Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 041911
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
311 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EVER PRESENT WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS SPELL MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.
SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MUGGIES THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS CONVECTION FIRING FROM THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ALONG A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH/WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE...THE
BULK OF THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY REMAINS THE SAME. NOT GOING
TO GIVE UP ON THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS IN TERMS OF POPS...AND
WILL KEEP THEM IN CHANCE...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY END UP BEING SLIGHTLY
OVER DONE.

ONE OF THE CHANGES WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...MIXING OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE MOUNTAINS COOLER BY A SLIGHTLY
GREATER TEMPERATURE GAP FROM THE LOWLANDS THAN NORMAL...KEEPING
PLACES LIKE SNOWSHOE 15-20 DEGREES OFF THE LOWLAND PACE AND BKW
CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STAGNANT PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AMID UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE E
CONUS. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS OVER THE REGION THAT
COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...THERE SHOULD BE DIURNAL POPCORN
SHRA/TSRA MAXIMIZED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AMID SOME SE FLOW.
STILL...LOW POPS WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RUN
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND DEWPOINTS ON THE MUGGY SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH
JUST AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. PATTERN FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK TOWARD
THURSDAY WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AMID A TRANSITION MORE INTO A E
CONUS TROF. THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION LOOKS TO
CROSS LONG ABOUT THURSDAY WITH A GOOD SHOT A MUCH NEEDED RAIN
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION MAINLY CENTERED ON THE MOUNTAINS AS OF 17Z TODAY...SO
WILL PUT VCTS/CB IN AT CKB AND EKN. USING LARGELY A PERSISTENCE
TYPE FORECAST WHEN POSSIBLE GIVEN THE LACK OF CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. BASED THE FOG THREAT TONIGHT ON
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION...AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE TERRIBLE
SIDE...DUMPING ALL RIVER VALLEY TERMINALS INTO LIFR WHEN THERE
TENDS TO BE MORE UNCERTAINTY AND BOUNCING OF THE OBS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NEED AMENDMENTS AND TEMPOS IF STORMS
FORM/MOVE TOWARDS TERMINALS AT ANYTIME. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING NEXT SEVERAL
NTS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26


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