Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 310526
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
126 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...PROVIDING FOR A COMFY END TO
THIS SUMMER DAY. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY WILL RULE TONIGHT WITH SOME
DENSE VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO FORM
DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE BL WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

A MAGNIFICENT DAY ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WITH JUST A FEW FLAT CIRRUS.
LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 80S WITH THE COMFY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK BAROCLINIC TROUGH TO BRING LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. IT WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO HIGH WITH SATURDAY HIGHS BACK DOWN
INTO THE NORMAL RANGE...AND LOWER DEWPOINTS. THREW OUT THE NAM
SOLUTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING
THE FORECAST ON THE DRY SIDE. END OF THE WEEKEND SEES TEMPERATURES
CREEP BACK UPWARDS AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING
WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY...WHICH INTRODUCES A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE FORECAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL YIELD
RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW. REGARDLESS...THINKING THE PATTERN
WILL BECOME DISTURBED ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/TSTORMS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON
READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
MVFR/PATCHY IFR VALLEY FOG EXPECTED IN FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS
GENERALLY 08-12Z. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS AFTER 12Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TONIGHT OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT IN
QUESTION AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             FRI 07/31/15
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/26/DTC
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...SL



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