Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 281310
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
910 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV PER RADAR
IMAGES SHOWING A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING KANAWHA COUNTY.
THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST ALONG I64 CORRIDOR.
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO END AROUND 10 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOW
LEVELS...WILL UNDERGO A DRYING TREND. CLEAR SKIES WILL SETTLE IN
TONIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER LIGHT FLOW. FOR
TEMPS...WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF INHERITED FORECAST WITH BC BLEND.
HOWEVER...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LOWER FOR MOST AREAS FOR OVERNIGHT
MINS...AS MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER OVER THE
PAST FEW RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES FROM A DEEP
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL
BE A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS AIRMASSES BECOME
MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO
MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATUS DECK COVERS CENTRAL WV AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
STILL SEEING A FEW RADAR RETURNS FROM KBKW-KCRW-KEKN LINE WITH NW
GUSTY WINDS AND CAA. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO
EAST...PROVIDING SOME CLEARING INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS GRADUALLY
ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT CLOUD AND SNOW RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC







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