Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 161335
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
835 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front just south of our area lifts north as a warm
front through early morning. Cold front Tuesday night. Another
system for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 830 AM Monday...
Only minor tweaks made to hourly pop grids. Otherwise, no
changes necessary.

Previous discussion follows...

Area of mainly light rain continues to drift east through the
WV mountains as a weak surface boundary meanders through. With
slight ridging aloft and little surface focus decreased POPs
some through the remainder of this morning. Still...cannot rule
out areas of light rain with the boundary in the area.

That same story lingers through much of today, with some light
rain possible -- especially across the northern CWA and
mountains -- but there should be `dry` time too. Temperatures
will once again be above normal.

As a surface low heads into the western Great Lakes tonight a
weak warm front slides through the Ohio River Valley. With some
support from a 500mb ripple/ vort max have POPs increasing late
this evening and tonight...with likely POPs for the Ohio River
Valley and northern WV after midnight. Expecting a warm night
tonight...if you can call 40s and 50s warm. Have a non-diurnal
trend after midnight as WAA picks up on the southerly flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...

A cold front crosses Tuesday for another half to an inch of QPF
area wide. Despite the name, the overall atmosphere is quite
warm for this time of year and no snow is expected with this
front. In fact, we may even see an isolated thunderstorm fire
along the front.

A strong vort max crosses Wednesday for shower where the
highest elevations may see a changeover to snow.

We get a brief break Wednesday evening into most of Thursday as
high pressure builds.

The next system approaches Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM Monday...

Inclement weather pattern continues with a organized system
expected Friday followed by another potentially heavy rain
system late in the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 610 AM Monday...

Not a lot of confidence in this forecast with models struggling
to even depict current situation well. Overall, have IFR
ceilings and fog across the south. Farther north, clouds have
been struggling to lower so keep mainly MVFR. Some guidance,
like the GLAMP25 wants to keep IFR in place through most of the
day. On the flip side, the 4k NAM dissipates any IFR very
quickly this morning.

Went with the idea that any fog and low stratus should
gradually dissipate through mid morning, with MVFR to VFR
expected for the bulk of the day under southerly flow.

Rain moves back in tonight...especially across the west and
north. MVFR to IFR expected in the rain tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low through morning then medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of category changes may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EST 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    L    M    L    L    M    M    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    M    M    L    H    M    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    L    M    L    M    L    L    M    L

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible Tuesday and Tuesday night in rain and then
lingering low stratus through Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/SL
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...MZ



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