Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 261538
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1138 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure in control today. Mostly dry cold fronts later
Wednesday and again Friday. High pressure for the weekend. A
return to normal temperatures last half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1135 AM Tuesday...

No significant changes were necessary to the near term forecast.
Ridge of high pressure remains in control today. Still have a
small possibility of sprinkles or a very brief light shower from
cu deck in higher terrain this afternoon if enough vertical
development can occur...but chances for this look to be slim.

Tonight, clear and cool once again, with patchy valley fog. With
another day of drying on tap, fog formation will once again be
late in most locations, except for sheltered mountainous
valleys.

Wednesday, one more hot day before relief in site. An upper
shortwave trough and surface cold front will approach the area
later in the day Wednesday. Could be a few showers later in the
day Wednesday across the north, but most areas will remain dry.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 AM Tuesday...

Amplifying northern stream upper trough over the northeastern
CONUS allows a cold front to sweep across the Ohio Valley later
Wednesday and Wednesday night, and pushes Maria out to sea with
no effect on our area. This will be a moisture starved front
thanks in great part to Maria, although with the help of diurnal
heating we have just a slight chance of a light shower across
the far north with the front later Wednesday. Another moisture
starved cold front will drop across the area Friday, with only a
slight chance of a light shower across the far north. The big change
behind these fronts will be a return to near normal temperatures
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 310 AM Tuesday...

Upper ridging again builds over the Ohio valley with high
pressure and dry weather dominating this period. Temperatures
will still be near normal through the weekend, but a slow waring
trend is in store for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 635 AM Tuesday...

Conditions to improve from valley fog shortly after 12Z this
morning, leading to VFR through at least 03Z tonight, when
inconsistent valley fog will being to form again. Expecting a
more robust cumulus field over the mountains today, but still
VFR and very low shower chances.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, density, and location of fog may vary.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
Morning valley fog possible through Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...26


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