Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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004
FXUS61 KRLX 190051
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
751 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front crosses tonight. Much colder Sunday. High
pressure early next week. Cold front Tuesday night. High
pressure again late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 750 PM Saturday...

Overall, winds gusts continue to be in the 30-40 mph range.
Did get a gust to 47mph at KW22, so opted to expand wind
advisory a bit into Barbour, Taylor and Upshur counties. Also
added the remainder of Webster and Randolph.

As of 255 PM Saturday...

A strong cold front will push through the region overnight.
Models still showing a strong low level jet near the cold front,
so still concerned with wind gusts along the front. Will need
to monitor this situation very closely, as a wind advisory may
still be needed.

Behind the cold front late tonight, models showing good lift for
a brief period. Looks like the higher elevations of the
mountains could get a quick inch or two of snow. Should see a
lull in snow during the morning hours, but as an impulse goes
through in the late afternoon hours, models showing good
moisture depth, cold air advection, and good upslope over
northeastern WV. Will increase pops accordingly.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...

The aforementioned weak impulse will be moving into the
mountains to start the period and enhances upslope snow through
roughly 06Z Monday. Deep moisture up through around 700 MB and
favorable dendritic growth indicate a burst of snow with
additional accumulations across higher terrain on the order of
1-2 inches, of course favoring areas above roughly 2500 ft.

Beyond 06Z Monday, low level moisture is largely lost or
continues to wane as the upper level trough moves off-shore.
High pressure will build in from the southwest clearing us out
for the day Monday. High pressure shifts toward the east and
puts us under southwesterly, WAA flow bumping temperatures up
considerably on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 400 PM Saturday...

Upper level ridging will yield to height falls with a potential
cut-off low across the southern states. This would place the
Mid-Ohio Valley/Central Appalachia between a weak, moisture-
starved northern stream wave across the upper Great Lakes
region and a deeply amplified trough extending down through the
eastern CONUS. Warm, moist advection up through the Piedmont
and the potential for coastal cyclogenesis suggests the
potential for upslope rainshowers along the Eastern slopes. It
would be aided by the northern stream cold front.

In spite of model disagreement during the middle of the week,
there is consistent signal for another potent system and cold
front coming through during the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 630 PM Saturday...

Conditions should quickly drop into MVFR over the next several
hours as a cold front moves in from the west. Obs to our west
have only showed sporadic IFR visibilities in the heaviest rain,
so did not include any IFR for now. Cannot rule out a brief drop
in better echos. Winds will continue to be gusty out of the
southwest, turning west and then northwest after the front
passes. Could get some gusts of 30-40kts in the showers late
this evening.

Rain will change to snow in the mountainous counties late
tonight or during the day Sunday with MVFR ceilings lingering
across much of forecast rea.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and associated restrictions
could vary. Brief IFR possible. Timing of the cold front could
vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 SUN
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    L    L    L    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    M

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in upslope snow showers across mainly the northern
mountain counties into Sunday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Wind Advisory until noon EST Sunday for WVZ520-522>524-526.
     Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for WVZ032-039-040-521-
     525.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 3 AM EST Monday
     for WVZ522-523-526.
OH...None.
KY...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/MC
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...TRM/MC
LONG TERM...TRM/MC
AVIATION...MZ



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