Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 290542
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
142 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds gradually break today as high pressure arrives. A warm
front pushes in Thursday, ahead of a system that crosses
Thursday night and Friday. High pressure builds in for Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Wednesday...

Secondary cold front exiting the CWA early this morning with any
isolated showers/drizzle ending. Dense layer of stratus in place
under northerly flow. This will gradually break up today. There
always seems to be an area covering a handful of counties where
the clouds linger longer than expected. Quite often this is
somewhere in the Kanawha Valley to Tri-State region. With this
in mind, did increase cloud cover along I-64 across the lowlands
into mid afternoon. Also dropped temps a few degrees in this
area. In reality, there will probably be a much sharper gradient
to the clouds than the forecast shows, so confidence not the
highest on exactly how the clouds/temps evolve today.

Winds gradually turn east to southeast tonight. This could lead
to some rain/drizzle in the low level moisture trapped along
the eastern slope late tonight. Opted to keep the forecast for
tonight dry right now but do have clouds increasing ahead of an
approaching warm front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 420 PM Tuesday...

Mid and high warm advection cloud spills over the ridge,
emanating from the next southern stream upper level low
approaching from the west. This may bring rain Thursday, but
the bulk of the rain with this system is more likely overnight
Thursday night and Friday.

As a warm front pushes northward through the area on Thursday,
moisture increases and, coupled with the heating of the day and
moderate to strong mid level flow, could lead to late day
thunderstorms across southwest portions of the forecast area.
This activity should then wane with the loss of heating Thursday
night. Thunder is again possible Friday afternoon over the
lowlands, but with a CAD wedge holding up the warm front,
surface based instability is not likely to be realized farther
east.

The upper low pushes east Friday night, leaving just upslope
rain showers in and near the mountains, and lots of clouds area
wide, by Saturday morning.

Central guidance looked good for temperatures in this continued
above normal spring pattern.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 420 PM Tuesday...

Exiting low pressure brings clouds, and upslope rain showers in
and near the mountains, on Saturday. Loss of heating and high
pressure building in dries the weather out quickly Saturday
night, and the dry weather continues on Sunday. The next in the
parade of southern stream bowling balls crosses early next week.

Central guidance looked good for temperatures in this continued
above normal spring pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 140 AM Wednesday...

Low stratus will bring MVFR to IFR through much of the morning
as northerly flow continues. Cut back a bit on IFR coverage
across the lowlands based on recent guidance. Clouds should
gradually break up late this morning and this afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset of IFR ceilings tonight and
improvement Wednesday morning may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             WED 03/29/17
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    L    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    M

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...MZ



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