Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 281831
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
131 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRATUS DECK FINALLY BREAKING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT
STILL A CHILLY DAY. HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN INCREASING LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. HAVE
WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY. INITIALLY...LOW LEVELS ARE
VERY DRY SO ANTICIPATE LOTS OF VIRGA TO START. WITH THE DRY LOW
LEVELS...WILL ALSO SEE SOME WET BULBING AND IN NW PART OF CWA
COULD SEE BRIEF SLEET AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. HAVE A SMALL AMOUNT
OF FREEZING RAIN IN PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES...BUT WITH THE WET
BULBING THIS COULD JUST AS EASILY BE SLEET. ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...ANY PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO RAIN BY MID MORNING.
SNOW/SLEET WILL LINGER AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WV MOUNTAINS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. SLOWED DOWN
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS NEW GFS
AND NAM ARE BOTH SLOWER. DID NOT GO QUITE AS SLOW AS THE MODELS AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP OFTEN SEEMS TO ARRIVE SOONER THAN EXPECTED.

AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT TONIGHT...HAVE NON DIURNAL
TREND FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN BEGIN WARMING SOME PRE-DAWN IN
SE OHIO AS 925MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 5C IN KHTS AREA BY 09Z. IT
MAY TAKE A LITTLE WHILE FOR THE INVERSION TO BREAK...SO TIMING OF
THE WARM-UP IS UNCERTAIN...BUT IT SHOULD BE QUICK ONCE IT HAPPENS.
SPENDING MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL PROVIDE A NICE
WARM-UP WITH TEMPS INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...AND EVEN
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MANY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL SEE A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLDER
AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION AS CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. ALONG WITH THE COLDER AIR...WILL SEE A GRADUAL LOSS OF
MOISTURE...SO ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...WITH BETTER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AS SNOW RATIOS INCREASE IN THE COLDER AIR.
STILL FIGURING ON SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES...BUT AT THIS POINT...AM NOT GETTING
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION IN THE HWO
IN CASE THE FORECAST CHANGES.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP...CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES WILL SEE
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG RIDGE TOPS...BUT AT THIS
POINT...DO NOT SEE COUNTY AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS SEEM TO BE AT A CROSS ROADS ON HOW TO HANDLE THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM. MODELS AGREE IN A PACIFIC SYSTEM CUTTING UNDER THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND CLOSING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT DROPPING OVER THIS WESTERN UPPER RIDGE
INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
DIVERGE MORE SO THAN YESTERDAY. THE 12Z GFS PUTS ALMOST ALL ITS
EMPHASIS ON LEAVING MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW ENERGY IN
PLACE AND DRIVING THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE 12Z NAM THRU 84 HOURS HINTS AT THIS
ALSO. THE 12Z CMC STILL WANTS TO PHASE THE TWO STREAMS AND DRIVE A
STRONG LOW UP TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE SREF AND 00Z UKMET/EURO
ARE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...IN COORDINATION
WITH WPC GRAPHICS...CHOSE TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN
PLACE...WHICH CARRIES A DECENT CHUNK OF SOUTHERN ENERGY JUST OUT
AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THIS SCENARIO HAS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO TOWARD SOUTHWEST PA ON
SUNDAY...THEN DRIVING A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. SO...SENSIBLE WEATHER INCLUDES AN INITIALLY WINTRY MIX
EARLY SUNDAY...THEN MOSTLY RAIN DURING SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY
SOUTHEAST OHIO NEAR THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THEN CHANGING TO SNOW EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR
RUSHES BACK IN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING WITH A GOOD WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FIELD WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW.
SNOW SHOWERS THEN WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU MID WEEK. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY....ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXCEPT FOR THE BRIEF WARMUP SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.



&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW STRATUS HAS FINALLY SCATTERED OUT AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT BKW
AND EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN SOON...STILL SOME MVFR ALONG WESTERN
SLOPES. MAYBE A FEW STRATOCU POPPING UP THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...BUT STAYING VFR. HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN INCREASING
LATE...IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WILL HAVE A WARM FRONT
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOWERING CLOUDS AND LOWLAND RAIN/HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW. KEPT TAF SITES VFR IN RAIN...BUT IFR IS EXPECTED
WITH THE SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
TONIGHT...STARTING TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SW TOMORROW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: MVFR MAY HANG ON AT BKW AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER.
TIMING OF PRECIP TOMORROW MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION AND THEN IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY
MORNING IN SNOW SWITCHING TO RAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ








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