Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 011210
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
810 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS OHIO RIVER TODAY...WITH UPPER
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH TRIGGERING MORE STORMS. THE FRONT
THEN SETTLES FARTHER SOUTH...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
700 AM QUICK UPDATE...

I INSERTED SOME CATEGORICAL POPS AROUND CRW METRO AREA THRU 9 AM
TO ACCOUNT FOR ROGUE CELL TRACKING E. AGITATED CU NOTED ALONG I64
CORRIDOR...SO MAY SEE A FEW MORE CELLS POP UP WITH BL AT ITS
COOLEST...BEFORE DISSIPATING.

NO HUGE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NEAR TERM FORECAST. COLD
FRONT...AT 07Z...GENERALLY STRETCHED NW TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO...WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER
AREA TODAY. THIS WILL CREATE A BOUNDARY...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE NORTH...AND LESS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH
TODAY. MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH
TODAY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS...HELPING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER...A POP
UP SHOWER OR STORM CANT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS THE NORTH
IN THE WARM HUMID UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS...SO ELECTED TO PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH
CHANCE TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH. GOOD NEWS IS...THE BULK OF
STRONGER DYNAMICS LOOK AS THEY WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
OUR CWA...THUS...NO SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD STRONG STORM ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA OR
EVEN SOUTHERN WV CANT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. SPC HAS THE AREA IN
A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TODAY.

FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY...WENT WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS OF
LATE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE EXPECT LESS CLOUD COVER...AND KEPT
TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL WANE OVERNIGHT...BUT...WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTH...AS DISTURBANCES
CONTINUE TO CROSS THE AREA.

AM SLIGHTLY CONCERNED ABOUT CONTINUED WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER ISSUES WITH TIME. WILL ALLOW
DAY SHIFT TO EVALUATE ANY POTENTIAL ISSUES OR HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD FEATURES AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE AREA
BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL SRN STREAM FLOW. TEMPERATURE AND
STABILITY GRADIENT WILL FLUCTUATE IN POSITION BUT REMAIN MORE OR
LESS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A FRONT OSCILLATES OVER
THE SRN PORTION OF THE AREA. IT...AND UPPER LEVEL RIPPLES WILL
FOCUS BETTER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS THE S...AS THEY CROSS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS BOTH THU AND FRI.

PW VALUES ARE ACTUALLY PROGGED TO BE HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
MUCH OF THE TIME...1.5 INCHES OR EVEN HIGHER AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...CAPE IS PROGGED TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA MUCH OF THE TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEN
ALMOST ABSENT ALTOGETHER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SPC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS REFLECT THIS WITH MARGINAL RISK
MAINLY S OF THE AREA BOTH DAYS.

MODELS AND CENTRAL GUIDANCE SHOW HIGHEST QPF ACROSS SRN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WITH PEAK AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM 1.5 TO 3 INCHES
INCLUDING THE NEAR TERM. THE GFS IS THE ODD MODEL OUT...SHOWING
THE MAXIMUM AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL TO NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ITS
PEAK AMOUNTS ARE 3 TO 5 INCHES.

WILL CARRY MENTION OF POSSIBILITY FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED. SMALL
TEMPERATURE RANGES WITH LOWS AT OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...AND HIGHS
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHANCES FOR PCPN DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACCORDING TO
THE PREFERRED ECMWF MODEL OVER THE GFS...SHOWING QPF MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO BE. HAVE LIKELY POPS SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST.

MODELS SPREAD SOLUTIONS FROM DAY 4 TO DAY 7...SHOWING LIGHT PCPN
SUGGESTING UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY...MAINTAINED CHANCE POP MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 80S LOWLANDS RANGING TO THE
LOWER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS SHOULD STAY IN THE MID 60S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

COMBINATION OF MVFR STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTH...INCLUDING AT SITES
KPKB...KCKB...AND KEKN...AND IFR FOG AT OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WV. ANY FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AFTER
13-14Z...WITH THE MVFR DECK SCATTERING OUT BY 15Z...FOR A RETURN
TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY
WIND.

ISOLD CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK
HEATING...WITH GREATEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AFTER 21Z ACROSS
SOUTHERN WV...NORTHEAST KY...AND SOUTHWEST VA...WHERE MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AFTER
00Z...PARTICULARLY IN VICINITY OF STORMS. MOST LIKELY SITES TO
SEE CONVECTION WILL BE KBKW...KCRW AND KHTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEK.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL/30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...SL



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