the fold with the
overrunning over the western zones. Lower confidence here with
actual measurable precipitation, and may need to use sprinkles
instead through 12Z Sunday in a future forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Sunday...

This period will see a warmer and increasingly unsettled
pattern. A series of upper disturbances will lift out of the
southwestern U.S. and across the Ohio Valley in a broad
southwest flow aloft. A weak warm front will lift north Monday,
heralding the warmer air. QPF amounts through Tuesday look to
be light with rather weak upper disturbances and lack of
significant low level forcing. However, an amplifying upper
trough sweeps southeastward across the Ohio Valley Wednesday
and Wednesday night, driving a strong cold front through our
area. Models are in good agreement with this feature, and will
likely be accompanied by widespread showers with a chance for
thunderstorms. Warmest day will be Wednesday, in the 70s prior
to the arrival of showers. Much colder air will move in behind
the front Wednesday night, with much of the precipitation
shutting down in the low lands. Precip may end later Wednesday
night as high elevation mountain snow showers with little
accumulation.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 250 AM Sunday...

Models, even at this late in the forecast period, have a clipper
type system diving southeastward across the Ohio valley
Thursday night into Friday in northwest flow aloft behind the
upper trough. The current track of the system would bring
wintry precip to mainly the northern half of the area.
Thereafter, Canadian high pressure will settle in for the
weekend.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1225 AM Sunday...

Stratocumulus to gradually dissolve overnight, lingering at CKB
and EKN thru 22Z. Some MVFR expected on the front end for EKN
and BKW in terms of the ceilings, with light snow at 6SM. Wind
gusts to subside below 15kts by 16-18Z. VFR expected through the
remainder of the period with no ceilings and only few to
scattered clouds expected above FL200.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EKN/CKB/BKW MVFR ceilings could fluctuate
through 12Z.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SUN 02/26/17
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...26


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