Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 020604
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
152 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED THE POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE ENTER SEPTEMBER...THE LATE SUMMER PATTERN SEEMS TO HOLD...AS
WE RESIDE WHERE FRONTS COME TO WEAKEN/DIE.  THE SOUTHERN RIDGE
OCCASIONALLY WEAKENS ALLOWING FRONT IN THE WESTERLIES TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA...BUT WEAKEN AS THEY TRY TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH.  SUCH IS
THE CASE TUESDAY NIGHT.

DRYING ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH MORE STABLE
AIR...BUT WILL BE LESS AGGRESSIVE DROPPING THE SURFACE DEW POINTS
TOO MUCH WITH THE EXPECTED WET VEGETATION. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT
CHC POPS IN FAR SW VIRGINIA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PICTURE LOTS OF LOW STRATUS AT DAWN WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO TRI STATE AROUND HTS.  DID NOT
INCLUDE SURFACE FOG YET...BUT THAT MAY ALSO OCCUR.

WITH SOME WEAK SE FLOW DEVELOPING THURSDAY...DID CONTINUE OUR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING UP THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BECKLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEATING BACK UP...AS THE SOUTHERN 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTH FOR
FRIDAY.  SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD OCCUR FRIDAY...BUT POPS
MOSTLY 20 AND 30 PERCENT.

PER WPC MEDIUM COORDINATION...CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER THAN THE GFS
ON THE NEXT FRONT. 12Z GFS QUICKLY DRIES OUT OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY.  PREFER THE SLOWER ECWMF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME...INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. HOLDING SOME CHANCE POPS EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.  DRY MONDAY...EXCEPT AGAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TUESDAY THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTHEAST WV WILL END BY
10Z...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WIND TO KEEP SIGNIFICANT FOG OUT OF THE PICTURE EARLY THIS MORNING.

AFTER 12Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND LOSE DEFINITION AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR WILL PREVAIL
TODAY. ALSO...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME
MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS.

AFTER 00Z...FRONT LOSES DEFINITION AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS AND WINDS DECREASING...EXPECTING MVFR TO
IFR RIVER AND VALLEY FOG TO FORM BY 06Z...AFFECTING MOST OF THE
MAJOR TERMINALS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY
BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. ONSET OF FOG TONIGHT MAY BE DELAYED IF CLOUDS
HANG ON LONGER.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 09/02/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN RIVER AND VALLEY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JMV









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